
With the November midterm elections less than a month away, we are seeing signs that GOP conservatives are, at long last, having second thoughts about convicted felon and criminal president Donald J. Trump.
I’ll give you two examples. As I speak with conservative voters, including some who cast votes for Trump in three elections in a row, I’m increasingly hearing them say they feel betrayed — over his war of choice in the Middle East, over his reluctance to release the Epstein files, over his administration’s apparent focus on anything and everything but people’s No. 1 priority of bringing down the cost of living. Trump once said he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and his base would stand by him, but I think that’s finally starting to change, at least on the margin.
The second thing I would point you to is the exodus last winter of scholars, donors and board members from the Heritage Foundation. When the Heritage president, Kevin Roberts, proudly defended Tucker Carlson after Carlson hosted Nick Fuentes for a chummy interview, a number of conservatives suddenly awoke to the ideological extremism and moral rot that had taken root on parts of the right, and many people showed fairly decisively that, however they may feel about Trump, they wanted nothing to do with groyperism.
There’s a dawning recognition that Trump the man is an unreliable ally. He will say one thing on the campaign trail — no new wars! — but not feel the slightest bit constrained by his promises while in office. Another thing is the self-dealing: the genuine corruption of historic proportions in which the president’s powers are being abused to enrich his allies and family members, sometimes at taxpayer expense. People see that and wonder what happened to draining the swamp?
Many self-described national conservatives, including Hazony and the aforementioned Kevin Roberts, bet all their chips on Trump and Trumpism as the future of the conservative movement. That bet looks at the very least more questionable now. Polling suggests that the American people do not believe the MAGA agenda is delivering for them. This is going to be a definite challenge for the folks who have turned their whole intellectual and institutional purpose to the promotion of what I call “will-to-power politics” on the theory that this is what voters really want.
It’s an approach that sees politics as purely a war to determine which side will get to wield power to reward its friends and punish its enemies. On the right, it explicitly repudiates the old-school Reagan-style commitment to limited government and free markets and instead calls on conservatives to be more “muscular” and less squeamish about using the coercive power of the state to enact their values and their conception of the common good.
At the end of the day, hatred toward the opposition is treated as a virtue. The goal, above all, is to defeat and destroy the other side rather than try to figure out how to coexist peacefully in a diverse society of 342 million people.
Max Weber has a famous definition of the state as the entity with a monopoly on the use of violence in society. Whatever government does inevitably involves imposing a one-size-fits-all solution from the top down.
The alternative is to let people join together to form associations that reflect their values and allow them to pursue shared goals. In the nongovernmental sphere of life, nobody is coerced; people can opt in or out. As a result we don’t have to treat every election or policy disagreement as a battle to the death about which group’s way of life will be imposed on society as a whole.
Healthy pluralism relies on a rich patchwork of overlapping civil society institutions that are competing and collaborating to meet people’s needs. But civil society does best when government takes a light touch.
I really want us to get out of the habit of reflexively assuming that the best solution to any social problem is to pass a law. Government is a blunt instrument, as libertarians like to say. And if you haven’t done the hard, slow work of persuasion, of shaping the culture, of changing hearts and minds, passing a law often fails to solve the problem and can even make it worse.
We should see ourselves as on the front lines of solving problems in our communities, not as mere taxpayers who have outsourced responsibility to some faraway government bureaucracy to solve things for us.
Trump has “become a real liability” for GOP candidates, said The Boston Globe. Senate candidates Ashley Hinson of Iowa and Mike Rogers of Michigan called for an end to the war with Iran, as did incumbent Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio. (Husted voted Thursday against a measure to withdraw troops, however.) The break “isn’t about just one issue,” either. Rep. Maria Salazar (R-Fla.) last week criticized the president’s immigration policy, while Sen. John Curtis (R-Utah) called for an investigation into the Russian oligarch who paid for Donald Trump Jr.’s wedding reception. There may be nothing “stopping a full-on revolt” against Trump’s brand.
MAGA acolytes could once argue that Trump’s agenda is “what Americans voted for in 2024,” Jim Geraghty said at The Washington Post. But polls now suggest that the electorate is “sick and tired of this version of Trump” and that “Trumpism is exhausted.” The mood was especially apparent in Vice President JD Vance’s recent plea to voters to “give us another chance.” That is not a “particularly inspiring rallying cry,” Geraghty said. Republicans have to decide if they still want to be the party of tariffs, enmity toward Canada and mass deportations to remove every “agricultural worker, hotel maid and restaurant busboy.” Vance, if he wants to save his own ambitions, will need to lead the way. “The clock is ticking.”
The GOP under Trump has “blown one of the great opportunities in political history,” Gerard Baker said at The Wall Street Journal. Trump’s election in 2024 was a “real chance to establish a new governing order” favorable to conservatives, and the president could have succeeded by controlling the border, reining in prices and keeping the U.S. out of “costly, ineffective” foreign wars. Trump instead has “widened the deficit,” levied tariffs and set off on a “reckless military adventure” that is damaging the U.S. economy. All due to “hubris, vanity, recklessness” and the GOP’s “abdication of accountability.”
Polling shows that Trump is “slipping significantly with his own party,” pollster G. Elliott Morris said at Strength in Numbers. His approval rating with Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters remains high at 71%. But that is still an “11-point drop and the lowest we have recorded.” Those GOP defections have helped drive the president’s overall voter approval ratings to new lows.
Assuming the polls are right –and that is always an assumption and not a fact–Democrats and moderates could take control of Congress in the midterms. That could, and should, be the beginning of the end of Trump’s criminal presidency.
That possible future depends on voter turnout and whether or not his MAGA Maggots stay home or keep a wannabe dictator and criminal in the White House.