{"id":7043002,"date":"2026-08-20T20:06:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T20:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/uncategorized\/prepare-for-catastrophe-emptywheel\/"},"modified":"2026-08-20T20:06:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T20:06:00","slug":"prepare-for-catastrophe-emptywheel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7043002","title":{"rendered":"Prepare for Catastrophe! &#8211; emptywheel"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Time to revisit my argument that people should remember there are multiple ways to fight fascism, all of which ideally work together to restore democracy.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/future\/article\/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world\" rel=\"external noopener noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">The Erica Chenoweth rule<\/a>, which says that if you can get 3.5% of a population in the streets, it often leads to regime change.<\/li>\n<li>Local node activism, as with immigration or data centers.<\/li>\n<li>Fighting in the courts.<\/li>\n<li>Beginning to peel off four people in the Senate or eight or nine people in the House.<\/li>\n<li>Waiting until 2026, winning at least one house of Congress, and beginning to rein in Trump that way.<\/li>\n<li>Rescuing Republicans from a predictable catastrophe like Democrats did in 2008 and 2020.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>I\u2019m revisiting this now for several reasons.<\/p>\n<h3>Local nodes<\/h3>\n<p>First, because I was badly overdue to add one of the most effective means of fighting fascism in the last 20 months, local activism of the sort we saw in LA, Chicago, and Minnesota in response to ICE invasions and of the sort we\u2019re seeing unite left and right to fight data centers. One strength that local activism has is that media coverage arises out of civil society, the activism itself. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/tech\/ai\/ai-data-center-rural-america-backlash-c0af4e16\">This remarkable WSJ story<\/a> on the activism opposing a Meta data center in Kentucky, for example, describes how activists used hunting maps to track what land Meta was snatching up.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Local officials have tried to assure residents that they are dealing with a major player in AI, not a fly-by-night operator.<\/p>\n<p>Residents spent months piecing together the rumors and clues that float through a small town. One local official said the builder is among the 10 biggest companies in the world. A Maysville woman traveling with her husband on a work trip coincidentally met a man who said he\u2019d been in the area on behalf of Meta.<\/p>\n<p>A public-records request yielded clearer evidence: hundreds of pages of land studies and applications filed by an LLC established for \u201cProject Crisham.\u201d The contact for that LLC, a fiduciary director in the greater Philadelphia area named Pamela Gregorski, has worked on several data-center projects that were later revealed to be Meta sites.<\/p>\n<p>With little information at hand, Bare and her neighbors have coordinated their research.<\/p>\n<p>Janet Garrison, a dirt-bike-riding grandmother who taught information technology at the local community college, downloaded an app used by hunters to map the plots being acquired. She and others set up an information booth at the local fair.<\/p>\n<p>When Garrison first learned of the data center, she thought of her former students and the jobs it might bring. Soon the opaque process irked her.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe wanted to be a part of this,\u201d she said. \u201cBut the NDAs\u2026they just locked down and backed up.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In the case of data centers, this local opposition has provided <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/08\/19\/gop-data-center-memo-ai-election\">the base<\/a> for political candidates to turn support from Big Data and AI companies into a toxin.<\/p>\n<p>One limitation with the Erica Chenoweth rule is it\u2019s not clear how it works in a country as big as the US. These local nodes provide one of the answers.<\/p>\n<h3>Don\u2019t put off to January what could be done today<\/h3>\n<p>Another reason I\u2019m reposting this is I\u2019m seeing an increasing number of people not just <em>assuming<\/em> Democrats will win (in an election assumed to be free and fair without Trump interference) at least one house of Congress in November, but also assuming Democratic subpoenas will be more effective than something they can do now.<\/p>\n<p>While winning one or even both houses of Congress does look increasingly likely, we can\u2019t assume elections will be free and fair and the huge GOP infusion of cash have not yet hit most races.<\/p>\n<p>Plus, people are <a href=\"https:\/\/emptywheel.net\/2026\/08\/11\/how-to-drain-trumps-corruption-pool\/\">insanely optimistic<\/a> about how quickly Democratic Committee Chairpersons will be able to exercise oversight over Trump (as distinct from private industry). Trump succeeded in obstructing such efforts in 2019, and he has new tools to use to do so going forward. That\u2019s not to say Democrats shouldn\u2019t try, but until Democrats either win a bunch of lawsuits (with Trump\u2019s SCOTUS) or defund everything until Trump cries uncle, <em>subpoena power will not be the magic antidote many are treating it as<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>There are existing tools that may be more effective than subpoena power, and if we focus on using them now, then the chances of winning the election and exercising real oversight will go up as well.