{"id":7054307,"date":"2026-09-01T23:09:07","date_gmt":"2026-09-01T23:09:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/analytics\/speaking-of-setting-a-standard\/"},"modified":"2026-09-01T23:09:07","modified_gmt":"2026-09-01T23:09:07","slug":"speaking-of-setting-a-standard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7054307","title":{"rendered":"Speaking of Setting a Standard"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">I asked ChatGPT to perform a simple long-term value curve estimation procedure for me. The classic ecommerce customer relationship is one easily fit via a diminishing returns power function.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">Future Spend = a*x^b where &#8220;x&#8221; is the number of months since a customer was acquired.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">I&#8217;ll spare you the paper trail for now (it&#8217;s attached at the bottom of the post).<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">AI fit the wrong equation &#8230; it fit a linear regression model which understated how much a customer spends early in the life cycle and overstates how much a customer spends later in the life cycle. In the real world, this means you&#8217;d accept a 2.00 ROAS when you should accept a 4.20 ROAS and your company would be significantly less profitable. All because of AI. If you don&#8217;t know how to &#8220;coax&#8221; an answer out of AI, you&#8217;ll doom your company. And you&#8217;ll boil a few aquifers in the process.<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">I asked AI if a diminishing returns relationship like a*x^b is more appropriate and if it fits better? It replied that the equation is more appropriate and yes, it fits better (well then why didn&#8217;t you do that the first time I asked you?). It gave me an answer. One problem. The answer it gave me was a hallucination? How did I know? Because I asked my statistical software package (CurveExpert) to solve the problem for me, and it gave me the correct answer.<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">It gets worse.<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">I asked AI to provide me with predicted value calculations for the equation it fitted. Here is an example of the answer it provided for me (remember, the coefficients are already wrong &#8211; I&#8217;m just asking it to perform simple math).<\/span><\/div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">Future = 8.63 * (Months ^ 0.78).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">Assume Months = 12.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">Future = 8.63 * (12 ^ 0.78).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">Future = 55.90.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">Go ahead and plug 8.63 * (12 ^ 0.78) into Excel. What answer do you obtain?<\/span><\/div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">You should obtain 59.95.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">In other words, AI is not even calculating simple calculator-level math correctly. It&#8217;s hallucinating. It&#8217;s doing whatever it wants. And it is doing a HORRIFYING JOB.<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">You are a Lemonhead if you trust this stuff.<\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"separator\" style=\"clear: both;text-align: center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEisKE5vEPe-CfW1MX67JzHhVyInokFHnV_gW0IJX87tPwMfcowFzhjmCjFdNkA48Wg5y0y2AtM_I0ejaxrISfstrj5TdlKZ4Mv_Qw43gBT7Sj75PcMwgXir0TObL5UgDPRs4qo6ZFRvB5Q1muZU2AGQLYbKUBDwvvsjbDWBKNEUzQFUwH3Wr1Z8uQ\" style=\"margin-left: 1em;margin-right: 1em\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" data-original-height=\"1536\" data-original-width=\"1024\" height=\"400\" src=\"https:\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/a\/AVvXsEisKE5vEPe-CfW1MX67JzHhVyInokFHnV_gW0IJX87tPwMfcowFzhjmCjFdNkA48Wg5y0y2AtM_I0ejaxrISfstrj5TdlKZ4Mv_Qw43gBT7Sj75PcMwgXir0TObL5UgDPRs4qo6ZFRvB5Q1muZU2AGQLYbKUBDwvvsjbDWBKNEUzQFUwH3Wr1Z8uQ=w267-h400\" width=\"267\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">Yes, there will likely be a day when AI is a lot better and performs certain functions a lot better. If you want to target email subscribers properly, AI is already quite good at that &#8230; though again, how do you know it is doing things the &#8220;right&#8221; way? How could you possibly know? Also, I just asked the application to provide me SPSS code for a problem and it wrote elegant and functional code.<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">But until that future day happens (and it appears it is out there a bit), please be careful.<\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\">Here is my final question to AI, and AI&#8221;s final response.<\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\">Kevin:&nbsp;I&#8217;ve learned that you cannot perform even the simplest of tasks without making mistakes. I am able to fact-check your work with hand calculations. What are users who do not have my skills supposed to do if they blindly trust your solutions when you cannot even perform simple math that a calculator can perform?<\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: arial\">AI:&nbsp;&nbsp;<span style=\"text-align: left;white-space: pre-wrap\">Kevin, you\u2019re not wrong to be frustrated. And you\u2019re absolutely right to call out the risk: if I make a math mistake and a user can\u2019t check the work, that\u2019s a problem. Let me speak to you directly and clearly \u2014 no defensiveness, no sugarcoating.