{"id":90449,"date":"2025-02-15T22:12:02","date_gmt":"2025-02-15T22:12:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/finance\/buffetts-way-vs-index-funds\/"},"modified":"2025-02-15T22:12:02","modified_gmt":"2025-02-15T22:12:02","slug":"buffetts-way-vs-index-funds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=90449","title":{"rendered":"Buffett&#8217;s Way vs. Index Funds"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container\">\n<p><em>Before the article, here\u2019s what\u2019s happening this week on our podcast, <\/em><strong><em>Personal Finance for Long-Term Investors<\/em><\/strong><em>:<\/em><\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Reader Phil wrote in last weeK<\/p>\n<p><em>Jesse \u2013 I appreciate everything you have to say on stock investing and low-cost, diversified index funds. I also love all the Warren Buffett wisdom you share.\u00a0But, at least when it comes to investing, isn\u2019t Buffett a <\/em><strong><em>counter-example<\/em><\/strong><em> to diversified indexing?\u00a0How do you square that circle? <\/em><\/p>\n<p><cite><em>Phil<\/em><\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This question is like a young dad placing a baseball nicely on a tee so that little Timmy (that\u2019s me) can step up with his $29 Wal-Mart aluminum bat and slug a double to the left-center field fence. Bam! <em>Thanks for the setup, Phil!\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1880\" height=\"1253\" src=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-269948.jpeg\" alt=\"baseball player playing in baseball stadium\" class=\"wp-image-53178\" style=\"width:482px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-269948.jpeg 1880w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-269948-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-269948-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-269948-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-269948-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-269948-930x620.jpeg 930w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1880px) 100vw, 1880px\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Phil has a great point. The type of long-term investing I describe on <em>The Best Interest<\/em> is <strong>not <\/strong>how Buffett has invested over his long career. But if you follow me today, you\u2019ll see where the common ground and divergences exist. I\u2019ll present a \u201cunified theory\u201d of stock investing that connects diversified indexing <em>and<\/em> individual stock picking to the same logic.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Core Commonality<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Whether picking individual stocks or buying an index fund, investors ultimately buy ownership in real businesses. Stocks are not lotto tickets. They are shares of companies, a fractional ownership of those companies\u2019 earnings, cash flows, and assets.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Both Buffett-style investing and indexing rely on the idea that a company is worth the present value of its future cash flows. If we added up all a company\u2019s profits \u201cfrom now until Judgement Day,\u201d as Buffett would say, \u201cand discounted those dollars to today,\u201d that\u2019s the business\u2019s intrinsic value.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"379\" src=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-2-1024x379.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-53176\" style=\"width:740px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-2-1024x379.png 1024w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-2-300x111.png 300w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-2-768x284.png 768w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-2-1536x568.png 1536w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/image-2.png 1800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>But does a stock\u2019s <strong>price<\/strong> always match the company\u2019s <strong>value,<\/strong> as described above? That\u2019s where some of today\u2019s contention and confusion exist. I\u2019d answer that question this way:\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Investors vote with their dollars. They\u2019ll buy or sell a stock if they perceive it as under- or over-valued. On average, over time, yes, we expect a stock\u2019s price to be correlated to the company\u2019s value.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>But there are periods when a stock price is disjointed from its value. This is especially recognizable in retrospect. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/stock-picking\/\">\u201cefficient market hypothesis\u201d<\/a> (EMH) is the idea that all the buyers, sellers, and traders use all available information as best they can to hone in on the proper price for a given stock. It<em> <\/em>does <strong>not<\/strong> mean that today\u2019s price is \u201ccorrect\u201d or \u201cperfect,\u201d per se. Instead, it suggests that poor schmucks like me and you can\u2019t possibly know enough to know whether the market is right or wrong. <\/p>\n<p>Put another way: \u201cthe market\u201d has all the information about a company, while you and I only have some of that information; over time, there\u2019s no way you and I can consistently outsmart the market or consistently beat the market\u2019s prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This idea is the pillar of index investing. <a href=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/yes-you-can-beat-the-market\/\">You can\u2019t beat the market. Why bother trying?