{"id":43637,"date":"2025-01-23T20:50:46","date_gmt":"2025-01-23T20:50:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/airbus\/hexcel-earnings-returning-to-pre-pandemic-revenues-ready-for-rate-increases-but-max-remains-a-wild-card\/"},"modified":"2025-01-23T20:50:46","modified_gmt":"2025-01-23T20:50:46","slug":"hexcel-earnings-returning-to-pre-pandemic-revenues-ready-for-rate-increases-but-max-remains-a-wild-card","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=43637","title":{"rendered":"Hexcel Earnings: Returning to Pre-Pandemic Revenues, Ready for Rate Increases, but MAX Remains A Wild Card"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

By Chris Sloan<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>January 23, 2025 \u00a9 Leeham News:\u00a0<\/strong>Composites supplier Hexcel is ready, willing, and able to return to pre-pandemic production, profitability, and revenue benchmarks but can only move as quickly as its OEM clients up the supplier chain.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile OEM production (rates) are increasing, recent history has clearly shown that ramping up aircraft build rates continues to be a challenging process. (OEM) Production levels in 2024 were only 68% of 2018 levels. Hexcel is close to about 80% as compared to 2019 levels,\u201d\u00a0 concedes Hexcel\u2019s Chairman, CEO, and President Tom Gentile.<\/p>\n

Though the company forecasts its core commercial aviation aerospace sales to advance by high single-digits, the Gentile waves cautionary flags. \u201cBecause of the continued [start, stop, start ] production environment, uncertainty remains in relation to the outlook for our 2025 performance. Sales growth may be impacted by potential delays to the recovery in production rates.\u201d The choppy rates have obvious knock-on effects on revenue and operating leverage \u2013 ultimately weighing down profit margins that will likely need until 2026 or 2027 to recover to pre-pandemic levels. \u201cDaunting\u201d and \u201cMaximum\u201d are words Gentile uses to describe labor, materials, and utilities inflation over the last 3-4 years. Not one to waste a good crisis, Hexcel is pledging to use this to its advantage. \u201cIt gives us time to work on our productivity and future factory initiatives to drive productivity to offset some of the (inflationary environment).\u201d<\/p>\n

The good news\/bad news combination of bullish demand and constrained supply\u2014a refrain common to all of commercial aviation\u2014echoes through the halls of Hexcel.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Shipset Status: <\/strong>Program by Program Updates Offer Clues To OEM Rates<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Hexcel is well positioned as the shift to composites and next generation materials, continues its unabated march forward. A350 and 787 generate the most revenue and production, obviously due to their sheer fuselage size and greater use of composites. But, the narrow-body programs hold their own with volume. The uneven production rate curve is causing consternation in the program production rate updates from Hexcel. With OEM\u2019s guiding production rate increases, stability continues to bedevil every airframe model line and their suppliers, none more so than the MAX.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cHeading into 4Q results, we were expecting a mulligan quarter from Hexcel due to Boeing\u2019s strike from mid-September to early November. The timing and duration of the strike created an overhang and set up difficult comps for 1H25 as Boeing ramps up production. Hexcel\u2019s results were respectable given the challenging operating environment. On the earnings call, management noted that the only Boeing and Airbus commercial aero programs that drove y\/y sales growth for Hexcel this quarter were Airbus\u2019 A320neo and Boeing\u2019s 787 \u2013 which was not impacted by the strike,\u201d said a Melius Research Report.<\/p>\n

MAX Wild Card<\/strong><\/h3>\n

For the 2025 modeling, Hexcel is building in low 30s as an average aircraft per month (APM) for the [whole] year. \u201cThe reason for that is, Boeing has said publicly they want to get back up to 38, they\u2019ve got some aircraft that they\u2019re going to deliver that are out of inventory, so the production rates may be lower. We are taking into account there could be some de-stocking with all the inventories in the system,\u201d Gentile explains. Though the numbers are conservative, Hexcel pledges that they have the capacity in place should demand increase. \u201cBuild rates have been all over, Boeing is going up. But MAX is still a bit of a special situation,\u201d said Gentile, pointing to fluctuating APMs in 2024 from the mid-30s to the low-20s. The hardest call is the MAX coming out of the strike; Boeing is probably in its 20s right now. And it\u2019s really going to be down to how well they can grow that,\u201d added Patrick Winterlich, Chief Financial Officer.<\/p>\n

Boeing\u2019s Luckier 7s<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The carbon fibre-heavy 787, unaffected by the strike, provides much-needed stable production rate relief. Hexcel is sticking to the status quo on the 787, guiding toward 7 APM with the ability to flex\u2013particularly with Boeing\u2019s announcement of a new Dreamliner line in North Charleston. \u201cOur shipset value is between $1m and $2m on it. The expansion, as I understand it, will allow them to go from kind of a historic rate of 7 aircraft per month to high as 12. It would be great for Hexcel, because it\u2019s a good shipset value,\u201d Gentile proclaims. The Triple 7 is sticking to an expected 3-4 APM in 2025.<\/p>\n

