Why a GOP House majority is ‘almost impossible’

Republicans have been publicly making deluded predictions about their chances at victory in the midterms, with GOP leaders saying that they’ll not only keep control of the House but actually expand their majority.

But the nonpartisan Cook Political Report said Friday that it will be nearly “impossible” for Republicans to keep the House.

“The worsening political environment for Republicans has made the GOP’s chances of keeping control of the chamber almost impossible,” the outlet wrote on X.

Indeed, the Cook Political Report changed 15 race ratings to favor Democrats:

• New Jersey’s 7th District, held by GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr., is now a “Lean Democratic” race. As is Arizona’s open 1st District, which President Donald Trump carried by 3 points in 2024.
• Three other seats that Trump easily carried—Florida’s 22nd District (Trump +10), North Carolina’s 11th District (Trump +9.5), and Texas’ 15th District (Trump +17.9)—are now “Toss Up.” Despite all of those seats being gerrymandered by the GOP, they are still struggling to win.
• Six more seats Trump won handily in 2024—Colorado’s 5th District (Trump +9), Florida’s 13th District (Trump +13.3), Florida’s 27th District (Trump +14.6), Montana’s 1st District (Trump +11.6), Texas’ 35th District (Trump +10.5), and Wisconsin’s 1st District (Trump +4.5)—are now “Lean Republican.”
• And four GOP-held seats that were safely Republican are now on the map, including Nevada’s 2nd District.

All told, the Cook Political Report expects Democrats to net five to 15 seats—a total it said could grow as the election nears.

These changes come as Republicans are grieving their odds, admitting that their own internal polling is just as bad—if not worse—than what public polling shows.

Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot has grown to 8.1% over the GOP, according to political analyst Nate Silver. That’s a 2-point increase since Labor Day, the unofficial kickoff to the general election.

Meanwhile, the conditions leading to the GOP’s troubles—like high gas prices sparked by Trump’s war in Iran—are unlikely to abate before early voting begins in a number of key states. That means that Republicans have vanishingly little time to change their fate.

It’s so bad that Republicans are now sweating in Florida—a state that has trended far to the right in recent years but is showing erosion thanks to anger over the increased cost of living.

“We are not on life support. But we are hemorrhaging,” an unnamed Florida GOP county chair told Politico. “The question is: Do we stop the bleeding now, or wait until we reach critical conditions?”

Democrats are also on the march in Kansas, where GOP Sen. Roger Marshall is struggling against Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton. It’s so bad that Vice President JD Vance even went to the state to campaign, and Democrats are now thinking of injecting cash into the race.

And Republicans are now starting to privately admit that they’ll lose their Senate seat in Texas to Democrat James Talarico.

“It’s going to take a Herculean effort to hold the seat,” an unnamed Texas GOP operative bracing told Politico.

This year’s midterms are gearing up to be a bloodbath for the GOP. Good.

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