{"id":68189,"date":"2025-02-04T17:42:23","date_gmt":"2025-02-04T17:42:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/real-estate\/the-2025-trb-real-estate-prediction-game\/"},"modified":"2025-02-04T17:42:23","modified_gmt":"2025-02-04T17:42:23","slug":"the-2025-trb-real-estate-prediction-game","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=68189","title":{"rendered":"The 2025 TRB Real Estate Prediction Game!"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

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I\u2019ve been in the same fantasy football pool since 2002.<\/p>\n

Almost a quarter-century, it\u2019s crazy!\u00a0 And while most football pools see guys come and go, ours has been with the same guys since we started.<\/p>\n

Actually, that\u2019s not exactly<\/em> true.<\/p>\n

The first guy left in 2016 after he moved overseas and couldn\u2019t keep up with football in a different time zone.<\/p>\n

The second and third guys left in 2021 after a bit of internal discourse, which is natural after\u00a0nineteen\u00a0<\/em>years!<\/p>\n

Then a fourth guy left in 2022.\u00a0 Actually, he was the first replacement in 2016, but despite himself\u00a0being<\/em> a replacement, he decided to have somebody replace him\u2026<\/p>\n

When we started the league in 2002, the entrance fee was $50.00.\u00a0 That made sense at the time.\u00a0 Most of us were in university and some of the older guys were just starting their careers.<\/p>\n

In 2005, we determined that $50.00 wasn\u2019t enough, considering we spent\u00a0hundreds<\/em> of hours per week on this past time, so we raised the fee to $100.00.<\/p>\n

Fast forward two decades.<\/p>\n

Do you know what the pool fee is\u00a0now<\/em>?<\/p>\n

$100.00.<\/p>\n

Still<\/em>.<\/p>\n

And despite my clamouring to raise the fee to $500 or $1,000 many,\u00a0many<\/em> years ago, some of the guys just won\u2019t agree.<\/p>\n

My point?<\/p>\n

Well, although I \u201cfounded\u201d our football pool in 2002 and serve as the League Commissioner, it\u2019s still a democracy.\u00a0 I can\u2019t just unilaterally raise the pool fees.<\/p>\n

However, when it comes to the TRG Prediction Game, I can do whatever I want!<\/p>\n

Last year, I offered a $200 gift card to Tim Horton\u2019s or Starbucks to the winner of our contest, which was posted on this blog on January 13th, 2024.<\/p>\n

It was a blast!<\/p>\n

I thoroughly enjoyed checking the ongoing tally and providing updates as the year went along, and I was delighted to see TRB reader and frequent commenter, Marina,\u00a0<\/em>win the prize in the end.<\/p>\n

This year, I want to up the ante.<\/p>\n

\n

This year\u2019s TRB Prediction Game will have a grand prize of $500.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

That would be a\u00a0lot<\/em> of coffee.\u00a0 So why don\u2019t we say it\u2019s a $500 gift card to LCBO this year?<\/p>\n

Ready to enter?<\/p>\n

I love predictions.<\/p>\n

As a child, I was always obsessed with the future, and then looking\u00a0back<\/em> at the past.\u00a0 So much so, in fact, that I used to write myself notes and leave them around the house to find.<\/p>\n

\u201cHey Dave, it\u2019s Dave.\u00a0 How many goals did you end up scoring by the end of the 1994-95 house league season?\u00a0 More than 20, I hope!\u00a0 -Dave\u201d<\/p>\n

Seriously.<\/p>\n

I never said I\u00a0wasn\u2019t<\/em> weird, and if you\u2019re just figuring this out by now, then who\u2019s the weird one?<\/p>\n

I love the idea of a TRB Prediction Game!\u00a0 I only wish I had posted it sooner.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, I\u2019m going to assume that January was just as busy for you as it was for me, so there\u2019s no time like the present!<\/p>\n

This year\u2019s game is going to be very different, however.<\/p>\n

Last year, the game was simple.\u00a0 It was\u00a0only<\/em> about interest rates, and there were only three questions:<\/p>\n

1) What is the date of the first Bank of Canada interest rate cut?
2) How many basis points will that first cut be?
3) How many cumulative basis points will be cut by the end of 2025?<\/p>\n

The first two questions were answered by June, but we had to consistently monitor the Bank of Canada through the end of 2025 and add up all the basis points, with each and every cut.<\/p>\n

This year, the game needs to change.\u00a0 It can\u2019t only be about interest rates.<\/p>\n