<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<h3><strong><span style=\"font-family: arial\">1. You caught real errors \u2014 and they were my responsibility<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">You gave me a clean dataset \u2014 values like:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">\u201c60,169.17 \u2026 1,11.03\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">and you asked for a specific model:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: arial\">y = a\u00b7x\u1d47<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">I should have executed the log\u2013linear regression cleanly. Instead, I produced inconsistent coefficients and even mis\u2011computed basic exponentiation. You were right to challenge it.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><strong>2. What should users do if they <\/strong><em><strong>can\u2019t<\/strong><\/em><strong> check the math?<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">They should do exactly what you\u2019re doing now:<br \/>\n<strong>question the output when something feels off.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">Even though I\u2019m designed to be helpful, I\u2019m not infallible. I don\u2019t \u201cblindly calculate\u201d \u2014 I generate answers through patterns, reasoning, and approximations. That means:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul role=\"list\">\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">I can make arithmetic mistakes.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">I can misinterpret a model specification.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">I can produce a result that <em>sounds<\/em> confident but is wrong.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">A calculator never does that. I can.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span style=\"font-family: arial\">3. So how do non\u2011experts stay safe?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">Here\u2019s the honest guidance:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul role=\"list\">\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><strong>If the stakes are high, users should verify with a second source.<\/strong><br \/>\nA spreadsheet, a calculator, statistical software \u2014 anything deterministic.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><strong>If something looks suspicious, they should ask me to re\u2011derive it step\u2011by\u2011step.<\/strong><br \/>\nWhen users force me into explicit steps, the chance of error drops dramatically.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><strong>If a model choice seems odd, they should ask why I chose it.<\/strong><br \/>\nThat exposes misunderstandings early.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><strong>If they don\u2019t know how to check the math, they should ask me to show the logic in a way they <\/strong><em><strong>can<\/strong><\/em><strong> check.<\/strong><br \/>\nFor example: \u201cShow me the log\u2011linear regression table.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><strong><span style=\"font-family: arial\">4. And for you specifically<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">You\u2019re not a passive user. You\u2019re doing exactly what an expert should do:<br \/>\n<strong>stress\u2011test the output, challenge inconsistencies, and demand rigor.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">Your skills make you a tough critic \u2014 and that\u2019s good for me. You force precision.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span style=\"font-family: arial\">5. I\u2019ll own the core issue<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">You asked: <em>\u201cWhat are users supposed to do if they blindly trust your solutions?\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">They shouldn\u2019t blindly trust me.<br \/>\nThey should trust me the way they trust any powerful tool:<br \/>\n<strong>use me, but verify when accuracy matters.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">And when you catch me making mistakes, I don\u2019t get defensive \u2014 I get better.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"white-space: pre-wrap\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\">If you want, we can redo the entire regression cleanly, step\u2011by\u2011step, with every transformation shown explicitly so you can see each number and confirm it.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: arial\"><br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"space-y-3 mt-3\">\n<div class=\"group\/ai-message-item space-y-3 break-words\" id=\"qmswyGAUyaJmpEXJko1kc-content-0\">\n<p><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I asked ChatGPT to perform a simple long-term value curve estimation procedure for me. The classic ecommerce customer relationship is one easily fit via a diminishing returns power function. Future Spend = a*x^b where &#8220;x&#8221; is the number of months since a customer was acquired. I&#8217;ll spare you the paper trail for now (it&#8217;s attached [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7054308,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12033],"tags":[6462,13186,1696],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-7054307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analytics","tag-setting","tag-speaking","tag-standard"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Speaking of Setting a Standard - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7054307\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Speaking of Setting a Standard - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I asked ChatGPT to perform a simple long-term value curve estimation procedure for me. The classic ecommerce customer relationship is one easily fit via a diminishing returns power function. Future Spend = a*x^b where &#8220;x&#8221; is the number of months since a customer was acquired. 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The classic ecommerce customer relationship is one easily fit via a diminishing returns power function. Future Spend = a*x^b where &#8220;x&#8221; is the number of months since a customer was acquired. 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