{"id":7035994,"date":"2026-08-10T01:56:28","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T01:56:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/uncategorized\/rate-rises-wipe-100000-from-australian-homebuying-budgets\/"},"modified":"2026-08-10T01:56:28","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T01:56:28","slug":"rate-rises-wipe-100000-from-australian-homebuying-budgets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7035994","title":{"rendered":"Rate rises wipe $100,000 from Australian homebuying budgets"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Australian couples earning two average wages could lose an estimated $92,500 in borrowing power after four rate rises, even as home prices fall.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Falling home prices should be good news for buyers, but a brutal borrowing-power squeeze means many could still be worse off. See the cities facing the biggest falls.<\/p>\n

Australian couples each earning the average wage could have almost $100,000 wiped from their homebuying budgets this year, even as property prices fall by tens of thousands of dollars.<\/p>\n

Canstar analysis shows three RBA rate rises this year have already cut the estimated maximum borrowing capacity of such a couple by $70,700.
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A fourth increase would take the reduction to $92,500 compared with the start of the year.<\/p>\n

For a single buyer earning the average wage, the estimated hit has already reached $35,400 and would rise to $46,300 after another increase.<\/p>\n

The figures come ahead of the RBA board’s next cash rate decision on Tuesday, with another rise threatening to further squeeze how much homebuyers can borrow.<\/p>\n

It creates a cruel catch for would-be homeowners hoping falling property prices will make it easier to buy.<\/p>\n

NAB’s latest forecasts indicate house prices could fall further between August and December in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide.<\/p>\n

Canstar calculations using Cotality data show Sydney’s median house price could shed another $67,284 by the end of 2026, taking it to about $1.462m.<\/p>\n

That would amount to a $162,447 fall across the full calendar year.<\/p>\n

Melbourne’s median house price could lose another $30,748 by December to $905,780, taking its estimated full-year fall to $89,583.<\/p>\n

Adelaide could lose another $30,754 from current levels, Brisbane $28,380 and Perth $17,200.<\/p>\n

But Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide would still finish the year above where they started after price growth earlier in 2026.<\/p>\n

Hobart was the exception among the capitals covered by the analysis, with its median house price forecast to rise another $2095 by the end of the year.<\/p>\n

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Canstar Data Insights director Sally Tindall. Picture: supplied. NSW real estate<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Canstar.com.au data insights director Sally Tindall said falling prices did not automatically make homes more affordable.<\/p>\n

“For would-be buyers, this is shaping up to be a classic case of one step forward, two steps back,” Ms Tindall said.<\/p>\n

“The challenge for buyers is that a cheaper price tag doesn’t necessarily mean a more affordable home if your borrowing capacity has been cut at the same time.<\/p>\n

“Another rate hike, should one eventuate this year, would tighten the screws even further.”<\/p>\n

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BANK CLOSURE: The NAB Sawtell branch will close its doors next month as more customers make the switch to internet and mobile services.Coffs Harbour, October 24<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Ms Tindall said recent buyers with little equity could also be exposed if NAB’s forecasts were realised.<\/p>\n

“If NAB’s forecast plays out across house prices, estimates show a median-priced house in Sydney could fall by more than $160,000 over the 12 months to December this year,” she said.<\/p>\n

“That’s a tough pill to swallow for homeowners who bought at the peak with next to no buffer. Negative equity is a very real prospect for these borrowers.”<\/p>\n

Frame Finance director and mortgage broker Imogen Alexy said buyers were increasingly splitting into two camps as borrowing capacity fell.<\/p>\n

“There’s a really big divide,” Ms Alexy said.<\/p>\n

She said losing $70,000-$90,000 in borrowing power could mean staying in a preferred area but sacrificing a bedroom, outdoor space or overall home size, or moving further away to find something affordable.<\/p>\n

“Either way, you have to be prepared to make a sacrifice,” she said.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Frame Finance director and principal broker Imogen Alexy – for Herald Sun Real Estate<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Ms Alexy said some buyers who could comfortably afford their preferred type of property six months ago could no longer do so.<\/p>\n

Others were delaying purchases in the hope prices would fall further, but another rate rise could leave them with less borrowing power despite having saved a larger deposit.<\/p>\n

She said some people who spent another six to 12 months accumulating savings were returning to brokers to discover higher rates had effectively wiped out the benefit.<\/p>\n

“All of those savings are essentially nullified and they’re back to square one,” Ms Alexy said.<\/p>\n

“That’s a really tough conversation to have.”<\/p>\n

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Property Investment Professionals of Australia chair Cate Bakos said the research provided a crucial counter-narrative to the speculative behaviour often seen in the market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Property Investment Professionals of Australia chair Cate Bakos said first-home buyers were not automatically better off simply because property values were falling.<\/p>\n

“If borrowing capacity falls at a faster rate than house prices are falling, then obviously the outcome for a buyer is negative,” Ms Bakos said.<\/p>\n

She said buyers with stronger incomes and enough serviceability to comfortably secure the loan they needed were better placed to take advantage of weaker prices.<\/p>\n

Others could be pushed from houses into units or forced to search further from major cities as their budgets contracted.<\/p>\n

Ms Bakos said recent low-deposit buyers should not necessarily panic about falling valuations if they planned to remain in their homes.<\/p>\n

“Negative equity only bites if you crystallise a loss,” she said.<\/p>\n

“If they’re making a decision to sell, then obviously that will be a blow for them, but it doesn’t really matter what your property’s worth if it’s just a value on paper and you’re staying put.”<\/p>\n

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A real estate For Sale sign on a property in East Toowoomba, house for sale, Thursday, December 21, 2017.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Despite the gloomy outlook, Ms Bakos warned buyers with the financial capacity to purchase against waiting indefinitely for prices to fall further.<\/p>\n

“If you’ve got the capacity to buy a property that’s right for you now, standing back and adopting a wait-and-see approach is not what I’d recommend,” she said.<\/p>\n

“We’re going to have a recovery and people will be sad that they’ve missed the boat.”<\/p>\n

She said current conditions could favour purchasers, but only those financially capable of acting on them.<\/p>\n

“It’s a buyer’s market, but you can only take advantage of it if you’ve got the capacity to move forward,” Ms Bakos said.<\/p>\n

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Sign up to the Herald Sun Weekly Real Estate Update. Click here <\/a>to get the latest Victorian property market news delivered direct to your inbox.<\/p>\n

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david.bonaddio@news.com.au<\/p>\n

The post Rate rises wipe $100,000 from Australian homebuying budgets<\/a> appeared first on realestate.com.au<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Australian couples earning two average wages could lose an estimated $92,500 in borrowing power after four rate rises, even as home prices fall. Falling home prices should be good news for buyers, but a brutal borrowing-power squeeze means many could still be worse off. See the cities facing the biggest falls. Australian couples each earning […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7035995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[88],"tags":[9128,44067,22052,1485,23343,11479],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-7035994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-australian","tag-budgets","tag-homebuying","tag-rate","tag-rises","tag-wipe"],"yoast_head":"\nRate rises wipe $100,000 from Australian homebuying budgets - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7035994\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rate rises wipe $100,000 from Australian homebuying budgets - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australian couples earning two average wages could lose an estimated $92,500 in borrowing power after four rate rises, even as home prices fall. 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