{"id":67595,"date":"2025-02-04T09:41:47","date_gmt":"2025-02-04T09:41:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/rutherford-darwin-portfolio-review-31-january-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-02-04T09:41:47","modified_gmt":"2025-02-04T09:41:47","slug":"rutherford-darwin-portfolio-review-31-january-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=67595","title":{"rendered":"Rutherford-Darwin Portfolio Review: 31 January 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"


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\"Rutherford-Darwin<\/p>\n

Piper, \u201cPiping\u201d \u2013 Edinburgh, Scotland<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

DeepSeek attempted to take US Equities (specifically tech stocks) to the Deep Six on Monday \u2013 but markets recovered mid week only to show weakness again on Friday:<\/p>\n

\"Rutherford-DarwinOverall, the SPX (S&P 500 Index) was down ~1% over last Friday\u2019s close. However, we remain in a sideways consolidation zone well within the dominant uptrend channel that started last April.<\/p>\n

In terms of performance relative to other major asset classes:<\/p>\n

\"Rutherford-DarwinUS Equities came out in the middle of the pack with Silver (SLV) leading the way and Crypto (IBIT) being the biggest loser. Volatility increased significantly throughout the week (hence the negative performance of the inverse volatility fund SLVY).<\/p>\n

So, we\u2019ll take a look at the impact of all this action on the performance of the Rutherford-Darwin Portfolio.<\/p>\n

Obviously, the $50,000 \u201crisk-free\u201d investment in BIL (Treasury Bills) wasn\u2019t impacted and has generated $179 \u201cincome\u201d over the first month since inception. Dividends will be paid next week that will be offset by a drop in price of BIL.<\/p>\n

The $10,000 \u201cBuy-And-Hold\u201d portion of the portfolio looks like this:<\/p>\n

\"Rutherford-Darwinwith only modest movement and a small loss (\n<\/p>\n

The Options portion of the portfolio had a predictable rougher ride:<\/p>\n

\"Rutherford-Darwinalthough still managing to hold losses to 7.7% (0.85% total portfolio value) despite the ~10:1 leverage. (Annualized) Volatility in this portion of the portfolio is now at a scary ~122% (although, again, not a particularly reliable number after only 1 month of data).<\/p>\n

Putting it all together the total picture looks like this:<\/p>\n

\"Rutherford-Darwinwith the total portfolio showing a respectable 14.6% volatility \u2013 although with negative returns to date.<\/p>\n

As we have seen (and would expect) the Option portion of the portfolio has the highest volatility (and potential risk\/reward) and I shall be refining my \u201crules\u201d for managing this portion of the portfolio going forward now that I have established that this can be managed within the $10,000 allocation limits. I started out by allocating (nearly) all available funds to ensure this could be done within the funding limits. Now I need to be more selective in choosing the assets that I feel may move more than others and will \u201ctrend\u201d rather than \u201cconsolidate\u201d for significant lengths of time (> 1 month). My initial purchases were made with ~45 days to expiration and these are now down to ~21 days. At this point (i.e. after ~1 month) I would like to either:<\/p>\n

a) Roll the Options out another month in time if I am still Bullish (with Calls) or Bearish (with Puts) on the underlying. If possible I will also move the strikes up\/down appropriately to take money off the table and\/or reduce risk; or<\/p>\n

b) Close the position if I am \u201cneutral\u201d on the direction of the future movements.<\/p>\n

On Friday, I closed my bullish position in USO (Oil) \u2013 i.e. sold my Call Options \u2013 as I am now \u201cneutral\u201d on Oil. This started out as the best performer for a couple of weeks (generating the peak in the brown line in above screenshot) but has pulled back significantly since Trump\u2019s inauguration and is now back to where we started. Longer term, I am still bullish but will look for confirmation of a bounce from here before re-entering.<\/p>\n

Here are my current \u201copinions\u201d on potential behavior now and going forward:<\/p>\n

\"Rutherford-DarwinI am focussing primarily on Weekly charts for my decisions but may choose daily charts to \u201ctime\u201d entries. My longer term views are based on Monthly charts (and may be a little slow to react to changes in the investment environment).<\/p>\n

At the moment I am reasonably comfortable with positions in SPY\/SPLG, SLV and IBIT (despite a disappointing start) that are consistent over all time frames. EFA, EEM, USO and VNQ are all close to moving towards my longer term views with positive indicators in 2 time frames (but not the third). TMF is \u201ciffy\u201d and SVXY I will probably only go long (Buy Calls) as\/if volatility settles down \u2013 it is difficult for an \u201cinvestor\u201d \u2013 i.e. someone checking charts\/data less frequently than weekly \u2013 to catch \u201cvolatility spikes\u201d and take advantage.<\/p>\n

BTW \u2013 I am presently looking at AI (DeepSeek \ud83d\ude42 ) to see if I can find a way to use it to make decisions. I am a long way from getting to that point \u2013 but it\u2019s potentially an interesting tool to use in some way \u2013 not necessarily directly \u2013 to help make investment decisions.<\/p>\n

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Piper, \u201cPiping\u201d \u2013 Edinburgh, Scotland DeepSeek attempted to take US Equities (specifically tech stocks) to the Deep Six on Monday \u2013 but markets recovered mid week only to show weakness again on Friday: Overall, the SPX (S&P 500 Index) was down ~1% over last Friday\u2019s close. However, we remain in a sideways consolidation zone well […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":67596,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[3805,9162,3749,18706],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-67595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-january","tag-portfolio","tag-review","tag-rutherforddarwin"],"yoast_head":"\nRutherford-Darwin Portfolio Review: 31 January 2025 - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=67595\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rutherford-Darwin Portfolio Review: 31 January 2025 - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Piper, \u201cPiping\u201d \u2013 Edinburgh, Scotland DeepSeek attempted to take US Equities (specifically tech stocks) to the Deep Six on Monday \u2013 but markets recovered mid week only to show weakness again on Friday: Overall, the SPX (S&P 500 Index) was down ~1% over last Friday\u2019s close. 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