{"id":66982,"date":"2025-02-04T01:38:01","date_gmt":"2025-02-04T01:38:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/stock-market-outlook-february-2-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-02-04T01:38:01","modified_gmt":"2025-02-04T01:38:01","slug":"stock-market-outlook-february-2-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=66982","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 February 2 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 2nd = <span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ADX Directional Indicators:\u00a0<strong><span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): <strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600\">Mixed<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>On Balance Volume Indicator: <strong><span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/span><br \/>The stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, despite potentially bearish developments last week.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/schrts.co\/MAZBdHHC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P500 ( <em>$SPX<\/em> )<\/a> fell 1% last week.\u00a0 The index is ~1% above the 50-day moving average and ~7% above the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8658\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8658\" data-attachment-id=\"8658\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/02\/02\/stock-market-outlook-february-2-2025\/2025-02-02-spx_trendline_analysis-daily\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png\" data-orig-size=\"1329,990\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-02-02-SPX_Trendline_Analysis-Daily\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Stock chart with trendlines, volume, ADX, and OBV for daily SPX prices&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for Feb 02 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8658\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" alt=\"Technical analysis of daily SPX prices\" width=\"640\" height=\"477\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8658\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for Feb 02 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The ADX flip flopped early last week thanks to high volatility.\u00a0 Institutional activity racked up another 2 days of high volume selling, taking the total to 7 and moving the signal to mixed.\u00a0 2 days are set to leave the count early this week (potential positive), but the 50-day moving average is close at hand (potential negative).<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8660\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8660\" data-attachment-id=\"8660\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/02\/02\/stock-market-outlook-february-2-2025\/2025-02-02-sector_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-sector_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"1327,949\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-02-02-Sector_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each S&amp;P500 Sector ETF&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 05 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8660\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance of S&amp;P500 sector ETFs\" width=\"640\" height=\"458\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8660\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 05 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Communications <em>(\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xlc\">$XLC<\/a> )<\/em> led the way for a second week, while it was a tough week for Energy <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xlk\">$XLE<\/a> )<\/em> and Technology\u00a0 <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xlk\">$XLK<\/a> )<\/em> sectors.\u00a0 Energy fell back to a Bearish bias, along with Technology.\u00a0 Utilities downshifted to Neutral.\u00a0 Energy remains oversold, and Communications remains overbought.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8665\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8665\" data-attachment-id=\"8665\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/02\/02\/stock-market-outlook-february-2-2025\/2025-02-02-style_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-style_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"1321,956\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-02-02-Style_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each investing style&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Sector Style Performance for Week 05 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-style_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8665\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by sector style\" width=\"640\" height=\"463\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8665\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sector Style Performance for Week 05 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Low Beta equities were the best sector style last week, and upshifted to a neutral bias; Momentum stocks were the worst.\u00a0 A few more bias changes to note:\u00a0 High Beta, Mid Cap Growth, and Defensive downshifted to Neutral, while Small Cap Growth moved to bearish.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8662\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8662\" data-attachment-id=\"8662\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/02\/02\/stock-market-outlook-february-2-2025\/2025-02-02-asset_class_performance\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-asset_class_performance.png\" data-orig-size=\"1327,704\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-02-02-Asset_Class_Performance\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each asset class&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Asset Class Performance for Week 05 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-asset_class_performance.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-asset_class_performance.png?w=640\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8662\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/2025-02-02-asset_class_performance.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by asset class\" width=\"640\" height=\"340\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8662\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Asset Class Performance for Week 05 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Bitcoin <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ishares.com\/us\/products\/333011\/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf\">$IBIT<\/a> )<\/em> was the worst performer last week, while Gold <em>( $GLD )<\/em> and the U.S. Dollar outperformed.\u00a0 Bonds shifted to a neutral bias.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>COMMENTARY<\/strong><\/span><br \/>Last week was quite a year. FOMC kept rates unchanged, pausing the rate-cutting cycle they started in September.\u00a0 They cited rationale including: solid economic activity, stabilized unemployment, and \u201csomewhat elevated\u201d inflation.<\/p>\n<p>The advanced (1st) GDP estimate for 2024 Q4 came in lower than expected (2.3% vs 2.6% expected), which is down almost a full percent from 2023 Q4.\u00a0 Not recession territory, but still slowing growth.<\/p>\n<p>PCE was up 20 basis points year over year; core was flat and hasn\u2019t changed since October.<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse;width: AUTO\" border=\"1\" width=\"AUTO\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"7\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td><strong>PCE (y\/y)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Actual<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Prior<br \/><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Expected<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Headline<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.6%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.4%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.6%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Core<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.8%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.8%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.9%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Most impactful to Monday\u2019s open are President Trump\u2019s tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Per the executive orders, effective February 4, 2025, the United States will impose a:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>25% tariff generally on all imports from Mexico<\/li>\n<li>25% tariff generally on all imports from Canada, except for \u201cenergy resources\u201d which have a 10% tariff<\/li>\n<li>10% tariff on all imports from China<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>All three countries announced retaliatory measures are in the works.<\/p>\n<p>On Friday, Reuters posted an article about a possible delay for tariffs, which sent equities higher during the morning. However, the White House shot down that story midday, and the indexes sold-off hard from there.\u00a0 Many investors are looking to Monday, hoping for a reverse \u201cbuy the rumor, sell the news\u201d effect.<\/p>\n<p>As always: we cannot predict, we can only prepare.\u00a0 You\u2019ve probably noticed a lot of whipsaws your the signals going back to early December, which means it\u2019s been a traders market (rather than a buy and hold or long-term allocator investor).\u00a0 Last week was no different, and Monday will probably be more of the same.\u00a0 Futures just opened and the indexes are down ~1.5%.<\/p>\n<p>Protect your capital, keep your losses small, and deploy capital when probabilities are in your favor (oversold in bullish trends).<\/p>\n<p>Best to Your Week!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><em>P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.<br \/>If you don\u2019t, tell an enemy.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h6>Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/h6>\n<hr\/>\n<h6>Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.\u00a0 Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.<\/h6>\n<h6>Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.<\/h6>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 2nd = Uptrend ADX Directional Indicators:\u00a0Uptrend Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): Mixed On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, despite potentially bearish developments last week. The S&amp;P500 ( $SPX ) fell 1% last week.\u00a0 The index is ~1% above the 50-day [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":66983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[3843,11209,12752,3310],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-66982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-february","tag-market","tag-outlook","tag-stock"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Stock Market Outlook \u2013 February 2 2025 - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=66982\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 February 2 2025 - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of February 2nd = Uptrend ADX Directional Indicators:\u00a0Uptrend Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): Mixed On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook remains in an uptrend, despite potentially bearish developments last week. 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