{"id":7067763,"date":"2026-09-26T22:30:48","date_gmt":"2026-09-26T22:30:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/advertising\/why-this-marketing-measurement-company-just-open-sourced-its-forecasting-engine\/"},"modified":"2026-09-26T22:30:48","modified_gmt":"2026-09-26T22:30:48","slug":"why-this-marketing-measurement-company-just-open-sourced-its-forecasting-engine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763","title":{"rendered":"Why This Marketing Measurement Company Just Open-Sourced Its Forecasting Engine"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

Marketing measurement is really about answering two questions: What happened? And what should I do about it?<\/span><\/p>\n

Most marketing mix models are built to answer the first one, but the second is where things get harder and also more interesting.<\/span><\/p>\n

On Friday, Lifesight \u2013 a marketing measurement platform that combines MMM, incrementality testing and attribution \u2013 open-sourced Horizon, its tool for predicting future demand. Everything \u2013 the code, the underlying methodology, supporting documentation and benchmarking materials \u2013 is now available on GitHub.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe reason we made it open source is to build trust and also to establish that it\u2019s good practice to bring forecasting into your measurement system,\u201d said Rajeev Nair, Lifesight\u2019s co-founder and chief product officer. \u201cBy making this public, our customers and prospects can see the results for themselves and know this is something that\u2019s been proven on real data.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Open-source measurement has been having a moment<\/span><\/a>. Google\u2019s Meridian, Meta\u2019s Robyn and PyMC-Marketing, an independent open-source marketing analytics library, all arrived in recent years with a pitch to offer more open, inspectable measurement.<\/span> <\/p>\n

\n \"\"\n <\/div>\n

The motivations may not always be purely altruistic. PyMC-Marketing aside, the big platforms have their own reasons for wanting your data in their models. But the effect of these launches has been real. Measurement is more open and transparent than it was five years ago.<\/span><\/p>\n

MMM, meet tomorrow<\/b><\/h2>\n

But those tools explain the past, like showing which channel drove what action or how much revenue can be tied to media versus pricing versus promotions. MMMs aren\u2019t built for looking forward.<\/span><\/p>\n

The thing is, a significant chunk of an established brand\u2019s revenue \u2013 sometimes 50% to 60% \u2013 comes from factors that have nothing to do with marketing, including seasonality, brand loyalty, word of mouth and repeat purchases. This demand would exist even if a brand didn\u2019t run ads, didn\u2019t change its prices \u2013 did nothing, basically.<\/span><\/p>\n

Modelers call this the \u201cbaseline,\u201d and it\u2019s where MMM runs out of road.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cExtrapolating from measurement models is usually accurate only for very small changes,\u201d said Dr. Ron Berman, an associate professor of marketing at the Wharton School and the first member of Lifesight\u2019s newly created Scientific Advisory Council, an independent body that the company created to peer review its research and methodologies.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf you double your budget on something you\u2019ve never observed in the past, the extrapolation is going to be really off \u2013\u00a0and in marketing, things change,\u201d Berman said. \u201cTake seasonality. My forecast from holiday season data is going to be way off for January or February.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Most companies don\u2019t really solve for this. They often either lean on MMM to do the forecasting, or they forecast without solid measurement behind it.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cBut without a forecasting system, even if you have accurate measurement, it doesn\u2019t help your business beyond a point,\u201d Nair said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Horizon, which works by running multiple forecasting models simultaneously and combining their outputs, rather than relying on any single one, sits alongside whatever measurement setup a brand is already running \u2013 Lifesight\u2019s MMM, Google\u2019s Meridian or something built in-house \u2013 and handles the forecasting side separately.<\/span><\/p>\n

Because the question isn\u2019t really about <\/span>which<\/span><\/i> forecasting model to use. The answer is to use all of them.<\/span><\/p>\n

All together now<\/b><\/h2>\n

That approach has a name: <\/span>ensemble forecasting<\/span><\/a>, a statistical method that runs multiple models at the same time and combines their outputs.<\/span><\/p>\n

Different models catch different signals, and no single model gets everything right. But, averaged together, they tend to get closer than any one of them would alone.<\/span><\/p>\n

This thinking is well established in academic forecasting research. It\u2019s yet to catch on in the business world, however.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of people just assume there\u2019s a best method, that you can compare them and simply pick the best one \u2013 it\u2019s instinctive,\u201d Berman said. \u201cBut we know academically that combining them is generally better, and I think it\u2019s important to evolve people\u2019s thinking about that.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

But why open-source it?<\/b><\/h2>\n

Helping practitioners rethink measurement is part of what the new Scientific Advisory Council exists to do, and it starts with taking academic research out of the ivory tower.<\/span><\/p>\n

Most forecasting research has been applied to things like predicting exchange rates or disease diffusion \u2013 worlds away from what marketers need to know before spending their next incremental media dollar.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m always trying to put myself in the mind not of an engineer,\u201d Berman said, \u201cbut of a marketer who needs to make a decision.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Publishing Horizon openly, with its benchmarks and documentation there to be poked and prodded, is one way to make that research usable \u2013 and credible. In an ideal world, though, none of this would be remarkable. It\u2019s just how measurement would work, Nair said.<\/span><\/p>\n

