As Uncertainties Rise, Performance Falls: What Can We Do?

We have four kids, and at the beginning of every week, my wife and I have some semblance of what our collective schedules look like. School, cross country, volleyball, tutoring, practices, games, pickups, drop-offs, and whatever else happens to be going on. And that’s to say nothing of our work schedule, appointments, and other “duties as assigned.”

And then the week starts.

A practice changes. Someone needs to stay after school. An activity gets added. A kid forgets something. A meeting goes late. One schedule overlaps another. None of these things, by themselves, are particularly difficult. But stack enough of them together and something changes. I get less patient. I have a harder time concentrating. I start jumping from one thing to the next, and sometimes I spend more energy trying to regain control of the schedule than actually dealing with what is right in front of me.

It’s a small example of a much bigger reality we’ve been thinking about with leaders here at Leadership Vision:

As uncertainties rise, performance falls.

That statement has become central to how we understand our work because uncertainty is the backdrop of modern leadership. It doesn’t just test what leaders know—it tests how leaders adapt to ongoing change.

Our work is about helping leaders and teams transform uncertainty into opportunity.

That sounds good, of course. But what does it actually look like when you’re the one in the middle of the uncertainty?

How Does Uncertainty Affect Leadership Performance?

We’re used to dealing with change. A project shifts direction. A new leader comes in. Someone leaves the team. A client changes their mind. Most of the time, we adapt and keep going.

The challenge comes when those things begin to stack. Your organization is changing while your team is changing, technology is changing how you work, and you’re trying to understand what all of it means for your own role.

Linda sees this even among high performers—people who are accustomed to succeeding and suddenly find themselves wondering, Why am I struggling with this? Why can’t I do what I normally do?

That struggle doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve become worse at your job. It may mean the environment has changed enough that the way you’ve always operated isn’t working as well anymore.

Recognizing that can change how we respond.

Name What Is Actually Uncertain

When I feel uncertain, my natural response is to make another plan, get more information, think further ahead, study the Google calendar harder, or just try to solve whatever is making me uncomfortable.

Sometimes that works. Sometimes. But plenty of things are simply outside our control.

Brian has helped me think differently about this. Instead of immediately trying to fix the situation, start by naming it: What am I actually uncertain about right now?

Maybe you’re waiting on a decision. Maybe you’re worried about your team’s future. Maybe you don’t know how AI will change your role. Naming the uncertainty gets it out of the vague cloud floating around in your head and gives you enough distance to look at it rather than simply react.

Then you can ask a more useful question: What can I actually do about this?

Reconnect With What Is Certain Within You

One of my favorite ideas from Brian when we recorded this is:

“Uncertainty that’s around us is an opportunity for us to reconnect with what’s within us.”

When everything around us feels unstable, our attention naturally goes outward. What’s changing? What am I missing? What’s going to happen next?

But we can also ask: What do I know to be true? What strengths have helped me through difficult situations before? Who are the people I trust? What can I control today?

You may not know what happens next. That doesn’t mean you know nothing.

Give Yourself 10 Minutes to Think

Linda offered one practice that I love because of how simple it is: schedule five or ten minutes to stare out the window.

No phone. No podcast. No book. No attempt to squeeze in one more email. Just stop and take a moment for your own well-being.

…just having a moment to look at nothing and wait for the new idea and wait for all the ideas that are swimming around to just start to come into focus.

The point isn’t that staring out the window magically solves problems. For leaders who spend their days consuming information, making decisions, and responding to people, ten minutes of nothing can feel unproductive. And maybe that’s exactly why we need it.

Turn Uncertainty Into Opportunity

Transforming uncertainty into opportunity doesn’t mean pretending everything is fine or forcing positivity onto something genuinely difficult. It means becoming curious about what could happen next.

What might be possible here? What could I try? What might I learn? Who could help me?

I joked with Brian and Linda that my favorite show growing up was MacGyver. Every episode basically dropped this guy into an impossible situation and said, “Okay, figure it out.” Usually with duct tape.

Maybe there’s something useful in that mindset. Uncertainty doesn’t always have to be something we escape. It can become a place where we experiment, adapt, learn, and discover a different way forward.

The uncertainty around us isn’t going away. So perhaps the goal isn’t to become more certain. It’s to become better at leading when we aren’t—to stay grounded in what we know, adaptable in how we respond, and open to what might be possible next.