<\/p>\n<h3>Chances of snowballing catastrophes are increasing<\/h3>\n<p>But the biggest reason I\u2019m posting now is <a href=\"https:\/\/emptywheel.net\/2026\/06\/01\/there-are-22-weeks-of-potential-crisis-and-catastrophe-before-election-day\/\">to follow-up<\/a> on the last installment of this argument I made.<\/p>\n<p>As item 6 on this argues, two of the only times right wingers have been willing to \u2014 have begged \u2014 to share power this decade came after right wing catastrophes: the Wall Street crisis in 2008 and COVID in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Neither time did Democrats, empowered by the leverage of GOP desperation, exact enough from Republicans. Had Obama simply invested more, demanded accountability from the banks, and jailed people for stealing people\u2019s homes via mortgage fraud, the entire world would be in a different place. And as we speak, Trump is using that the fraud enabled by the approach used to float the economy during COVID to defund blue states.<\/p>\n<p>But we\u2019re at the point where Trump\u2019s incompetence is beginning to create snowballing problems.<\/p>\n<p>DOGE and RFK Jr \u2014 with an assist from Brooke Rollins \u2014 have conspired to allow debilitating <a href=\"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/fullarticle\/2853046\">illnesses<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/newrepublic.com\/post\/213201\/doge-gutted-office-explosive-diarrhea-parasite-response\">bugs<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/eu.usatoday.com\/story\/money\/food\/2026\/08\/11\/raw-beef-recalled-missed-inspection\/91253506007\/\">poisons<\/a> flourish.<\/p>\n<p>Whiskey Pete Hegseth <a href=\"https:\/\/zeteo.com\/p\/scoop-trumps-iran-war-has-burned\">has shot America\u2019s collective wad<\/a>, pushed multiple ships to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.militarytimes.com\/news\/your-military\/2026\/08\/11\/multiple-uss-abraham-lincoln-sailors-have-tried-to-go-overboard-amid-extended-deployment-families-say\/\">the brink of mutiny or suicide<\/a> and in response <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/aircraft-carriers-trump-china-pacific-iran-war-87cfb838de8c13464fa3cab1840ad87d\">led to further retreats from the Pacific<\/a>. The price of oil is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/08\/20\/oil-prices-brent-wti-hormuz-trump.html\">heading north again<\/a>. Trump has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/08\/10\/oil-in-strategic-petroleum-reserve-falls-below-300-million-barrels-lowest-since-1983.html\">emptied<\/a> the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/08\/15\/strategic-petroleum-reserve-spr-oil-iran-war-caverns.html\">dangerous levels<\/a>. Iran has threatened to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/show\/top-adviser-to-irans-revolutionary-guard-leader-sits-down-for-rare-interview\">treat the next 30 months<\/a> like an extended hostage crisis. The US <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2026\/08\/18\/pentagon-evaluating-smaller-us-military-presence-persian-gulf-after-iran-war\/\">is considering<\/a> retreating from the Middle East. Both <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/08\/18\/nx-s1-5936283\/iran-war-puts-oman-and-other-gulf-allies-in-a-difficult-spot\">US Gulf<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/articles\/trumps-south-korea-move-fuels-growing-fears-of-u-s-retreat-from-asia\">Asian allies<\/a> are feeling betrayed and shopping security options elsewhere.<\/p>\n<p>Partly as a result of that, and partly as a result of Trump\u2019s other financial mismanagement, Scott Bessent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-08-20\/bessent-s-plan-at-best-circuit-breaker-for-global-bond-slump?srnd=homepage-europe\">is tinkering<\/a> with the economy in a way that normally reflects a crisis. And Bessent\u2019s efforts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/08\/20\/business\/treasury-bond-market-interventionist-tactics.html\">aren\u2019t working<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s corruption <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/trump-reflecting-pool-national-park-service-c2ba61c896028b1c4ef87811a70fb8d9\">is destroying<\/a> the government services that Americans rely on.<\/p>\n<p>Around the world, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatecentral.org\/climate-shift-index-alert\/climate-change-fueling-extreme-rainfall-flooding-hitting-communities-across-US\">extreme climate<\/a> is creating day-to-day risks for ordinary people. This winter the combination of the Iran War and climate problems may lead to further increases in food prices, if not shortages.<\/p>\n<p>Hospitals <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2026\/03\/02\/politics\/hospital-cuts-big-beautiful-bill-midterms\">are closing<\/a>. People <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/politics\/articles\/eight-million-americans-lost-healthcare-133936655.html\">are losing health care<\/a>. People <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/07\/20\/us\/politics\/snap-food-stamps-arizona.html\">are losing food stamps<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Largely to feed conspiracy theories, Trump <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/national-security\/2026\/08\/trump-iran-elections-cyberattacks\/688297\/\">gutted cybersecurity<\/a> (and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us-warns-siemens-devices-can-be-hacked-amid-fears-iran-is-breaching-water-plants-2026-08-19\/\">Iran exploited that<\/a>) even as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/cp30989ee1wo\">AI makes<\/a> it far easier to carry out massive attacks \u2014 even by accident.