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This month: Meaningful community, a typical situation, inventory and expectations, and my first closing.<\/em><\/p>\n January is the month I started writing RealCentralVA<\/a> in 2005, then I started writing these notes in January 2014. There have been incalculable changes in life and the real estate space since then, and two things are constant: 1) I\u2019m writing this note as if I\u2019m writing it to someone who is interested in the real estate market, and who is not a real estate agent\/lender\/etc.<\/em> 2) No matter the changes in real estate, I remain committed to learning, listening, and representing my clients.<\/p>\n What questions do you have? 434-242-7140<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Live and participate in a community long enough and you will see the same things again and again. There used to be an incredible music festival (Festy) in the Charlottesville area, and I took my younger one for several years. She loved the Pie Guy. We took and cooked food at the campsite, but she subsided on Pie Guy. Those interactions were meaningful as she grew up.<\/p>\n Every year, the Pie Guy<\/a> would see us and recognize her. We have seen him all over the area for years: festivals, farmers markets, and recently at a Nest event.<\/p>\n The pies? Sweet or savory, they are delicious.<\/p>\n The point of the story? Consistency matters. Paying attention to your people matters. Taking the opportunity to recognize those around us matters.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n I was negotiating with a sellers\u2019 agent on a home inspection, and the counter offers didn\u2019t make much sense so I asked for insight into the logic of the counters. They said, \u201cthis seems to be the best they can do, as I told them it would be good to get to 1% of the purchase price in terms of what they would offer in lieu of repairs<\/strong>.\u201d (bolding mine)<\/em><\/p>\n I almost wished I hadn\u2019t asked.<\/p>\n There are few things that are typical in this business<\/strong>. Rare examples of \u201ctypical\u201d in real estate:<\/p>\n Inspection repairs? Not typical. At all. There is a reason that my answer to most things starts with \u201cit depends\u201d \u2014 experience.<\/p>\n \u201cThe most positive development in the housing market over 2024 has been the increase in active housing inventory, which is approaching the levels seen in 2019. Although those 2019 levels represent a five-decade low before COVID-19, the market was still functioning better than it did from 2020 to 2023.\u201c<\/a><\/p>\n Managing and helping to set clients\u2019 expectations:<\/p>\n Real estate is local.<\/strong><\/p>\n ResiClub surveyed 26 firms for their national home price forecasts<\/a>, and the UP: 23 of the 26 firms expect national home prices to rise<\/em> in 2025<\/p>\n DOWN: 3 of the 26 firms expects national home prices to fall<\/em> in 2025<\/p>\n Among the 26 forecasts tracked by ResiClub, the average prediction is a +2.7% increase in U.S. home prices in 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n I say this all the time: National trends are good for tracking consumer sentiments that affect the Charlottesville market, and local trends (employment, cost of living, inventory) directly affect the Charlottesville market.<\/p>\n Macro matters; micro matters more.<\/p>\n If you missed my predictions segment last month, here it is<\/a>.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n New resale listings in Charlottesville + Albemarle from 1\/1\/-1\/7 (total for that month)<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbbca50ca-111a-4000-bca7-84e3375cd2f2_3259x2148.jpeg)
<\/picture>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\nMeaningful Community<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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<\/picture>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\nNo such thing as \u201ctypical.\u201d<\/h3>\n
The most important thing about the 2025 real estate market: Inventory.<\/strong><\/em><\/h3>\n
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<\/picture>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\nThe hardest part about rising inventory?<\/h3>\n
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projections<\/s> educated guesses ranged from up 10.8% to down 2%. I suspect the Charlottesville area real estate market will be in the \u201cup 3% to 5%\u201d range, and different micro markets within will vary greatly.<\/p>\n\n
Quick level-set:<\/h3>\n
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