{"id":64766,"date":"2025-02-02T18:53:51","date_gmt":"2025-02-02T18:53:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/accounting\/economic-review-november-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-02-02T18:53:51","modified_gmt":"2025-02-02T18:53:51","slug":"economic-review-november-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=64766","title":{"rendered":"Economic Review November 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Interested in keeping up to date with the latest economic performance information impacting businesses and households in the UK? This month\u2019s economic review focuses on the developments that arose in November 2024. Keep reading for more information.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A more gradual decline in interest rates is anticipated<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The Bank of England<\/a><\/strong> (BoE) lowered interest rates last month for just the second time since 2020, but it cautioned that future cuts would probably be more gradual because of the possibility of inflation rising next year.<\/p>\n

The BoE\u2019s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by an 8-1 majority to lower rates by 0.25 percentage points at its most recent meeting, which ended on November 6. As a result, the bank rate dropped to 4.75%.<\/p>\n

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement following the news announcement that rates will probably \u201ccontinue to fall gradually from here,\u201d<\/em> although he did issue a warning that they wouldn\u2019t be lowered \u201ctoo quickly or by too much.\u201d <\/em>Mr. Bailey also made a point of highlighting the phrase \u201cgradual,\u201d<\/em> adding that \u201cthere are a lot of risks out there in the world at large and also domestically\u201d<\/em> as the rationale for such an approach.<\/p>\n

The Governor also released the BoE\u2019s most recent economic estimate, which incorporates the Chancellor\u2019s Budget measures<\/a><\/strong>, in conjunction with the rate announcement. According to the updated predictions, the initiatives outlined in the Budget are expected to delay the return of inflation to the Bank\u2019s goal level of 2% by one year and increase the headline rate of inflation by over half a percentage point at its peak in just over two years.<\/p>\n

Two weeks following the MPC announcement, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the most recent inflation data<\/a><\/strong>, which showed that the annual headline rate increased from 1.7% in September to 2.3% in October. Although the October increase in energy prices was a major factor in this steep rise, the number did came in marginally higher than analysts had predicted. The Governor\u2019s remarks and this overshoot have surely raised the likelihood that interest rates will stay the same after the MPC\u2019s year-end meeting on December 19.<\/p>\n

The UK economy is stalling<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The economy barely expanded between July and September, according to the ONS\u2019s gross domestic product (GDP) figures released last month. However, more recent survey data indicates that the economy is losing speed.<\/p>\n

According to the most recent GDP data, the UK\u2019s economic output increased by a meagre 0.1% during the third quarter. This number reflects a significant deceleration from the 0.5% growth rate reported during the second quarter of the year and was lower than experts had predicted.<\/p>\n

The economy really shrank by 0.1% in September alone<\/a><\/strong>, according to a monthly analysis of the data. The ONS reported a sharp decline in manufacturing output while the services sector stagnated. Many economists attributed September\u2019s weakness to budget uncertainty, which they believed affected how families and businesses behaved.<\/p>\n

Additionally, data from a newly published economic poll indicates that company optimism declined further in the weeks after the October Budget. In fact, for the first time in 13 months, the S&P Global\/CIPS UK Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI) flash headline growth indicator dropped below the 50 mark, indicating a decrease in private sector output, from 51.8 in October to 49.9 in November.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is depressing to read the first survey on the state of the economy following the Budget,\u201d<\/em> said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Even though it is very little, the output decline contrasts sharply with the strong growth rates observed over the summer and is followed by growing anxiety about the year\u2019s prospects<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The BoE also released updated forecasts for economic growth last month. The Bank is now projecting a stronger 2025, with next year\u2019s expected growth figure increased to 1.5% from a previous projection of 1.0%, even though it did reduce this year\u2019s forecast from 1.25% to 1.0%.<\/p>\n

Markets (TOMD-compiled data)<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Investors kept a tight eye on the ongoing political unrest in France and the prospect of potential US tariffs at the end of November. The FTSE 100 was flat on the final trading day of the month, but European markets ended the day little higher as inflation projections were in line with predictions. On the other side of the Atlantic, US equities moderated from their all-time highs earlier in the week.<\/p>\n

The FTSE 250<\/a> <\/strong>index ended November 1.88% higher at 20,771.57, while the FTSE 100 index ended the month at 8,287.30, up 2.18%. The FTSE AIM ended the month at 732.49, down 0.63%. At 4,804.40 at the end of November, the Euro Stoxx 50 was down 0.48%. The Nikkei 225 in Japan ended the month at 38,208.03, a 2.23% monthly loss.<\/p>\n

