{"id":7047839,"date":"2026-08-25T22:20:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-25T22:20:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/testing-a-proxy-for-the-bank-of-america-bull-bear-indicator-cxo-advisory\/"},"modified":"2026-08-25T22:20:37","modified_gmt":"2026-08-25T22:20:37","slug":"testing-a-proxy-for-the-bank-of-america-bull-bear-indicator-cxo-advisory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7047839","title":{"rendered":"Testing a Proxy for the Bank of America Bull &#038; Bear Indicator \u2013 CXO Advisory"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"\">\n    <!-- Enhanced Schema.org JSON-LD --><\/p>\n<header>\n<p class=\"posted_cat\">\n        <span>Steve LeCompte<\/span> <span class=\"posted_cat-separator\">|<\/span><br \/>\n        <time datetime=\"2026-08-25T06:00:16-04:00\">August 25, 2026<\/time> <span class=\"posted_cat-separator u_hide_mobile\">|<\/span><br \/>\n         <span class=\"posted_cat-categories\"><em>Posted in: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cxoadvisory.com\/category\/sentiment-indicators\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Sentiment Indicators<\/a><\/span>\n      <\/p>\n<\/header>\n<section id=\"post_content\">\n<div itemprop=\"articleBody\">\n<div class=\"premium_preview_container\">\n<div class=\"premium_preview\">\n<p>Is the proprietary Bank of America Bull &amp; Bear Indicator, conventionally interpreted as good (bad) for future stock market returns when very low (very high), useful for market timing? Because the data series for this indicator is not publicly available, we ask <a href=\"https:\/\/claude.ai\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Claude<\/a> to estimate the data series from <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Barchart\/status\/2084126104890020293\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a publicly available chart<\/a>. Claude generated estimates of beginning-of-month values of the indicator, with cautions as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>This is a pixel reconstruction of a chart image, not sourced data, so data are approximate. Typical errors are \u00b10.2-0.3 units on a scale of 0-10 and \u00b12-4 weeks on turning points.<\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>June 2026 and July 2026 are set at 10.0, which look like contamination from chart annotations rather than genuine readings. [We use 9.4 and 9.7 from recent media reports rather than 10.0 for those two readings.]<\/li>\n<p>&#13;<\/p>\n<li>Anywhere annotations overlap the line, confidence is lower than elsewhere in the series.<\/li>\n<p>&#13;\n<\/ul>\n<p>Claude omitted June 2022 and July 2022 due to interfering annotations. Based on chart inspection, we used 0.0 for those two readings. With cautions in mind, we perform a battery of correlation, ranking and market timing tests on interactions between the estimated series and <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/SPY\/history\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust<\/a> (SPY) returns. Using estimated monthly Bull &amp; Bear Indicator values and end-of-month dividend-adjusted levels of SPY during February 2002 through July 2026, <em>we find that:<\/em>              <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"subscription-prompt\">\n<div class=\"subscription-prompt__card\">\n<p class=\"subscription-prompt__lead\">Get the research edge serious investors rely on.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"subscription-prompt__benefits\">\n<li>1,200+ research articles<\/li>\n<li>Monthly strategy signals<\/li>\n<li>20+ years of backtested analysis<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n                  <span class=\"subscription-prompt__amount\">$17.99<\/span><br \/>\n                  <span class=\"subscription-prompt__period\">\/month<\/span>\n                <\/p>\n<p class=\"subscription-prompt__trust\">Cancel anytime<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Steve LeCompte | August 25, 2026 | Posted in: Sentiment Indicators Is the proprietary Bank of America Bull &amp; Bear Indicator, conventionally interpreted as good (bad) for future stock market returns when very low (very high), useful for market timing? Because the data series for this indicator is not publicly available, we ask Claude to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7047841,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[17190,2708,2331,5690,1205,56448,35859,31796,12632],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-7047839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-advisory","tag-america","tag-bank","tag-bear","tag-bull","tag-cxo","tag-indicator","tag-proxy","tag-testing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Testing a Proxy for the Bank of America Bull &amp; Bear Indicator \u2013 CXO Advisory - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7047839\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Testing a Proxy for the Bank of America Bull &amp; Bear Indicator \u2013 CXO Advisory - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Steve LeCompte | August 25, 2026 | Posted in: Sentiment Indicators Is the proprietary Bank of America Bull &amp; Bear Indicator, conventionally interpreted as good (bad) for future stock market returns when very low (very high), useful for market timing? 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