{"id":7061502,"date":"2026-09-19T22:51:19","date_gmt":"2026-09-19T22:51:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/uncategorized\/the-supreme-court-will-not-wreck-obamacare\/"},"modified":"2026-09-19T22:51:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-19T22:51:19","slug":"the-supreme-court-will-not-wreck-obamacare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7061502","title":{"rendered":"The Supreme Court Will Not Wreck Obamacare"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-body-6175767021327732808\" itemprop=\"description articleBody\">\n<p><i>This is an update of an article originally posted in September.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>With the Supreme Court due to hear arguments this week on a case brought by a number of Republican state attorneys general that could throw out the entire health care law, and with conservatives now having a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, there is great concern among ACA\/Obamacare supporters that this could well mean the end of the health care law.<\/p>\n<p>The<br \/>\nObamacare case currently before the court deals with the 2017 repeal<br \/>\n of the law&#8217;s tax penalty enforcing the individual mandate for people to buy health insurance<br \/>\ncoverage. In 2012, Chief Justice John Roberts cast the deciding vote<br \/>\n in the 5-4 decision upholding Obamacare generally, and the<br \/>\nindividual mandate specifically, as valid under the Congress&#8217; taxing<br \/>\npower. After the mandate&#8217;s tax penalty was repealed in 2017, a number of Republican state<br \/>\nattorneys general sued, arguing that since the<br \/>\nmandate was no longer tied to a specific tax penalty, it had lost its<br \/>\nlegal underpinning. They also argued that because the individual mandate<br \/>\n was key to a number of the law&#8217;s provisions that made it a workable<br \/>\nsystem of insurance, the entire law<br \/>\nshould fall, including preexisting<br \/>\nconditions protections.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"more\"\/><\/p>\n<p>This<br \/>\n whole legal process is now being driven by one decision by one Texas<br \/>\nfederal judge that bought the plaintiff&#8217;s painfully tenuous arguments in<br \/>\n deciding that the entire law is unconstitutional.<\/p>\n<p>While it is<br \/>\n certainly possible the Supreme Court could toss all of the Affordable Care Act\/Obamacare before<br \/>\n the end of this term, I see that as highly unlikely for the following<br \/>\nreasons:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<li>I don&#8217;t know of any conservative legal scholars that led prior Supreme Court challenges to Obamacare <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/justice-department\/conservative-legal-experts-attack-trump-s-push-dismantle-obamacare-court-n990541\" target=\"_blank\">who see the current challenge as credible on the merits<\/a>.<br \/>\n For example, the architect of the last challenge, Jonathan Adler of<br \/>\nCase Western University, said in a friend of the court brief the current<br \/>\nchallenge is, &#8220;unmoored from law or contemporary doctrine.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>Those<br \/>\n now arguing that the Court is almost automatically capable of wrecking the law appear to<br \/>\nbelieve Republican appointed justices are purely partisan political<br \/>\nanimals marching to the Trump political line. That reflects a lack of<br \/>\nunderstanding about the justices and their dedication to the rule of<br \/>\nlaw. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/posteverything\/wp\/2018\/06\/28\/those-5-4-decisions-on-the-supreme-court-9-0-is-far-more-common\/\">According to the Supreme Court Database<\/a>, from 2000 to 2018, 36% of all decisions were unanimous. Their 7-to-2 or 8-to-1 decisions made up 15 percent<br \/>\nof decisions. The 5-to-4 decisions, by comparison, occurred in only 19<br \/>\npercent of cases. And, in the <a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/Supreme_Court_cases,_October_term_2019-2020\" target=\"_blank\">2019-2020 term<\/a>, with Gorsuch and Kavanaugh aboard, only 21% of the decisions were 5-3 or 5-4.<\/li>\n<li>The<br \/>\n concerns over the Court wrecking the whole law lie with the dubious<br \/>\nnotion that if the individual mandate&#8217;s tax penalty is gone so should<br \/>\nthe broader parts of the law such as the Medicaid expansion and the<br \/>\nindividual insurance subsidies. The Medicaid expansion, for example, has<br \/>\n absolutely nothing to do with the individual mandate that was<br \/>\noriginally placed in the law as a means to support insurance companies&#8217;<br \/>\nability to underwrite individual health insurance policies. And, the individual health insurance market itself has been chugging along in no worse condition since the tax penalty, and effectively the mandate, was repealed back in 2017 as part of the Republican tax bill.<\/li>\n<li>If<br \/>\nthe justices decided that the whole law had to go, they would force<br \/>\nupwards of 20 million people onto the rolls of the uninsured overnight<br \/>\non the dubious premise that the excising of the individual mandate&#8217;s tax penalty undercuts the<br \/>\nindividual health insurance coverage expansion when the past three years of actual experience shows that no such thing has happened. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>During the recent election campaign many Democrats wanted to paint that<br \/>\npicture if for no other reason that it fit an effective election<br \/>\nseason argument, that Republicans wanted to take away your preexisting<br \/>\ncondition protections, your insurance subsidies, and your Medicaid<br \/>\nexpansion.<\/p>\n<p>And, since Republicans have brought this suit and the<br \/>\nTrump White House has supported it, their actions legitimately lay Republicans<br \/>\n wide open to that claim. And, that begs the question of why Republicans<br \/>\n would do such a stupid thing in the first place?<\/p>\n<p>Ironically, Republicans are now<br \/>\nmoving to blow up the law in court after abysmally failing to repeal and<br \/>\n replace Obamacare in 2017 (in part leading to their 2018 election<br \/>\ndefeats) and then just as abysmally failing to come up with a new replacement<br \/>\nproposal since then.<\/p>\n<p>Luckily, the Supreme Court is staffed by adults who will save Obamacare, and the Republicans from themselves.<\/p>\n<p>We should expect a Supreme Court ruling on this case late in the spring of 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Update:<\/p>\n<p>After hearing the Court&#8217;s oral arguments this morning (November 10th), I can double down on my prediction the Court will not wreck Obamacare.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>If the conservative justices don&#8217;t buy the plaintiff arguments, their attempts to destroy Obamacare will fail. Listening to the arguments, most of the conservatives were clear that whatever the Court does with what remains of the individual mandate the rest of the law should stand.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The best comment came from one of the most conservative justices, Samuel Alito:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn the first case [NFIB vs Sebelius, 2012], there was a strong reason to believe the individual<br \/>\nmandate was \u2026 essential to keep the plane flying. Now the part has been<br \/>\ntaken out and the plane has not crashed,\u201d Alito said. \u201cHow would we explain<br \/>\n why the individual mandate in its present form is essential to the<br \/>\noperation of the act?\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Game, set, match. The Supreme Court will not wreck Obamacare!\u00a0 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is an update of an article originally posted in September. With the Supreme Court due to hear arguments this week on a case brought by a number of Republican state attorneys general that could throw out the entire health care law, and with conservatives now having a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, there [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[133513,147452,223554,223555],"tags":[410,125681,2835,41598],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-7061502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-affordable-care-act","category-obamacare","category-republicans-preexisting-conditions-supreme-court","category-supreme-court-case-obamacare","tag-court","tag-obamacare","tag-supreme","tag-wreck"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Supreme Court Will Not Wreck Obamacare - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7061502\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Supreme Court Will Not Wreck Obamacare - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This is an update of an article originally posted in September. 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