Not only that, if we\u2019re going to up the ante for the prize, we need to up the ante for the contest itself.<\/p>\n

So this year, let\u2019s do\u00a0ten\u00a0<\/em>questions.<\/p>\n

And let\u2019s touch as many data points as we can:<\/p>\n

-Prices
-Sales
-Inventory
-Absorption
-Bank of Canada<\/p>\n

Shall we?<\/p>\n

Any questions, let me know!<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

1) What will be the average home price for 2025? (point scored if guess is +\/- 2%)<\/h3>\n

Very simple: are you bullish or bearish, and more importantly, by how much?<\/p>\n

If the average home price is $1,200,000 in 2025, then you get a point so long as your guess is between $1,176,000 and $1,224,000.<\/p>\n

I think a 2% range is reasonable, right?<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re smart, you\u2019re not going to pick the\u00a0price<\/em> but rather think about the range<\/em>, and then find the midpoint for your guess\u2026<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a brief refresher on the average home price over the last five years:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

If these figures do\u00a0not<\/em> look familiar to you, it\u2019s because I typically offer a breakdown\u00a0by month<\/em>.\u00a0 These yearly figures are part of TRREB\u2019s Market Watch and are updated every January.\u00a0 \u00a0You can find them\u00a0HERE<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

2) Which\u00a0month<\/em> of the year will represent the highest average home price? (point scored for correct month)<\/h3>\n

Also a simple enough question, right?<\/p>\n

Pick a month.\u00a0 Any month.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m a big fan of this question, but that\u2019s because I loved coming up with my \u201cpeak price\u201d matrix, which I\u2019ll show you here as a cheat sheet:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Ignore the question mark for December of 2024.\u00a0 Knowing that price wouldn\u2019t help us at all.<\/p>\n

Pick a month.\u00a0 Any month.<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

3) Will any individual month\u2019s average home price top $1,200,000? (point scored for correct Y\/N)<\/h3>\n

This is also simple.\u00a0 I mean, duh, it\u2019s a\u00a0yes\/no<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Just consider how long it\u2019s been since we saw an average home price over that figure.<\/p>\n

Do you remember?<\/p>\n

May of 2022.<\/em><\/p>\n

In fact, I\u2019ve basically been chasing the $1.2 Million figure ever since, asking the question of\u00a0when<\/em> we\u2019ll top it once again.<\/p>\n

A refresher:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

A simple \u201cyes\u201d or \u201cno\u201d is all that\u2019s needed for Question #3.<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

4) How many total sales will there be in 2025? (point scored if guess is +\/- 4%)<\/h3>\n

We\u2019re going to use a 5% band for this one since the volatility on sales has been significant over the last few years.<\/p>\n

A refresher:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

So if there are 80,000 sales in 2025, you get a point so long as your guess is between 76,800 and 83,200.<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

5) Which month<\/em> of the year will represent the highest number of total sales? (point scored for correct month)<\/h3>\n

I\u2019m not offering you a matrix for this one.<\/p>\n

You\u2019ll have to put your thinking cap on.<\/p>\n

Are sales usually highest in the spring?\u00a0 Summer?\u00a0 Fall?<\/p>\n

You decide\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

6) Will any individual month of the year see more than 8,000 sales? (point scored for correct Y\/N)<\/h3>\n

How many sales is 8,000 sales?<\/p>\n

Is it a lot?\u00a0 A little?<\/p>\n

Well, just consider the year 2001 for a moment\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In 2001,\u00a0every\u00a0<\/em>month outside of those \u201cbookends\u201d in January and December saw over 8,000 sales.<\/p>\n

So it\u2019s common, right?<\/p>\n

Um, maybe it\u00a0was<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Consider the year 2024 for a moment\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Last year, not a single month saw over 8,000 sales.<\/p>\n

In fact, we haven\u2019t seen 8,000+ sales in a month since May of 2023, and in 2022, we only saw 8,000+ sales in February and March.<\/p>\n

So will we see 8,000 sales in\u00a0any<\/em> month in 2025?<\/p>\n

Y\/N<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

7) How many total new listings will there be in 2025? (point scored if guess is +\/- 5%).<\/h3>\n

If you have\u00a0any\u00a0<\/em>idea how to answer this one, you\u2019re a total nerd.<\/p>\n

This question is the largest \u201cshot in the dark\u201d in our contest, but I wanted to include something about\u00a0inventory levels<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a refresher form the past ten years:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