<\/a> Just buy everything at the market\u2019s prices, and hold for the long run.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How Buffett Invests<\/h2>\n<p>But this is where Buffett (and his partner Charlie Munger) disagree. <\/p>\n<p>They don\u2019t need to outsmart the market <em>all<\/em> the time. Instead, they\u2019d argue, they need to outsmart the market <em>some<\/em>times. <span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\">They don\u2019t need to make smart decisions on\u00a0<em>every<\/em>\u00a0stock; instead, they<\/span> should make very <em>few<\/em> investment choices.<\/p>\n<p>Sometimes, they suggest, the market loses its mind. There\u2019s some temporary insanity. It can be widespread or relatively narrow; perhaps most of the market is behaving efficiently, but one small corner is acting berserk. Either way, Buffett says, there are times when the market <strong>is not<\/strong> efficient and the market <strong>does not<\/strong> give appropriate prices to particular stocks.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1880\" height=\"1253\" src=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-6136088.jpeg\" alt=\"scrabbled tiles on red surface\" class=\"wp-image-53179\" style=\"width:383px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-6136088.jpeg 1880w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-6136088-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-6136088-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-6136088-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-6136088-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-6136088-930x620.jpeg 930w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1880px) 100vw, 1880px\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Earlier, I wrote about \u201cpoor schmucks like me and you\u201d not having enough info to know whether the market was right or wrong. Buffett says,<strong> \u201cI\u2019m different than that. I <em>do<\/em> have enough info, at times, to know whether the market is right or wrong about a particular stock.\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>When Buffett identifies one of those opportunities \u2013 <em>and <\/em>the opportunity has a sufficient margin of error around it (in case his math ends up being too optimistic) \u2013 he pounces. This is the method by which Buffett has built his investing legend.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Coin-Flipping?<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\">Whe<\/span>n faced with the idea that an investor\u00a0can\u00a0skillfully pick individual stocks, the hardline indexers and EMH acolytes would invoke the famous \u201ccoin-flipping metaphor.\u201d <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1880\" height=\"1253\" src=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-4029695.jpeg\" alt=\"a person tossing a coin\" class=\"wp-image-53180\" style=\"width:385px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-4029695.jpeg 1880w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-4029695-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-4029695-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-4029695-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-4029695-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-4029695-930x620.jpeg 930w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1880px) 100vw, 1880px\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>In fact, business school professors have done this <em>to Warren Buffett\u2019s face<\/em> before, including in a famous 1984 debate at Columbia University, where University of Rochester *(gulp)* finance professor Michael Jensen challenged Buffett\u2019s investing record.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\">\n<p><em>\u201c\u2026if a large group of monkeys <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Coin_flipping\">flipped coins<\/a> and predicted if the coins would land heads or tails, over time, a small number of them would, by random chance or luck, correctly predict the outcome of a lengthy series of flips.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Is Buffett\u2019s record anything other than a series of lucky flips?\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Buffett, in his midwestern folksy way, took the metaphor and ran with it. What if<strong>,<\/strong> he postulated, you follow Jensen\u2019s monkey metaphor and get down to the best coin-flipping orangutans\u2026<strong>only to find out they were all raised in the same zoo?!\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It would beg the question: How can coin-flipping be \u201cpure luck\u201d if all the best coin-flipping monkeys are from the same zoo? Surely there must be something in the water or special training from the zookeeper. There must be some non-luck reason connecting all these winning orangutans.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1880\" height=\"1253\" src=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-1123771.jpeg\" alt=\"brown primate hanging on tree\" class=\"wp-image-53181\" style=\"width:486px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-1123771.jpeg 1880w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-1123771-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-1123771-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-1123771-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-1123771-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-1123771-930x620.jpeg 930w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1880px) 100vw, 1880px\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Buffett then laid out nine individual investors who not only <em>beat <\/em>the market, but <em>crushed<\/em> the market (most for multi-decade periods) between the late 50s and the early 80s. These weren\u2019t nine random or cherry-picked investors. Instead, all nine investors were students of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd \u2013 the two founding fathers of \u201cvalue investing.