Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics or culture.
As polls turn further toward Democrats ahead of November’s midterm elections, one might expect Republican pollsters to try to cut against that narrative and release some data to put a damper on all this blue-wave talk. But so far, they generally aren’t doing that.
A spate of new surveys from GOP-affiliated pollsters show Democrats well positioned across key Senate races.
In Texas’ Senate contest, two Republican polls show Democratic nominee James Talarico ahead of Republican nominee Ken Paxton. One from InsiderAdvantage shows Talarico up 2 points, while another, from SoCal Strategies, has him leading Paxton by 5 points.
One InsiderAdvantage poll even shows a close race in South Carolina’s Senate race: Democratic nominee Annie Andrews trails Republican Sen. Darline Graham by just 2 points. That is remarkable for a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024 by 18 points, and where no Democratic Senate nominee has lost by less than 9.6 points since the 1990s.
Notably, the only nonpartisan poll released since the start of July, from Abacus Data, showed Graham ahead of Andrews by 13 points.
Trafalgar Group, a GOP pollster infamous for its opaque methodology, finds the Democratic Senate candidates ahead in Michigan (D+2), North Carolina (D+6), and Georgia (D+7). All of those results are roughly in line with those from nonpartisan firms, despite Trafalgar having a track record of bias toward Republican candidates.
Iowa is also up for grabs, according to Cygnal’s new poll, which was sponsored by a right-wing group called Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation. The survey finds Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson tied at 43%, though they don’t advertise that data in the sponsor’s press release. You have to look at the poll’s full PDF to find it.
The largest difference between nonpartisan and GOP pollsters comes in Kansas. A new poll from Emerson College shockingly found Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Sen. Roger Marshall by 2 points, 45% to 43%. Meanwhile, GOP-aligned pollster co/efficient finds Marshall up 5 points over Hamilton. However, even if co/efficient’s result is borne out in November, it would represent a massive underperformance from Marshall. The Sunflower State hasn’t had a Democratic senator since 1932, and since 1980, Republican Senate candidates there have won by 33 points on average.
To take control of the Senate, Democrats need to pick up four seats on net. The best route runs through defending their competitive seats in Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire, then flipping four Republican-held seats, such as those in North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, or elsewhere.
If the November results exactly follow the recent polling from Republican firms, then Democrats would pick up three Senate seats on net this year—not enough to take the majority, yet a result that was hard to fathom roughly two years ago. (The Maine Senate race is tied in the one GOP-aligned poll released since July. If that seat flipped as well, it would give Democrats a majority.)
Despite their partisan affiliation, these Republican pollsters meet the standards for inclusion in popular polling aggregators, like those from The New York Times, Silver Bulletin, and FiftyPlusOne. And Republican pollsters have generally been better about predicting their party’s electoral performance in GOP-leaning environments, like the 2024 presidential election.
That these pollsters now show Democrats leading or narrowly trailing in multiple red-state Senate races, in an electoral environment expected to strongly favor Democrats, suggests that Team Blue has a solid shot at retaking the chamber.
Another good sign for Democrats is that the party’s campaigns and affiliated groups have released far more polls than their Republican counterparts. Among surveys added to the Times’ database, nearly 32 polls with Democratic sponsors have been released since the start of September, compared with only 10 polls paid for by GOP groups, as of Friday afternoon. (Only polls with named candidates are included in the count. If one poll surveyed two races, it is counted as two separate polls.)
In general, you’d expect both sides to try to build a narrative of hope, releasing polls that show their preferred candidates ahead or within spitting distance. But Republican groups have been less forthcoming this cycle, and it’s likely because the data really is that bad for the GOP.
Any updates?
- President Donald Trump may be perfectly fine with artificial intelligence advancing to a terrifying degree, but the public isn’t. A new YouGov poll finds that 49% of Americans are somewhat or very concerned that AI could bring about the end of human life on Earth. Yikes.
- Gas prices are rising just ahead of the midterms, and a strong majority of the nation knows who to blame: the Republican Party. Sixty-one percent of likely voters say that the GOP is more responsible for high fuel prices, while only 31% say the Democratic Party is more responsible, per a new Data for Progress poll. Especially dangerous for Republicans is the fact that even 36% of Republican voters see the GOP as more to blame.
Vibe check
Election seasons can be an anxious time, so it’s important to relax, and for many Americans, that means cracking open a cold one or sparking up a jazz cigarette.
Fifty-four percent of Americans drink alcohol, marking a sharp drop from 67% in 2022, according to Gallup. Filling that gap seems to be marijuana use, which has risen from 7% in 2013 to 17% this year.
Meanwhile, the share of Americans who smoke cigarettes has flatlined around 11% since 2022, far below its high of 45% in 1954.
How do you unwind?