I\u2019m keeping the range low at 5.0% because I feel that this is actually an easy one.\u00a0 But I won\u2019t say why\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

8) How many individual months will see more than 20,000 active<\/em> listings (point scored for correct number)<\/h3>\n

A second question about\u00a0inventory<\/em>, if you please.<\/p>\n

20,000 is the number, in my mind, that refers to a \u201clot\u201d of active listings.<\/p>\n

\u201cNew listings\u201d are an important measure of the market.\u00a0 They refer to the overall inventory levels.\u00a0 But \u201cactive listings\u201d refer to the number of properties on the market at month\u2019s end, which speaks to the\u00a0absorption rate<\/em>.\u00a0 So rather than bore you with a question about the absorption rate, I\u2019ll provide you with the following\u2026<\/p>\n

In 2024, May through November saw 20,000+ active listings.\u00a0 That\u2019s\u00a0seven straight months.<\/em><\/p>\n

This used to be very common!<\/p>\n

In 2004, there were\u00a0eight<\/em> straight months with 20,000+ active listings.<\/p>\n

There were 9 straight months in 2005, 2006, and 2008.<\/p>\n

But that changed significantly in recent years.<\/p>\n

In fact, in 2023 there were\u00a0zero\u00a0<\/em>months with 20,000+ active listings, let alone\u00a0consecutive<\/em> months.<\/p>\n

Zero in 2022.<\/p>\n

Zero in 2021.<\/p>\n

Zero in 2020.<\/p>\n

In fact, before we saw\u00a0seven<\/em> months in 2024 with 20,000+ active listings, you have to go all the way back to May of 2019.<\/p>\n

So how many months in 2025 will see 20,000+ active listings?<\/p>\n

Place your bets!<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

9) Will any individual month of the year see an average GTA condo price higher than the \u2018peak\u2019 price of $767,064 recorded in May of 2024? (point scored for correct Y\/N)<\/h3>\n

Quite simple.<\/p>\n

Do you have faith in the GTA condo market?<\/p>\n

The \u2018peak\u2019 all-time price was $831,531 in March of 2022.\u00a0 Last year\u2019s peak came in May at $767,064.\u00a0 The peak in 2022 was\u00a0also<\/em> in May and that was $784,914.<\/p>\n

Will we see any individual month in 2025 with an average condo price above $767,064?<\/p>\n

Y\/N<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

10) What will the Bank of Canada policy rate be after the last announcement on December 10th, 2025?) (point scored for correct number)<\/h3>\n

Our trough was 0.25% during COVID.<\/p>\n

Our peak was 5.00% into mid-2024.<\/p>\n

We currently sit at 3.00% after the rate cut on January 29th.<\/p>\n

What will the rate be at the end of 2025?<\/p>\n

1.75%
2.00%
2.25%
2.50%
2.75%
3.00%
3.25%<\/p>\n

Or if you\u2019re really crazy, a figure that\u2019s lower\/higher than one posted above\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

Alright, folks!<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a wrap.<\/p>\n

While maybe\u00a0some\u00a0<\/em>of you might find this overwhelming, I think many of you will prefer this to the simplicity of last year\u2019s game.<\/p>\n

Please post your answers in the comments section below and I\u2019ll download and keep track throughout the year.<\/p>\n

To avoid scrolling up\/down when compiling, here\u2019s something you can copy-and-paste to print or save to your desktop:<\/p>\n\n

1) What will be the average home price for 2025? (point scored if guess is +\/- 2%)
2) Which\u00a0month<\/em> of the year will represent the highest average home price? (point scored for correct month)
3) Will any individual month\u2019s average home price top $1,200,000? (point scored for correct Y\/N)
4) How many total sales will there be in 2025? (point scored if guess is +\/- 5%)
5) Which month<\/em> of the year will represent the highest number of total sales? (point scored for correct month)
6) Will any individual month of the year see more than 8,000 sales? (point scored for correct Y\/N)
7) How many total new listings will there be in 2025? (point stored if guess is +\/- 10%).
8) How many individual months will see more than 20,000 new listings (point scored for correct number)
9) Will any individual month of the year see an average GTA condo price higher than the \u2018peak\u2019 price of $767,064 recorded in May of 2024? (point scored for correct Y\/N)
10) What will the Bank of Canada policy rate be after the last announcement on December 10th, 2025?) (point scored for correct number)<\/p>\n\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Happy Monday, folks! And an early \u2018thanks\u2019 for playing\u2026<\/p>\n