Riding The Airbus Wave<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Hexcel asserts the Airbus A320neo shipset rate remained relatively stable though most of 2024 in the mid-50s, dipping slightly to about 50 in Q4. This constitutes 602 units, which was an increase. \u201cFor 2025, we\u2019re really expecting probably low 60s in terms of aircraft per month. So kind of low 700 units in terms of total deliveries,\u201d Gentile prognosticates.<\/p>\n

The A350XWB is Hexcel\u2019s most lucrative platform, generating $4.5m to $5m per shipset. The chief executive says, \u201cWe were pulling at 6.5 to 7 for Q1 to Q3. Q4 was a little bit less \u2014 but as we look at the outlook for \u201925, again, we\u2019re thinking 6 to 7 and mid-80s in terms of total units that range.\u201d Hexcel is more than ready for the recently announced rate escalation. \u201cThey\u2019ve reiterated that they\u2019re still on track for 12 aircraft per month by 2028 so it\u2019s just a question of what\u2019s the ramp curve,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

The A220, with Hexcel content value pegged in the $200,000 to $500,000 range is an emerging growth opportunity, but has a lumpy curve like everything else. \u201cWe were pulling at 10 to 9 for most of the year. It dropped a little bit in Q4. And the outlook for 2025 is we expect to be pulling at about 10 to 11 units per month.\u201d<\/p>\n

The CFO caveats all shipsets that Hexcel is about 4 to 6 months ahead of Airbus\u2019 assembly, so they will always are going to be a little bit higher in terms of the amount of material that supplier ships relative to the planes that the OEM sells.<\/p>\n

The Next Clean Sheet Single-Aisle: Enter Embraer?<\/h3>\n

Gentile isn\u2019t disclosing any conversations he\u2019s had with Embraer over a possible next generation replacement for the Boeing 737 MAX and A320neo.\u201dThere\u2019s certainly plenty of demand for that sort of thing,\u201d he says.\u00a0 Regardless of OEM, long-term growth for Hexcel will come from the launch of next-generation commercial aircraft, and the development of new propulsion systems. \u201cThe decision on identifying what material systems these platforms will utilize are taking place right now and will continue over the next several years with service likely to be after 2030,\u201d he allows.<\/p>\n

Though the company\u2019s current innovation efforts are focused on developing materials for these future platforms, they are equally focused on refining the production process for composites to support the high rate production requirements of next-generation aircraft.<\/p>\n

By The Numbers<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Commercial Aerospace sales reached $278.3m in the fourth quarter of 2024, a 4.6% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The growth was driven by modest gains in Airbus A320neo and Boeing 787 sales. However, the Boeing 737 MAX sales were lower year-over-year, primarily reflecting LEAP 1-B and nacelle sales during the quarter. Other areas of Commercial Aerospace experienced growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, led by strong performance in regional jets. The commercial aerospace market represented approximately 59% of total fourth-quarter sales of $473.8 million.<\/p>\n

Hexcel\u2019s overall sales for the full year of 2024 totaled $1.9bn, representing a 6.4% increase from $1.7 billion in 2023. Commercial Aerospace sales, which account for 63% of the company\u2019s total revenue, reached $1.194bn, an 11.9% increase compared to 2023. This growth was driven by strong performance in widebody aircraft, including the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350, followed by gains from the Airbus A320neo. Sales of the Boeing 737 MAX declined year-over-year. Other Commercial Aerospace sales rose 9.5%, reflecting growth in regional jets, with the broader commercial aerospace category increasing 6.7% due to regional jet strength.<\/p>\n

CFO Winterlich attributes much of the revenue growth to \u201cvolume, which is then topped up by some pricing.\u201d<\/p>\n

Related<\/em><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n

\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Chris Sloan January 23, 2025 \u00a9 Leeham News:\u00a0Composites supplier Hexcel is ready, willing, and able to return to pre-pandemic production, profitability, and revenue benchmarks but can only move as quickly as its OEM clients up the supplier chain. \u201cWhile OEM production (rates) are increasing, recent history has clearly shown that ramping up aircraft build […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43638,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12027],"tags":[236,12829,11190,22876,1750,26975,1485,11556,14113,23055,18426,5701],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-43637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-airbus","tag-card","tag-earnings","tag-hexcel","tag-increases","tag-max","tag-prepandemic","tag-rate","tag-ready","tag-remains","tag-returning","tag-revenues","tag-wild"],"yoast_head":"\nHexcel Earnings: Returning to Pre-Pandemic Revenues, Ready for Rate Increases, but MAX Remains A Wild Card - 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