{"id":80444,"date":"2025-02-10T19:37:01","date_gmt":"2025-02-10T19:37:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/alabama\/xs-and-oats-tied-atop-the-sec-bama-heads-to-austin-to-face-great-value-ole-miss\/"},"modified":"2025-02-10T19:37:01","modified_gmt":"2025-02-10T19:37:01","slug":"xs-and-oats-tied-atop-the-sec-bama-heads-to-austin-to-face-great-value-ole-miss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=80444","title":{"rendered":"Xs and Oats: Tied atop the SEC, \u2018Bama heads to Austin to face Great Value Ole Miss"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Texas Coach Rodney Terry deserves a lot of credit for rallying the Longhorns following Beard\u2019s arrest and dismissal two-plus years ago. He won almost 30 games, secured a 2-seed, and notched a Sweet 16 for Texas. But that was the zenith, so it seems. Despite recruiting at a high level, having outstanding institutional and financial support, and playing in one of the most palatial gyms in the country, it is fair to say Terry has underachieved. And the eclectic, defense-oriented Chris Beard system that the one-time assistant inherited is just not translating yet in ways that make the fans forget about the old guy. <\/p>\n

In his first full season, UT went 21-13, was a middling seed in the NCAA tournament, and didn\u2019t make it out of the first weekend. Moving from the grist mill of the Big 12 has not provided respite either. If anything, the SEC has been a harder path to navigate. Texas currently sits at 15-9, and faces six tournament teams in its last seven matchups \u2014 four on the road.<\/p>\n

Terry\u2019s seat would be a lot hotter were it not for Texas\u2019 surprisingly-solid home play that saw the Horns upend Mizzou and A&M, and be an absolute menace to UConn, Auburn and Tennessee. And therein lies the problem \u2014 the Longhorns are almost good enough to trade punches with the nation\u2019s title contenders, but not so good as to land enough of their own punches to get out of the \u201cmerely very good\u201d category. <\/p>\n

Though not as talented a team as Arkansas, the \u2018Horns pose their own set of problems for the Tide, and doubly so at home. Despite fans being mad, given UT\u2019s analytical profile, where they lie in the top 12% nationally on both sides of the ball, the Horns\u2019 record is right about where it should be (even about 1 game above expected win values). <\/p>\n

There haven\u2019t been any bad losses for Shortie this year. There just haven\u2019t been nearly enough great wins either. Let\u2019s hope \u2018Bama isn\u2019t the one they hang their hat on this year..which is more plausible than the records would suggest. <\/p>\n

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\nTale of the Tape: <\/strong>
No. 32 Texas (15-9, 4-7 T-10th) vs No. 3 Alabama (19-3, 8-1 2nd)<\/strong>
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Spread: N\/A, though likely in the 5-7 point range, and Ken Pom has it \u2018Bama -2.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Opponent KenPom:<\/strong> 32 (36 offense, 43 defense, 206 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: <\/strong> 35 (36 offense, 38 defense, 163 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: <\/strong> 34 (27 offense, 46 defense, 207 tempo)
Opponent NET: <\/strong>31 (3-7 <\/strong>Q1, 6-9 Q1\/Q2); Q1 opponent for the Tide
Opponent RPI:<\/strong> 73
Opponent Best Win:<\/strong> vs Texas A&M (15)
Opponent Worst Loss:<\/strong> @ Vandy (48)<\/p>\n

UA Ken Pom<\/strong>: 6th (3 Off, 35 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Evan Miya<\/strong>: 5th (4 Off, 30 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA Bart Torvik:<\/strong> 4th (3 Off, 34 Defense, 1 Tempo)
UA NET Ranking:<\/strong> 6 (7-3 Q1, 14-3 Q1\/2)
UA RPI<\/strong>: 2
UA Best Win: <\/strong>No. 3 (N) Houston
UA Worst Loss: <\/strong>No. 35 (N) Oregon<\/p>\n

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Want to know about Texas? <\/p>\n

