{"id":7026341,"date":"2026-08-04T06:07:07","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T06:07:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/legal\/election-2026-three-months-to-go\/"},"modified":"2026-08-04T06:07:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T06:07:07","slug":"election-2026-three-months-to-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7026341","title":{"rendered":"Election 2026: Three Months to Go"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<h3>Election 2026: Three Months to Go<\/h3>\n<h2 class=\"subtitle\">Gerrymandering has given House Republicans a boost, and the Senate leans toward the GOP, but it still promises to be a real horse race.<\/h2>\n<section class=\"wpa-content-summary\" id=\"summary-47885\">\n<div class=\"wpa-content-summary-inner\">\n<h2>Summary<\/h2>\n<p>Aggressive gerrymandering has given Republicans a better chance of holding control of the House of Representatives.  Democrats have an uphill battle in trying to take control of the Senate because of the specific Senate seats that are up for grabs.  The ultimate outcome remains anyone&#8217;s guess.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given partisan polarization on climate change and other environmental issues, the composition of Congress makes a big impact. We\u2019re three months from election day. This post scopes out what things look like now.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Obviously, things will change between now and the election. It\u2019s worth reflecting, however, on how it would impact policy if current trends continue.\u00a0 President Trump will continue to have a huge amount of power either way, but a new Congress could still make a difference. As in past posts on elections, I will use \u00a0political forecasts by Cook and Sabato as guidance.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Democrats would need to flip 4 seats to take control of the Senate. \u00a0According to Cook\u2019s tally, they would need to hold Michigan, win North Carolina (where they\u2019re somewhat favored), and win toss-up races in Alaska, Maine, and Ohio. \u00a0If they lose any of those, they would have to carry Texas or Iowa, which are leaning Republican.\u00a0 Sabato\u2019s forecast was a bit different than Cook\u2019s earlier in the cycle, but they now seem to have converged. \u00a0Other experts see some likely Democratic pickups in the Senate but doubt the Democrats can win a majority.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even if Democrats don\u2019t win Senate control, narrowing the gap might be significant even if Democrats don\u2019t gain control. For instance, if Democrats picked up three \u00a0seats, Lisa Murkowski would be the swing voter, and she\u2019s quite independently minded. That would seriously undermine Trump\u2019s influence.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the House, the Supreme Court opened the door to a furious round of gerrymandering aimed at getting rid of majority-black districts.\u00a0 The result was to push the House elections, which had been leaning Democratic, \u00a0back towards the Republicans.\u00a0 Cook lists 18 toss-up elections. Republicans would need to win 6 of them to control the House, while Democrats would need to win 12.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Before last week, Sabato\u2019s assessment was very similar. But Sabato made major updates on Thursday, which now show twenty toss-up seats, with Democrats and Republicans basically tied. \u00a0It\u2019s worth noting that experts who are looking at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2026\/07\/13\/opinion\/midterms-pollsters-pundits-scorecard.html?emc=edit_ufn_20260724&amp;nl=from-the-times&amp;segment_id=223610\">national trends<\/a> rather than trying to assess individual districts seem more bullish on Democratic chances. Sabato, at least, is moving in their direction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Considering Trump\u2019s unpopularity, Republicans are doing better than you might expect. In the House, that\u2019s largely due to gerrymandering set off by the Supreme Court\u2019s intervention during primary season. In the Senate, it\u2019s a tribute to how bad the 2026 Senate election map is for the Democrats.\u00a0 Democrats still have a good chance of picking up at least one house of Congress, but it\u2019s not as good as it was before the conservative Supreme Court Justices jumped into the fray.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All of this matters because, even in an era of powerful Presidents, Congress still retains significant power of its own.\u00a0 It can engage in investigations, block spending, add riders to spending bills, and in the case of the Senate, reject judicial nominations. All of that matters in terms of environmental policy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We should know three months from now about whether those powers are going to remain in Republican hands, assuming that we\u2019re allowed to have a halfway normal election.<\/p>\n<p><!-- AddThis Advanced Settings above via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Advanced Settings below via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Advanced Settings generic via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons above via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons below via filter on the_content --><!-- AddThis Share Buttons generic via filter on the_content -->\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p class=\"tags\"><i class=\"fa fa-tag\"\/> <a href=\"https:\/\/legal-planet.org\/tag\/2026-election\/\" rel=\"tag\">2026 Election<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/legal-planet.org\/tag\/climate-politics\/\" rel=\"tag\">Climate Politics<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/legal-planet.org\/tag\/congressional-powers\/\" rel=\"tag\">congressional powers<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/legal-planet.org\/tag\/control-of-congress\/\" rel=\"tag\">control of Congress<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/legal-planet.org\/tag\/environmental-politics\/\" rel=\"tag\">environmental politics<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/legal-planet.org\/tag\/supreme-court-and-politics\/\" rel=\"tag\">Supreme Court and politics<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/legal-planet.org\/tag\/u-s-house-of-representatives\/\" rel=\"tag\">U.S. House of Representatives<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/legal-planet.org\/tag\/u-s-senate\/\" rel=\"tag\">U.S. Senate<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Election 2026: Three Months to Go Gerrymandering has given House Republicans a boost, and the Senate leans toward the GOP, but it still promises to be a real horse race. Summary Aggressive gerrymandering has given Republicans a better chance of holding control of the House of Representatives. Democrats have an uphill battle in trying to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7026342,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[97],"tags":[172615,38406,190039,190040,11730,38408,2907,190041,50380,29525],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-7026341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-legal","tag-2026-election","tag-climate-politics","tag-congressional-powers","tag-control-of-congress","tag-election","tag-environmental-politics","tag-months","tag-supreme-court-and-politics","tag-u-s-house-of-representatives","tag-u-s-senate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Election 2026: Three Months to Go - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=7026341\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Election 2026: Three Months to Go - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Election 2026: Three Months to Go Gerrymandering has given House Republicans a boost, and the Senate leans toward the GOP, but it still promises to be a real horse race. 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