With worries that his plans would spread to other areas, US President-elect Donald Trump has laid out intentions to impose tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico. The tech-focused NASDAQ<\/a><\/strong> ended November up 6.21% on 19,218.17, while the Dow Jones ended the month up 7.54% on 44,910.65.<\/p>\n

The euro ended the month at \u20ac1.20 versus pound on the foreign currency market. The US dollar ended the day at $1.05 versus the euro and $1.26 versus sterling.<\/p>\n

November saw a 5.40% decline in Brent crude prices, closing at about $68 per barrel. As OPEC+\u2019s production plans were the subject of increased speculation ahead of their December meeting, oil prices fluctuated at the end of the month. With a monthly loss of 1.84%, gold ended the month trading at about $2,683 per troy ounce.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Index<\/strong><\/td>\nValue (29\/11\/2024)<\/strong><\/td>\nMovement Since 31\/10\/2024<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FTSE 100<\/strong><\/td>\n8,287.30<\/td>\n+2.18%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FTSE 250<\/strong><\/td>\n20,771.57<\/td>\n+1.88%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FTSE AIM<\/strong><\/td>\n732.49<\/td>\n-0.63%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/td>\n4,804.40<\/td>\n-0.48%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NASDAQ Composite<\/strong><\/td>\n19,218.17<\/td>\n+6.21%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dow Jones<\/strong><\/td>\n44,910.65<\/td>\n+7.54%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nikkei 225<\/strong><\/td>\n38,208.03<\/td>\n-2.23%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The unemployment rate increases<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Although the ONS has cautioned that the statistics should be interpreted cautiously because of the increased volatility of smaller survey sample sizes, official figures released last month showed an increase in the jobless rate.<\/p>\n

According to the most recent ONS labour market report, the unemployment rate was 4.3% from July to September 2024, down from 4.0% during the preceding three months. In the three months leading up to September, the number of payrolled employees fell by 9,000<\/a><\/strong>, according to the data, and preliminary projections indicate that the number fell by a further 5,000 in October.<\/p>\n

Additionally, there were 35,000 fewer job openings during the August\u2013October<\/a><\/strong> period than during the preceding three months. Overall, the most recent set of data indicates a \u201ccontinued easing of the labour market,\u201d<\/em> according to the statistics office.<\/p>\n

The Resolution Foundation published a study last month that brought attention to the existing issues with data dependability, and ONS is currently working to update the statistical technique used to determine its labour market estimates. The think tank\u2019s research of tax office, self-employment, and new population data suggests that up to a million people who are thought to be employed are now not included in the official numbers.<\/p>\n

The decline in retail sales is more than anticipated<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In addition to more recent poll data suggesting \u201cdisappointing\u201d <\/em>sales in November, the most recent official retail sales figures revealed a fall in sales volumes ahead of the October budget.<\/p>\n

Following a period of expansion over the preceding three months, retail sales volumes declined by 0.7% in October, according to figures issued by ONS last month. Although analysts had anticipated a reduction in sales, October\u2019s drop was more significant than anticipated. Although the ONS stated that a \u201cnotably poor month for clothing stores\u201d<\/em> was the main cause of the decline, it also pointed out that businesses everywhere reported that customers were delaying purchases until after the budget.<\/p>\n

However, the retail industry does have some hope thanks to data from GfK\u2019s most recent consumer confidence index, which shows a decrease in pessimism following the Budget. With rise observed in all five survey components, the headline figure for November reached its highest level since August, indicating that consumers may be more willing to spend in the lead-up to Christmas.<\/p>\n

However, retailers anticipate that market conditions will continue to be difficult, according to the CBI Distributive Trades Survey conducted in November. Although there has been \u201csome improvement\u201d<\/em> in the retail climate since the middle of the year, the poll also noted \u201cdisappointing sales\u201d<\/em> in November and predicted that volumes will continue to fall short of seasonal averages in December.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

All details are correct at the time of writing. It is important to take professional advice before making any decision relating to your personal finances. Information within this article can be subject to change without notice, and the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed. It does not provide individual tailored investment advice and is for guidance only. Some rules may vary in different parts of the UK.<\/em><\/p>\n

Churchill Knight Umbrella is partnered with a wealth management specialist<\/a><\/strong>, and all our umbrella employees are entitled to a free consultation to discuss their personal finances. If you are currently using Churchill Knight Umbrella for your PAYE payroll, please click here<\/a><\/strong> for more information. There is no obligation to use the services of our wealth management partner after concluding your free consultation<\/a><\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Interested in keeping up to date with the latest economic performance information impacting businesses and households in the UK? This month\u2019s economic review focuses on the developments that arose in November 2024. Keep reading for more information. 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