And if a competitor wants to build on top of Horizon, that\u2019s fine by him. They\u2019re welcome to it. Horizon is a layer over existing open-source libraries, not a proprietary breakthrough. The differentiation, Nair said, is in the execution.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s no need for any of this to be a black box,\u201d he said. \u201cThe true value is in making it easy for brands to orchestrate, calibrate and then make decisions.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Marketing measurement is really about answering two questions: What happened? And what should I do about it? Most marketing mix models are built to answer the first one, but the second is where things get harder and also more interesting. On Friday, Lifesight \u2013 a marketing measurement platform that combines MMM, incrementality testing and attribution […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7067764,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12023],"tags":[3619,21739,4731,14446,3103,228942,8402,3943,228943,35195,27797,228948,228944,228945,228946,228947],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-7067763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-advertising","tag-company","tag-engine","tag-featured","tag-forecasting","tag-horizon","tag-lifesight","tag-marketing","tag-measurement","tag-media-measurement","tag-mmm","tag-open-source","tag-opensourced","tag-predictive-analysis","tag-rajeev-nair","tag-ron-berman","tag-the-wharton-school"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy This Marketing Measurement Company Just Open-Sourced Its Forecasting Engine - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why This Marketing Measurement Company Just Open-Sourced Its Forecasting Engine - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Marketing measurement is really about answering two questions: What happened? And what should I do about it? Most marketing mix models are built to answer the first one, but the second is where things get harder and also more interesting. On Friday, Lifesight \u2013 a marketing measurement platform that combines MMM, incrementality testing and attribution […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-26T22:30:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/predictions.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1768\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1471\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/b85e3c3dc0e1daea076524dc8810c371\"},\"headline\":\"Why This Marketing Measurement Company Just Open-Sourced Its Forecasting Engine\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-26T22:30:48+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763\"},\"wordCount\":876,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/predictions.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Company\",\"ENGINE\",\"featured\",\"Forecasting\",\"HORIZON\",\"Lifesight\",\"marketing\",\"Measurement\",\"media measurement\",\"MMM\",\"open source\",\"OpenSourced\",\"predictive analysis\",\"Rajeev Nair\",\"Ron Berman\",\"the Wharton School\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Advertising\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763\",\"name\":\"Why This Marketing Measurement Company Just Open-Sourced Its Forecasting Engine - Som2ny Network\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/predictions.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-26T22:30:48+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/predictions.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/predictions.jpg\",\"width\":1768,\"height\":1471},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?bp_activities=1\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Why This Marketing Measurement Company Just Open-Sourced Its Forecasting Engine\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/\",\"name\":\"Som2ny Network\",\"description\":\"Daily Deals\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Som2ny Network\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4a0953c4-logo-300x86-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4a0953c4-logo-300x86-1.png\",\"width\":300,\"height\":86,\"caption\":\"Som2ny Network\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/b85e3c3dc0e1daea076524dc8810c371\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/729ae85bf62b9917e93538db2f2688ca?s=96&r=g&default=https%3A%2F%2Ffivemor.com%2Fwp-content%2Fplugins%2Fbuddypress-first-letter-avatar%2Fimages%2Fdefault%2F96%2Flatin_a.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/729ae85bf62b9917e93538db2f2688ca?s=96&r=g&default=https%3A%2F%2Ffivemor.com%2Fwp-content%2Fplugins%2Fbuddypress-first-letter-avatar%2Fimages%2Fdefault%2F96%2Flatin_a.png\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Why This Marketing Measurement Company Just Open-Sourced Its Forecasting Engine - Som2ny Network","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Why This Marketing Measurement Company Just Open-Sourced Its Forecasting Engine - Som2ny Network","og_description":"Marketing measurement is really about answering two questions: What happened? And what should I do about it? Most marketing mix models are built to answer the first one, but the second is where things get harder and also more interesting. On Friday, Lifesight \u2013 a marketing measurement platform that combines MMM, incrementality testing and attribution […]","og_url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763","og_site_name":"Som2ny Network","article_published_time":"2026-09-26T22:30:48+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1768,"height":1471,"url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/predictions.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/b85e3c3dc0e1daea076524dc8810c371"},"headline":"Why This Marketing Measurement Company Just Open-Sourced Its Forecasting Engine","datePublished":"2026-09-26T22:30:48+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763"},"wordCount":876,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/predictions.jpg","keywords":["Company","ENGINE","featured","Forecasting","HORIZON","Lifesight","marketing","Measurement","media measurement","MMM","open source","OpenSourced","predictive analysis","Rajeev Nair","Ron Berman","the Wharton School"],"articleSection":["Advertising"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763","url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763","name":"Why This Marketing Measurement Company Just Open-Sourced Its Forecasting Engine - Som2ny Network","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/predictions.jpg","datePublished":"2026-09-26T22:30:48+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/predictions.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/predictions.jpg","width":1768,"height":1471},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7067763#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?bp_activities=1"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Why This Marketing Measurement Company Just Open-Sourced Its Forecasting Engine"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/","name":"Som2ny Network","description":"Daily Deals","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization","name":"Som2ny Network","url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4a0953c4-logo-300x86-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4a0953c4-logo-300x86-1.png","width":300,"height":86,"caption":"Som2ny Network"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/b85e3c3dc0e1daea076524dc8810c371","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/729ae85bf62b9917e93538db2f2688ca?s=96&r=g&default=https%3A%2F%2Ffivemor.com%2Fwp-content%2Fplugins%2Fbuddypress-first-letter-avatar%2Fimages%2Fdefault%2F96%2Flatin_a.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/729ae85bf62b9917e93538db2f2688ca?s=96&r=g&default=https%3A%2F%2Ffivemor.com%2Fwp-content%2Fplugins%2Fbuddypress-first-letter-avatar%2Fimages%2Fdefault%2F96%2Flatin_a.png","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/fivemor.com"],"url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7067763","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7067763"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7067763\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7067764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7067763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7067763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7067763"},{"taxonomy":"dealstore","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fdealstore&post=7067763"},{"taxonomy":"offerexpiration","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fofferexpiration&post=7067763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}