Flood of property listings triggers further price fall warnings across 56 major areas

The time it took properties in these areas to sell was also rising, prices had already dropped over the past 90-day reporting period, and the supply of listings was rising each month.

FoundIt head of research Kent Lardner said the hallmark of the areas flagged as about to be hit with heavier price falls was that they had recently been flooded with new supply, but the full impact of this increase had yet to fully impact prices.

Inventory was piling up fast, setting the stage for impending price adjustments as sellers competed for a shrinking pool of home buyers, Mr Lardner said.

It comes as multiple major banks have warned the current downturn in prices – the largest since 2018 – could become deeper than originally projected, with ANZ, CBA and NAB all recently revising their forecasts for home price falls downward.

FoundIt head of research Kent Lardner said the supply and demand dynamic had shifted across multiple areas.

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ANZ is now predicting a national peak-to-trough fall in prices of 10.6 per cent, while CBA has forecast a 9 per cent national fall. The NAB projection was 7 per cent.

FoundIt’s analysis revealed the types of areas that had the highest risk of further price falls varied across each major state:

QUEENSLAND

Queensland led the country in severe supply-demand imbalances, with previously booming outer suburbs and coastal belts suddenly saturated with unsold stock, the report revealed.

Many of the suburbs named as risky markets were in the Logan area of Brisbane, along with Brisbane’s North, and parts of the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast.

The Logan markets included the Browns Plains SA3 area, covering suburbs like Boronia Heights, Park Ridge and Greenbank, where the backlog of house listings was reported to be at 19.3 months worth of demand, while unit listings were equivalent to 8.4 months’ of demand.

Brisbane was one of the fastest growing housing markets in the years after the pandemic.

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House listing levels in the Sandgate area of Brisbane’s North were at about 9.2 months worth of demand.

Other Queensland SA3 areas noted to be due price falls were Sunnybank, in Brisbane-South, Chermside, and, on the Gold Coast, Southport and Robina. Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast was also mentioned.

NEW SOUTH WALES

NSW’s highest risk areas were conctreated around Sydney’s second CBD Parramatta and its surrounding regions.

Auction clearance rates have been near 50 per cent across Sydney for months. Picture: Sarah Wilson

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They included the suburb of Parramatta itself (houses). “Parramatta is the clearest case in Sydney of stock building in a market that still looks tight on paper,” the report said.

“Listings are up a third since May and inventory has climbed nearly two months in a quarter … for a market that turns over 553 house sales a year at a $1.65m median, a third more stock in three months is a material shift in the balance of negotiating power.”

Other markets red flagged were Baulkham Hills (units), Blacktown (units) and Merrylands-Guildford (houses). Houses in Fairfield, further to the southwest, were also included.

In regional NSW, the areas deemed most likely to see further price falls on account of rising stock levels and falling buyer demand were Tweed Valley (houses), Kiama-Shellharbour (units), Maitland (houses) and Coffs Harbour (units).

VICTORIA

Mr Lardner said Victoria had fewer at risk markets because prices in much of the state had already fallen over the past three years.

“Melbourne is the outlier, and not in the way people expect,” Mr Lardner said. “Melbourne’s correction is largely behind it. The city spent three years doing what Brisbane and Perth are only starting now.”

Melbourne was already in a downturn before a national correction began.

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Only three markets across Greater Melbourne were deemed as at risk of accelerated price falls: Mornington Peninsula (houses), Stonnington-West (units) and Dandenong (units).

The Mornington Peninsula stood out. “(Mornington) houses are the most convincing Melbourne entry,” the report said. “The correction here appears well advanced rather than beginning.”

In regional Victoria it was Baw Baw (houses), in the Latrope-Gippsland area, Ballarat (houses), and Wangaratta-Benalla (houses) in the Hume Region.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Only one market was highlighted in the research across South Australia: the Eyre Peninsula. The region includes the towns Whyalla and Port Lincoln.

“The Eyre Peninsula median is down nearly 9 per cent since May after a 19 per cent growth year.” Mr Lardner said.

South Australia had fewer affected markets.

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“Whyalla and Port Lincoln ran on a thin buyer base … both of those things reverse quickly,” Mr Lardner said.

Current house supply in the region was about 7.7 months’ worth of demand.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Perth’s position as the capital city market with the fastest growing house prices over recent years meant a lot of the city was particularly vulnerable to a price correction, FoundIt noted.

“Every boom ends the same way, not with a crash, but with the stock arriving faster than the buyers,” Mr Lardner said.

Perth real estate was booming only recently.

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The area of Canning, south of the CBD, was deemed the highest pressure house market in Western Australia, with house inventory equivalent to 11.3 months worth of current demand. Properties were spending more time on market and there were genuine affordability constraints emerging for buyers after years of rampant growth in prices.

Houses in Kalamundra, Joondalup, and Gosnells were also considered high risk for an acceleration in price drops. South Perth had some of the most vulnerable unit prices.

FULL LIST

Parramatta, NSW – houses