{"id":54903,"date":"2025-01-29T06:26:44","date_gmt":"2025-01-29T06:26:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/finance\/vanguard-10-year-stock-market-forecasts-2025-2035-retrospective-my-money-blog\/"},"modified":"2025-01-29T06:26:44","modified_gmt":"2025-01-29T06:26:44","slug":"vanguard-10-year-stock-market-forecasts-2025-2035-retrospective-my-money-blog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=54903","title":{"rendered":"Vanguard 10-Year Stock Market Forecasts 2025-2035 (+Retrospective) \u2014 My Money Blog"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Vanguard recently released their most recent <a href=\"https:\/\/corporate.vanguard.com\/content\/corporatesite\/us\/en\/corp\/vemo\/vemo-return-forecasts.html\" target=\"_blank\">annual 10-year forecast<\/a> as of mid-November 2024 (effectively the beginning of 2025).  The beginning of the year is the time for forecasts, and that also makes it a good time to remind ourselves how badly they can be wrong and how you shouldn\u2019t really use them for anything.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s look back at how those same forecasts performed from 2011-2021, with confidence ranges within the 25th and 75th percentiles.  I have some old images saved from when Vanguard gave us an update in 2021.  <\/p>\n<p><strong>For US Stocks between 2011-2021, their forecast in 2011 was roughly between 6% and 12% annually for US stocks, for a median around 9%.   That a wide band!   The actual return?  13.4%.<\/strong>  As of early 2025, we are still outside their confidence bands.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mymoneyblog.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/vg_predictoff3.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"720\" height=\"434\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-69980\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>For Global ex-US Stocks between 2011-2021, their forecast in 2011 was roughly between 6% and 11% annually for US stocks, for a median around 8.5%.   The actual return?  4.0%.<\/strong>   As of early 2025, we are still outside their confidence bands here as well.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mymoneyblog.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/vg_predictoff4.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"720\" height=\"422\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-69979\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m not trying to pick on Vanguard here, but they do release these things with a certain degree of seriousness and brand authority.  But honestly, I wish they wouldn\u2019t.  I mean, sooner or later they\u2019ll be correct, but how could you possibly attribute that to skill and not luck?  <\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m going to include a copy of their late 2024 10-year forecasts (close to the start of 2025) here because they usually delete the post after a couple of years.   This way, we can look back again in the future.  For this chart, the ranges are their median forecast with a fixed 2% range of confidence for stocks and 1% range for bonds.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mymoneyblog.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/vgforecast202411a.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"720\" height=\"538\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-82289\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mymoneyblog.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/vgforecast202411b.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"720\" height=\"528\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-82288\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Notably, the 10-year median return forecast is 3.8% for US stocks, 7.9% for Global ex-US stocks, and 4.8% for US total bond.  This table includes their percentile confidence ranges.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mymoneyblog.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/vgforecast202411c.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"720\" height=\"468\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-82290\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This all reminds of me of the old joke: How can you tell economists have a sense of humor? They use decimal points. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Vanguard recently released their most recent annual 10-year forecast as of mid-November 2024 (effectively the beginning of 2025). The beginning of the year is the time for forecasts, and that also makes it a good time to remind ourselves how badly they can be wrong and how you shouldn\u2019t really use them for anything. Let\u2019s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":54904,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[31585,3767,12768,11209,832,31586,3310,11577],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-54903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-10year","tag-blog","tag-forecasts","tag-market","tag-money","tag-retrospective","tag-stock","tag-vanguard"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Vanguard 10-Year Stock Market Forecasts 2025-2035 (+Retrospective) \u2014 My Money Blog - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=54903\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Vanguard 10-Year Stock Market Forecasts 2025-2035 (+Retrospective) \u2014 My Money Blog - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Vanguard recently released their most recent annual 10-year forecast as of mid-November 2024 (effectively the beginning of 2025). 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