Analysing how Matheus Cunha defies expected goals, and his role on United’s left flank – The Conventional Playmaker
The Champions League will include Manchester United for the first time in three seasons, following a 3-2 win at home over rivals Liverpool. It was also another match against a “big six” side, where Matheus Cunha contributed either a goal, or an assist, all whilst defying expected goals metrics, and playing on the left.
Albeit giving away two cheap goals in the second-half, forcing a 77th minute winner via Kobbie Mainoo, United fully deserved three points, especially given the display Michael Carrick’s put up during the first-half. And it was Cunha who put United ahead after only just 6 minutes. Cunha’s initial shot on the edge of the box was blocked, before his scuffed rebound effort deflected off of Alexis Mac Allister, passing by goalkeeper Freddie Woodman.
This was Cunha’s 9th goal of the campaign, with his tally also including goals against the likes of Chelsea, Aston Villa (home, and away), and league leaders Arsenal. These are goals against sides challenging for the top places in the Premier League table, were decisive goals in those important matches, and were also different types of goals.
Against Chelsea, Cunha ventured into the box, finishing emphatically from close range, following a low ball across from Fernandes on the right side. During the return fixture against Villa, Cunha’s off-ball run down the left was picked out by a clever pass, again from Fernandes, before Cunha dribbled into the box, slotting the ball past Emi Martinez. Cunha’s winner against Arsenal, meanwhile, was the result of close combination play, dragging numbers and creating space, before releasing Cunha to shoot from distance, wrapping the ball around Gabriel, using the defender as a wall, and into the bottom corner.
The majority of Cunha’s goals this season, excluding that against Bournemouth, with a rate of 0.64 xG, were also the result of chances with a low expected goals rate. Cunha’s shots tend to defy what is supposed to occur, according to expected goals.
For example, Cunha’s effort against Arsenal was 0.04 xG, as was his goal against Liverpool, whilst goals against Brighton, and Leeds United, were marginally higher at 0.05 xG, and 0.06 xG respectively. But these efforts also have to be taken into context. Against Liverpool, for example, Cunha’s goal came during a period in the match when United were dominating, against a fairly open defence, whereas United have also carried out low xG efforts against sturdier defences to less effect.
Cunha has scored 9 goals from an overall xG of 6.4, so much like last season, where Cunha scored 15 goals for Wolves from a rate of 8.6 xG, Cunha is overachieving with the shots he takes. His conversion rate of 11% is modest, and you could argue that Cunha should be more clinical; for reference, it is Casemiro and Benjamin Sesko who top the conversion rates table at United, with 18%, according to FBref. At the same time, many of these shots Cunha has taken that did not end up in the back of the net have at least tested the goalkeeper, with some having rattled off of the goalposts.
Yet gambling on the ball, shooting from distance, from tight angles and situations, has paid off for Cunha, for two seasons on the bounce. And according to the analysis of Mohammad Adnan, Cunha’s half chance conversation rate stands at 18.5%, which ranks in the 90th percentile Amongst wingers and attacking midfielders in the Premier League.
Whilst you may still understandably be wondering if expected goals will catch up with Cunha, which it could do, his formula for chances on goal, and scoring from them is by no means a fluke. It is the result of audaciousness on the ball that can pay off, positional tendencies, relationships with teammates, like Fernandes, and the manner in which United have attacked under Carrick.
United under Carrick have not been necessarily perfect, but they have been very effective at combining in close quarters, attacking via quick transitions, and attacking big spaces, whilst defending deeper, and compactly, consuming pressure before breaking. This is why they have surged up the table to 3rd since the turn of the new year, and Cunha has been a part of all of that whether starting, or coming off the bench. Cunha makes an impact, and that against includes the aforementioned big games. Against Manchester City, which was Carrick’s first match back in charge, Cunha was brought on, and provided the assist for Patrick Dorgu’s goal, to cap off a brilliant team display.
Cunha can start attacks with his dribbles to outwit marking, and pressure, and his deeper carries can bring the team forward. Both can draw fouls; Cunha has been fouled 51 times in the league this season, and that includes, winning two penalties. An all important 0-1 win away to Everton, saw Cunha kick off the counter by releasing the ball to the on-running Bryan Mbeumo, who laid the ball off to Sesko, who beat centre-back James Tarkowski for pace, before slotting home a first-time finish.
Cunha has played across the attack, but he has largely found himself on the left. This has occurred in a period where United have been without Patrick Dorgu due to injury, and in the process, United have had a different profile out wide. Dorgu offers balance, whereas Cunha is set on receiving the ball further infield, and playing the ball with his stronger right foot. He will move in between the lines across the attack to combine with teammates too. That includes Casemiro, who has assisted Cunha twice this season.
However, Cunha has become more accustom to attacking down the outside of the flank, whilst still able to combine with the left-back. Cunha started the 2-0 win against Tottenham Hotspur up front, but a switch to the left in the second-half proved seamless.
It is arguable, nevertheless, that United should sign an out and out winger, who is even more adept at staying wide and isolating full-backs 1v1. The idea of a new signing (or possibly Marcus Rashford if he returns), Cunha, and Dorgu, as options for the left-wing slot, offers tactical flexibility, and potential.
Whether he is starting on the left, or potentially through the middle, Cunha can continue to shoot from varying positions and situations, defying expected goals in the process.
Data courtesy of Fotmob, unless stated otherwise
