Subscription Required
By Jay Menon
Sept. 1, 2026, Leeham News & Analysis: Air China’s C919 flight from Beijing to Ulaanbaatar last month carried the Chinese narrowbody across an important boundary. For the first time, the aircraft was flying a scheduled international passenger service beyond Greater China.
The more important test for Comac, however, is taking place back in Shanghai.
China’s commercial aircraft manufacturer has a large order book, a huge home market and an aircraft with more than three years of airline service behind it. What it does not yet have is the production volume, international support network or regulatory reach of the manufacturers it ultimately hopes to compete against.
Air China currently has 12 Comac C919s in service, according to Cirium. Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons
The August 12 flight to Mongolia is therefore better viewed as a marker of how far the C919 program has come. Comac has shown that it can develop an airliner, certify it with Chinese authorities and put it into regular service.
Now, it has to build many more narrowbody jets. A new forecast from aviation consultancy IBA sheds light on that challenge. IBA expects annual C919 deliveries to rise from roughly 28 aircraft in 2026 to 59 in 2028 and 93 by 2030. The in-service fleet would grow from 31 aircraft at the end of 2025 to 159 in 2028 and 322 in 2030.
That is a steep ramp from today’s small production base. Yet, it is still more conservative than the capacity Comac itself is preparing to build.
