Hey, if Alabama is gonna make charting these games easy for me, I’m all here for it! Every season has its share of data storytelling — games that weren’t all they appeared to be; some coulda-woulda-shoulda’s — but since 2020 there have been a higher share of those (including in the late Saban years), as well as a few real duds:
This season we’ve had shades of nuance, including charting some “whiplash” performances in the comebacks vs. Kentucky and Florida State. But the team — the offense especially — seems to be rounding into form just in time, and it’s made graphing these games a relative breeze. (Dare I say, akin to some peak mid-late Saban years? Let’s not get ahead of ourselves …)
Easy street: practical dominance
Listen, it wasn’t perfect: we knew we were going into a noisy redneck rough away environment against a QB, Kamario Taylor, that had a lot of deserved hype behind him. So you take the blows where they come and live with some ups and downs. But to end the first half with a >80% win likelihood is a good feeling, and zipping it up to a >95% chance early in the 3rd quarter is just fine and dandy.
I had reason to believe Alabama would be fine in this one (and posted accordingly), but you never know with individual game performance. But I’m feeling validated in this one: ‘Bama’s defense couldn’t zero out the MSU Bulldogs, but they did plenty to put them in their place while the offense feasted on an I-told-you-so weaker Miss State defense.
I mean, heck, it took eight plays until the offense actually put up an unsuccessful play. And we only had three the entire first quarter.
From there it wasn’t always cheery: in the 2nd quarter the passing offense shelled up, and the rushing offense also followed it down from its divine first quarter. But Keelon rallied, finding Lotzier for 50, then RCW for 22, and then Trayshawn Brown punched in the TD. Back on schedule.
They didn’t stop in the 2nd half either: that Passing SR line trended back up into well above average territory, and the running game thundered through the 4th quarter to nearly reach a 70% Rushing SR before a few merciful kneel-downs at the end.
So in the end, the totals look something like a 60% total SR to MSU’s 35%. In SEC play, that’s domination.
The Tide’s Explosive Rate (XR) wasn’t quite as remarkable, but was solidly high at 17%. More notable was a 7% XR from the Bulldogs, which is absolute dregs and really not what you’d expect from a “battle of great QB’s.” (Maybe there’s something to the rumors about Kamario’s health; and/or the Bulldogs just finally played a flagship conference team).
Even with that 2nd quarter “lull,” you can see the overall evenness in the Game Wave. Sure, Mississippi State closed out that 2nd quarter with a long (and fast) drive, but Alabama put up touchdowns in every quarter, and multiple scores in every quarter (albeit with the first quarter including a contribution from the Defense).
Note how “flat” the Tide’s is compared to MSU, too: they were burning clock and moving the ball, keeping things on schedule instead of the boom-or-bust effect we’ve seen before (and we saw from the other sideline).
Just compare the Drive charts for another view of how consistent Alabama’s offense was:
I mean, that’s remarkable, even for our recent “pretty good to great” offenses. We only had 4 drives all day that were less than 6 plays, and that includes turnovers and that opening 5-play scoring drive (with a 100% SR).
Meanwhile, Kamario and co. had a few feisty drives in them: they scratched together a 12-play, 11-play, 10-play, and an 8-play drive in this game. (Yes, most while the result was solidly in hand). Otherwise, lots of 3-and-outs, a few turnovers, and dust.
But let’s find something to complain about, shall we? Wouldn’t be an “analytics” article without that.
I actually had to go into the Box score to find some sour nuggets:
- The explosiveness really wasn’t as high as we expected for either team, with MSU beating Tide with a middling 1.31 (to our even-more-middling 1.22) in the Explosiveness Index.
- MSU’s late downs efficiency was workable, with a league-average-ish 41% 3rd down conversion rate, aided by a 100% (2/2) 4th down conversion rate. In close games, that stuff counts.
- The Tide was +2 in Turnover Margin, but in a game where they did have 2 turnovers.
- And the Bulldogs had 4 sacks on Keelon, mostly in the first half. (Albeit, Alabama had 5).
Oh, and how about this Anthony Evans III fella on Miss State’s team?
That is a heck of a game from Mr. Evans. This looks more like a Devonta Smith line than anything we’ve seen around these parts for a few years.
But, hey, one breakout receiver performance does not necessarily add up to a win (or even close to it). Let’s get a palette cleanser in Crimson:
Ahh, that’s more like it. Keelon was slingin’ it this week, delivering 7 explosive passes across 5 receivers — yep, that Noah Rodgers explosive was actually from Austin Mack — plus a few more targets for successful catches.
I’m happy (if a little surprised) to report that Rico Scott is somewhere towards the top of our rotation, and he technically caught the most successful catches of anyone this week; it’s Rico’s first “game leading line” as far as I can recall.
So obviously, Keelon’s passer line looks great this week … if, a little short? I kept re-checking the numbers here, but it seems like Keelon just did a lot of good work with only 22 pass attempts.
So his efficiency speaks volumes here: that’s a 63.6% Passing SR with a 31.8% (!) Passing XR. Yep, about 1 in every 3 passes that Keelon threw went for >15 yards.
Look, Grubb and co. weren’t exactly leaning heavily onto the run during all of this one — we were in “pass first” territory for most of the second half, in fact — but when we did, we made it work.
That Rushing SR gap between the Tide and the Bulldogs — 65% to their 20% — is about the biggest gap I’ve seen in either phase of the game from the Tide this year. Wow, more of that stuff, please!
And the ordering of the backs feels a lot different this week, to boot. Trayshawn Brown — [insert comment about his being a 3-star freshman] — easily led the way in this one, with a strong 57% Rushing SR on a team-leading 14 attempts.
But the height of this Rushers chart is crazy this week: we actually had more rushers than receivers this week, which is highly unusual!
- Daniel Hill and E.J. Crowell gave some “change of pace” in supporting roles this week.
- Keelon and Austin Mack both did a little timely scrambling (all successful rushes)
- Kevin Riley helped clean up at the end.
- A.K. Dear continues to get approx. 1 touch a game (I wonder what’s going on there)
- And some gadget runs to Marshall Pritchett and Rico Scott met mixed success. But it’s interesting putting this stuff on tape!
And that’s all she wrote. Or, at least, that’s all I wrote.
Surely, win or loss, I’ll have more nuanced things to gripe say about that game — hopefully in the “and we made it work anyway” vein — but for now, let’s savor the flavor of 5-0.