At the risk of being reductive, Rodney Terry is a Chris Beard clone, and his Longhorns are a more athletic, Big Lots version of Ole Miss. <\/p>\n

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I\u2019m not about to type everything that I wrote for the Ole Miss preview again, so let our friend copy+paste do the heavy lifting. Subtract powder blue, add white and burnt orange, but otherwise the approach is the same:<\/p>\n

Defensively:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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If you\u2019ve never seen how Beard\u2019s teams play, and you\u2019re a fan of old-school, stance-based on-ball defense, then you\u2019re in for a treat. Both offensively and defensively, the Rebels are a throwback team. They\u2019re a throwback to fundamental defense that emphasizes footwork and low posture as a means to deny penetration and easy passes.<\/p>\n

Because the defenders squat on the ball, that makes opposing guards be wary with even routine dribbling: Ole Miss will pick your pocket. That lower bearing also means defenders aren\u2019t leaving their feet for every ball fake, so easy entries to the post are scarce to come by. And, even if the ball handler does beat his his man off a screen, he\u2019s in for a treat \u2014 because he\u2019s going to find that there\u2019s already at least one other defender in position waiting on him.<\/p>\n

Beard emphasizes a \u201cno middle\u201d strategy, and that means every entry pass or cut to the inside is to be contested. To accomplish this, the Rebels (like A&M) cheat towards the basket, and you don\u2019t often see them come out beyond the arc to pick up a shooter. However, when they do, it\u2019s to trap the guard into a bad decision or cut off penetration to the basket. But, unlike other on-ball pressure teams we\u2019ve seen, Beards\u2019 squads are so hyper-aggressive about switching off, that it\u2019s fairer to call his defensive style more of a hybrid man-zone in actuality. Calling it a 2-1-2 Matchup zone, with <\/a>isn\u2019t entirely unfair.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Alabama has struggled mightily against hybrid zone teams this year, getting romped by the Rebels, and being in a cage match with Mississippi State in Starkville. Let\u2019s hope over the last month that the lessons learned in those two meetings will help \u2018Bama better adjust to the looks they see on Tuesday. <\/p>\n

Texas doesn\u2019t execute the defense to quite the same high level as Ole Miss, and they do play a bit more straight-man defense than the Rebels. But elsewise, there have been few wrinkles added by the \u2018Horns coaching staff. That also means the same issues inherently remain though: tendency to being outrebounding, fouling a lot and sending opponents to the free throw line, vulnerability to the second-pass perimeter shot. <\/p>\n

Offense:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Schematically, again, the system is one that we saw vs. the Rebels: Eclectic, motion-oriented offense with a lot of off-ball screens, emphasis on shot selection, pick-and-roll easy looks near the rim, and pass-and-cut on-ball screens. It does a little bit of everything offensively, but is a bit more dynamic than the Rebels. <\/p>\n

For a start, the Longhorns rely on the perimeter game for a higher percentage of their offense \u2014 though they are not a great shooting squad overall. Alabama currently has the nation\u2019s best 3P% defense (surprised me too), so this is going to be a matchup to watch. As go the Texas perimeter shots, so go the Horns. They\u2019ve usually been good enough to keep games very competitive. But when they\u2019ve not fared well beyond the arc, they\u2019ve gotten smashed. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s also a much taller team than Ole Miss, which makes their offensive rebounding struggles a bit of a mystery. This team can and does routinely get beat on the glass, and doesn\u2019t follow their misses nearly as well as they should. <\/p>\n

But they are elite in hanging on to the ball, drawing fouls, getting to the line and making those freebies count. \u2018Bama is going to need to play position defense without fouling, and especially get after defensive rebounds. This team can be trouble offensively…but they can also throw up a lot of reckless shots, particularly once they\u2019re outside the paint. <\/p>\n

The end result is a team that is actually playing worse than the sum of their parts, especially an offense that looks great analytically, but has too many unforced bad shots, and too little effort on put-backs, to be as efficient as they could. <\/p>\n

If you want to know what the full schemes look like in depth, review the Ole Miss write-up. <\/p>\n