{"id":7039552,"date":"2026-08-16T16:58:21","date_gmt":"2026-08-16T16:58:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/real-estate\/bmo-dismisses-canadas-soaring-insolvencies-heres-why-theyre-wrong\/"},"modified":"2026-08-16T16:58:21","modified_gmt":"2026-08-16T16:58:21","slug":"bmo-dismisses-canadas-soaring-insolvencies-heres-why-theyre-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7039552","title":{"rendered":"BMO Dismisses Canada\u2019s Soaring Insolvencies. Here\u2019s Why They\u2019re Wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div itemprop=\"mainEntityOfPage\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canadian insolvency filings have been surging, but it doesn\u2019t really matter. That was the take from <a href=\"https:\/\/capitalmarkets.bmo.com\/\">BMO Capital Markets<\/a>, which dismissed the issue due to population growth. In a note to investors, the bank explained the per capita trend remains healthy. There\u2019s just one problem\u2014their take makes no sense.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Canada Has Near-Record Insolvencies. Does It Matter?\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There were 13,254 insolvency filings in June, up 11.5% from last year and more than double 2020\u2019s volume. Only <a href=\"https:\/\/betterdwelling.com\/canadian-insolvencies-surge-to-second-highest-june-on-record\/\">June 2009 came in higher<\/a>, with nothing else even close on the books. That may sound concerning, but BMO sees population growth as a mitigating factor.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAs has been reported in recent days, consumer insolvencies are running near the highest level since the 2009 recession. Adjusting for the size of Canada\u2019s population, however, the level has basically just normalized back to pre-pandemic conditions,\u201d explains BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More people equals a smaller ratio of credit losses, after all. \u201c\u200b\u200bThe real story is that there is really no story,\u201d he adds.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not exactly.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Canadian Insolvencies Per Capit<\/strong>a Are Low. That Doesn\u2019t Mean What Many Think It Does<\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Canadian insolvencies per capita, seasonally adjusted<\/em>. <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/betterdwelling.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/BMO-Dismisses-Canadas-Soaring-Insolvencies.-Heres-Why-Theyre-Wrong-BMO-Per-Capita.png?ssl=1\"><img loading=\"lazy\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1140\" height=\"815\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/betterdwelling.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/BMO-Dismisses-Canadas-Soaring-Insolvencies.-Heres-Why-Theyre-Wrong-BMO-Per-Capita.png?resize=1140%2C815&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/betterdwelling.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/BMO-Dismisses-Canadas-Soaring-Insolvencies.-Heres-Why-Theyre-Wrong-BMO-Per-Capita.png?resize=1170%2C836&amp;ssl=1 1170w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/betterdwelling.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/BMO-Dismisses-Canadas-Soaring-Insolvencies.-Heres-Why-Theyre-Wrong-BMO-Per-Capita.png?resize=721%2C515&amp;ssl=1 721w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/betterdwelling.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/BMO-Dismisses-Canadas-Soaring-Insolvencies.-Heres-Why-Theyre-Wrong-BMO-Per-Capita.png?resize=768%2C549&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/betterdwelling.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/BMO-Dismisses-Canadas-Soaring-Insolvencies.-Heres-Why-Theyre-Wrong-BMO-Per-Capita.png?resize=1536%2C1098&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/betterdwelling.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/BMO-Dismisses-Canadas-Soaring-Insolvencies.-Heres-Why-Theyre-Wrong-BMO-Per-Capita.png?w=1662&amp;ssl=1 1662w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width:2560px) 100vw, 2560px\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: BMO Capital Markets. <\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Per capita calculations are important, and we often stress they\u2019re essential for understanding data. GDP is the most common point we reference, as the number is often used to frame the health of an economy. People might be doing worse, but without a per capita breakdown, policymakers can simply add more people to show growth.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The logic of dismissing the trend based on per capita growth is just as bad as the logic of using aggregate GDP. Insolvencies were already aggressively rising in 2019, paused for the pandemic, then resumed their climb right afterwards. Rising insolvencies were a concern in 2019, but changing immigration so it averages down per capita, and the concern is suddenly dismissed.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cDon\u2019t worry about the pensioner getting crushed by the cost of living, we got two students!\u201d feels like an insane argument to dismiss rising insolvencies, but that\u2019s effectively BMO\u2019s position here. That brings us to our next issue\u2014qualifying the data.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Canada Might Have More People, But Does That Mean More Loans?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another point we stress in finance is that data needs to be qualified for it to be relevant. A good example is the real estate industry conflating demand with qualified buyers. Yes, a lot of people want to buy a home, but if they can\u2019t afford it, that\u2019s not really the same. If a household\u2019s income is a third of the amount needed for a mortgage, their demand for home buying is equivalent to their demand for Lambos. That said, let\u2019s review the population growth diluting the credit woes.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the past 5 years, roughly 40% of Canada\u2019s population growth came from non-permanent residents (NPRs). The demographic is composed largely of temporary workers and international students. Like most immigrants, those two groups tend to lack unsecured credit access and need to front the funds to secure any credit.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That\u2019s relevant because virtually all consumer insolvencies are the result of unsecured credit. The OSB doesn\u2019t track immigration status (publicly, at least), but they have explained that most insolvency filers (57% in 2024) had a bank loan with a median value of $20,000, and for 1 in 5 (20%) filers, it\u2019s not their first rodeo\u2014they\u2019ve filed at least once before.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not exactly the profile of NPRs, but we\u2019ll concede that growth hasn\u2019t exclusively been immigrants. Some people had babies too, and not to sound discriminatory against babies, but they make terrible financial decisions.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Qualifying it from the bank\u2019s perspective, more loans mean credit loss allowances can rise. One person\u2019s failure is fine as long as you can find 99 more to keep that ratio down. However, they should understand this problem better than most. Despite Canada\u2019s massive population growth, <a href=\"https:\/\/betterdwelling.com\/canadian-mortgage-arrears-hit-recession-levels-reality-is-likely-worse\/\">banks hold the fewest mortgages since 2020 and have seen the arrears rate approach a 10-year high<\/a>. Tragically, they can\u2019t report their losses on a per capita basis.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><h3 class=\"jp-relatedposts-headline\"><em>You Might Also Like<\/em><\/h3>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canadian insolvency filings have been surging, but it doesn\u2019t really matter. That was the take from BMO Capital Markets, which dismissed the issue due to population growth. In a note to investors, the bank explained the per capita trend remains healthy. There\u2019s just one problem\u2014their take makes no sense.\u00a0 Canada Has Near-Record Insolvencies. Does It [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7039553,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[99],"tags":[132422,20079,32582,6765,118213,13993,26305,6773],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-7039552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-estate","tag-bmo","tag-canadas","tag-dismisses","tag-heres","tag-insolvencies","tag-soaring","tag-theyre","tag-wrong"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>BMO Dismisses Canada\u2019s Soaring Insolvencies. 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