\u201d These nine investors were all \u201craised in the same zoo\u201d \u2013 that is, they all followed very similar value investing philosophies. <\/p>\n<p>Clearly, Buffett argues, there must be some skill in their common investing approach. This parable came to be known as \u201cThe Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Caveats<\/h2>\n<p>But there are some important caveats here too. <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Buffett recognizes that many people can\u2019t or won\u2019t invest the way he does. So he\u2019s on the record recommending index funds to most investors. He\u2019s even instructed that 90% of his estate be invested in an S&amp;P 500 index fund for his wife.<\/li>\n<li>Buffett started investing in an era with fewer computers, less instant data, and far fewer active investors looking for opportunities. In other words, the market was clearly less efficient. <\/li>\n<li>Could the nine superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville be an example of survivorship bias? <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What About You?<\/h2>\n<p>But the real question for you reading at home is: <em>Can <strong>you<\/strong> follow that path?\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not that the market is infallible. All you have to do is look at daily price movements to realize that the market is <em>constantly<\/em> wrong, though rapid to amend its previous mistakes. If it was perfect, why are the prices moving so much?\u00a0How can it be off by multiple percentage points a day? <\/p>\n<p>The bigger question is whether you possess the insight and information to recognize the market\u2019s mistakes, the patience to wait for <em>big<\/em> mistakes, and the fortitude to pounce on those mistakes?<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1880\" height=\"1253\" src=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-302304.jpeg\" alt=\"tiger\" class=\"wp-image-53182\" style=\"width:519px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-302304.jpeg 1880w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-302304-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-302304-1024x682.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-302304-768x512.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-302304-1536x1024.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/pexels-photo-302304-930x620.jpeg 930w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1880px) 100vw, 1880px\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Do you <em>want <\/em>to invest this way? Most people don\u2019t!\u00a0In fact, the data is clear that even most professionals who attempt to consistently outperform the market will fail to do so. It\u2019s hard! <\/p>\n<p>Instead, most people should accept the returns of their diversified portfolio, build a financial plan around those returns, and move on.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>The efficient market hypothesis is probably wrong. Or at least, it has clear flaws. But 99% of people should act as if it\u2019s perfectly right.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join <a href=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/subscribe\/\"><strong>8500+ subscribers<\/strong><\/a> who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week. You can <a href=\"https:\/\/us17.campaign-archive.com\/home\/?u=3fbae214bd0b124c6d543d7cf&amp;id=7dc2dd2c91\"><strong>read past newsletters<\/strong><\/a> before signing up.<\/p>\n<p>On that note, our podcast <em><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/personal-finance-for-long-term-investors\/\">\u201cPersonal Finance for Long-Term Investors\u201d<\/a><\/strong><\/em> is by far outpacing this written blog. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/the-best-interest-personal-finance-for-long-term-investors\/id1553180943\">Tune in and check it out.<\/a>   <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>-Jesse<\/p>\n<p><em>Want to learn more about <strong>The Best Interest\u2019s<\/strong> back story?<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/bestinterest.blog\/about\/\">Read here<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>Was this post worth sharing? 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I also love all the Warren Buffett wisdom you share.\u00a0But, at least when it comes to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":90450,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[43779,11257,11279],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-90449","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-buffetts","tag-funds","tag-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Buffett&#039;s Way vs. Index Funds - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=90449\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Buffett&#039;s Way vs. Index Funds - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Before the article, here\u2019s what\u2019s happening this week on our podcast, Personal Finance for Long-Term Investors: Reader Phil wrote in last weeK Jesse \u2013 I appreciate everything you have to say on stock investing and low-cost, diversified index funds. 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