\n<\/p>\n
And just like that, Canada\u2019s shrinking population went the way of its technical recession\u2014revised away. Statistics Canada (StatCan)<\/a> data shows that the country\u2019s population grew in Q3 2026. More importantly, the data includes the upward revisions we\u2019ve been discussing for months. It turns out that the much-discussed population contraction plaguing the country didn\u2019t exist. The revisions reveal a bigger population, but more importantly, a much worse economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n Canadian quarterly population estimates: Reported vs latest revisions. <\/em><\/p>\n Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n Canada\u2019s population climbed 0.2% (+80.3k people) to 41.8 million in Q3 2026, rising 0.5% (+189.4k) since last year. Annual growth is the weakest since Q2 2021, roughly the end of the pandemic\u2019s lockdowns. The strength is likely to surprise most people, as the country was supposed to be shrinking. Our first hint that this wasn\u2019t true should have been policymakers promising to do just that.\u00a0<\/p>\n StatCan made sharp revisions to its population estimates, as we previously warned<\/a>. They originally reported a 0.5% y\/y drop for Q2 2026, marking a rare annual decline. This morning\u2019s update shows they missed roughly 300,000 people. Whoops!\u00a0<\/p>\n The entire revision is due to methodology changes for estimating non-permanent residents (NPRs). There were 2.78 million NPRs in Q3 2026, down 0.7% (-18.9k) from last quarter and 5.3% (-154.6k) below last year\u2019s estimates. However, Q2 2026 also saw an upward revision of 2.8 million, 9.3% (+239k people) higher than originally reported. The NPR peak in Q4 2024 was also revised lower from 3.15 million to 2.98 million, 5.4% (-170k) lower than reported. In short, even when policymakers launch half-baked plans, the numbers show stability. Cute.\u00a0<\/p>\n Since these residents are in the country, it doesn\u2019t change reality for consumption. Even if a bureaucrat forgets to count them, they still consume food and shelter. Demand-side pressures are the same. Policymakers may be delighted, as more human capital stock means higher credit capacity, however, reality doesn\u2019t change, but the country\u2019s economic narrative will.<\/p>\n Canada\u2019s economy was doing really well for a country with a shrinking population. Now that it\u2019s not shrinking, the economic reality is a disaster, validating how many feel. GDP growing 0.8% in Q2 2026 at the seasonally adjusted annual rate is impressive with a 0.5% population drop. Not so much if the population is growing 0.5% over that same period.\u00a0<\/p>\n Breaking down that growth reveals how problematic those GDP numbers really were. Exports of goods represented 1.23 percentage points of that 0.8% growth, due mostly to higher oil prices. That means Iran\u2019s closure of the Strait of Hormuz did more for Canada\u2019s GDP than its policymakers. A war between two other countries was a bigger boost than near-pandemic levels of new debt. The math is even more disturbing when it comes to the job market.\u00a0<\/p>\n Canada\u2019s employment data relies heavily on population estimates. The job data would have collected the number of NPRs with a job, but the population estimates wouldn\u2019t have. This inflates the number of workers while underestimating the total number of people. We previously estimated that the undercount means the 6.7% unemployment rate is closer to 7.6%<\/a>. That would make it the third-highest report since the pandemic, and it was a conservative call. We used the national average for the share in the labour force, but it\u2019s typically much higher for NPRs.\u00a0<\/p>\n StatCan confirmed it will revise the employment data in the coming months. However, the methodology means the revisions will be slowly introduced. Funny how reality can\u2019t hit all at once when it impacts national optics negatively, eh?\u00a0<\/p>\n The population revisions are surprising for a few reasons, and not just the upward ones. Upward revisions reveal a fragile economy, masked by ignoring hundreds of thousands of workers. They also make slow home sales and a sharp climb in rental vacancies even more troubling.\u00a0<\/p>\n Downward revisions at the peak reveal the demand-side narrative was softer than presented. But what\u2019s really surprising here is that they appeared at all. Our previous estimate shows StatCan overestimated the population for ~30 years<\/a>. An agency study followed and found the overcount was even larger than our estimate. It appears revisions that expand the country\u2019s borrowing capacity make it into official data faster than those that can slow it.<\/p>\nCanada\u2019s \u201cShrinking\u201d Population Has Been Growing This Whole Time<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Canada\u2019s Temporary Resident Estimates: Under On Decline, Inflated At Peak<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Canada\u2019s<\/strong> Upward Revisions Reveal A Much Worse Economy<\/h2>\n