<\/p>\n<p>A few weeks back Dan Drezner <a href=\"https:\/\/danieldrezner.substack.com\/p\/is-the-united-states-the-next-russia\">contemplated<\/a> something I\u2019ve been contemplating as well. How long will it be until Americans experience attacks within the US that affect their day-to-day life?<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s going to happen if, via some combination of all this, cities lose their water supply (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/puerto-rico-is-rationing-water-it-could-avoid-it-by-harvesting-rainwater\/\">which has already happened in Puerto Rico<\/a>) or broad regions lose their electricity? What happens if that occurs during an extreme weather event when millions rely on air conditioning?<\/p>\n<p>Obviously, these snowballing problems only increase Democrats\u2019 chances in November. They increase the likelihood that \u2014 as happened in 2008, when John McCain <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/world\/mccain-takes-lead-over-obama-poll-idUSN19271976\/\">took the lead in at least one poll<\/a> on August 20 and then picked a charismatic governor as running mate who ended up backfiring, only to have a massive economic crisis starting a month later \u2014 November will look very different than it currently does.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"This is the day Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008\" width=\"840\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/otoFXoHW6N8?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>But they also increase the chance that there\u2019ll be a catastrophe \u2014 multiple catastrophes \u2014 at a time when Trump has stripped the government, and especially his cabinet, of competent people. And if something happens \u2014 if, as is easily foreseeable, multiple somethings happen at once \u2014 we need to be prepared both to help save lives and livelihoods, but also to use the crisis, NeoCon style, as a way to reverse Trump\u2019s abuses. As Naomi Klein <a href=\"https:\/\/naomiklein.org\/the-shock-doctrine\/\">taught us almost two decades ago<\/a>, if you don\u2019t respond to disaster, the fascists will.<\/p>\n<p>One reason I harp endlessly on the multiple ways to fight fascism is that many of the most effective ways to fight fascism don\u2019t involve the Democratic Party, sure as hell don\u2019t require the leadership of Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries.<\/p>\n<p>There is never an excuse to expect the Democratic Party to fight this fight for you, because some of the most effective ways to fight are things you can do personally.<\/p>\n<p>We don\u2019t know what will happen in the near or long term. We do know that if we\u2019re pursuing all measures, every method of fighting fascism is more likely to succeed.<\/p>\n<p>But I also want people \u2014 including Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries \u2014 to consider what happens if Donald Trump, or Republicans watching him destroy the country, declare uncle and beg to be bailed out before we even get to November.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Time to revisit my argument that people should remember there are multiple ways to fight fascism, all of which ideally work together to restore democracy. The Erica Chenoweth rule, which says that if you can get 3.5% of a population in the streets, it often leads to regime change. Local node activism, as with immigration [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7043003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[205422,172547,205424,97082,118018,12167,102828,205423,97081,205425,109923,205426,168725,132928],"tags":[32902,205427,18920,205429,205428,11164,33874,75154],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-7043002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2008-presidential-election","category-2020-presidential-election","category-chuck-schumer","category-climate-change","category-cybersecurity","category-economics","category-elon-musk","category-energy-policy","category-environment","category-hakeem-jeffries","category-iran","category-rfk-jr-2","category-scott-bessent","category-war","tag-catastrophe","tag-chuck-schumer","tag-elon-musk","tag-emptywheel","tag-hakeem-jeffries","tag-prepare","tag-rfk-jr","tag-scott-bessent"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Prepare for Catastrophe! - emptywheel - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7043002\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Prepare for Catastrophe! - emptywheel - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Time to revisit my argument that people should remember there are multiple ways to fight fascism, all of which ideally work together to restore democracy. 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The Erica Chenoweth rule, which says that if you can get 3.5% of a population in the streets, it often leads to regime change. 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