\n Smart Bidding Is Really Speed x Signal Bidding <\/h2>\n
What is your take on Google\u2019s Smart Bidding? It\u2019s a make-or-break question we ask every Google Ads applicant and one that more and more clients are asking Agencies. The answer <\/span>should be<\/span><\/i> very much the same; it isn\u2019t perfect, but it\u2019s worth it (testing at least).\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n To some, it\u2019s a controversial and even personal question\u2014a conversation starter that can have radical responses. Some take it as undermining their experience to imply artificial intelligence could be more efficient. It can elicit survival instincts\u2026 my job is to bid, if no more bidding, no more job, no more food, no more life.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n What we\u2019ve come to find with new products is there is no one right answer, but there is one right stance and that is one of objectivity. What I mean by that is, there is not a universal truth that Smart Bidding is better than Manual or that Broad Match is better than Phrase Match. But to discover progress requires an open mind that it can exist, that one doesn\u2019t simply have it all figured out for eternity. One may have it figured out to the best of their ability now, but the humility that it requires to say one\u2019s abilities do not defy space and time\u00a0 is oddly polarizing. An interest in achieving the best results as opposed to being the best result, and compounded, that decision over time, over and over again, typically results in superior performance, happier clients, and sought-after talent.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The fact is, even if you were a modern-day Albert Einstein, you couldn\u2019t beat Smart Bidding. Why? It\u2019s not a measure of intelligence or even seasoned intuition; it\u2019s much more black-and-white. It\u2019s about signals + speed, which is why we need to embrace it.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Google\u2019s Machine Learning can analyze 70 million signals (and growing)\u00a0 in 100 milliseconds. \ud83e\udd2f <\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Scientists at Google say that they have achieved quantum supremacy, a long-awaited milestone in quantum computing. Google in Mountain View, California, says that its quantum computer carried out a specific calculation that is beyond the practical capabilities of regular, \u2018classical\u2019 machines1<\/a><\/sup>. The same calculation would take even the best classical supercomputer 10,000 years<\/strong> to complete, Google estimates. \u2013 Nature.com\u00a0<\/a><\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Although you have hundreds of data points available in the interface, you can only bid or add bid adjustments on a handful and definitely don\u2019t have it on an individual user level. Sure, you can see how devices and demographics have performed as an aggregate in the context of campaigns, ad groups, keywords, and general ads. But you can\u2019t bid per person based on their unique probability of converting and certainly not per auction for a given person. <\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n And even what you do have, you don\u2019t have it all that fast.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Even if you were a superhuman octopus with 8 arms and could memorize the bid ranges and historical performance for the hundreds or thousands of keywords in your account\u2014let\u2019s pretend that is possible for a minute\u2014with four mice, four keyboards, and a quantum computer\u2026 the medium for which you must bid through, the browser interface is not real-time. <\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n If you read further about<\/span> Google\u2019s data freshness<\/span><\/a>, you\u2019ll find it\u2019s not all that fresh at all. On the surface, it reads like you\u2019ll be lucky if impressions + clicks are within 3 hours of real-time, but if you\u2019re using any of the preferred non-last-click attribution models, it could be more like 15 hours for conversion data. <\/span><\/p>\n That\u2019s why Google\u2019s Machine Learning will typically win whatever specific metric you are testing it on. These data-rich signals are informed by Google\u2019s access to (at least) 7 different properties, each with 1+ billion users. These include Google, Gmail, YouTube, analytics, android, Google Maps, and Chrome. All this to say, the machine is fed by incomprehensible amounts of data being processed in microseconds. It is the only way to effectively handle infinite permutations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n However, it also has tunnel vision. If you ask it to optimize toward a target CPA, it will do just that, with little regard for your ROAS. And vice versa, don\u2019t expect a reasonable CPA if you ask it to focus on ROAS.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The concept of algorithms used to be really abstract to me, until I watched<\/span> a documentary<\/span><\/a> that described what they are and engrained this visual concept in my head of these sorting algorithms.<\/span><\/p>\n In the context of Google Ads, it\u2019s less about \u201csorting\u201d by bid, which is why bidding by a keyword + match type is less important these days. Instead, it\u2019s about sorting by probability. And to calculate that probability, you need a lot more data than you have available, and you need to analyze it in real-time\u2026 like between the time it takes to hit \u201csearch\u201d and the results rendered.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n In every algorithm shown, the sort doesn\u2019t just happen perfectly or instantaneously. No matter what, it takes time. There is a \u201clearning phase\u201d to achieve the best result, and it doesn\u2019t happen on the first go but through some trial + error. Eventually, math prevails, and the goal is achieved. The same concepts hold true for Smart Bidding algorithms.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Where human experience comes in here is not too dissimilar to where humans thought their value was previously. With Smart Bidding, you still identify target \u201cbids\u201d (on CPA or ROAS). But, instead of at a keyword level w\/ adjustments you do so at an ad group level. You are still only as successful as the performance you achieve, with the campaigns you\u2019ve built, producing the results you\u2019ve optimized for. Your experience is only as diverse as your mind is open. In fact, nothing really changed at all except for maybe the perception shifted from one that sees a Paid Search manager as a bidding octopus buying clicks all day to a\u2026 gasp\u2026 performance partner?\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n So in the spirit of performance partnership, we\u2019ve identified some key pillars we\u2019ve experienced to be true to ensure a productive test + launch and hopefully save you a ton of trial and error.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n As we always harp on, there is no universal answer. However, we\u2019ve found success more often with Smart Bidding when following the above guidelines. But, the most important point to progress is to approach with a critical, but open mind.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n You can hear more about these concepts on<\/span> a webinar I joined recently hosted by <\/span>ServiceTitan<\/b><\/a>. If you have any questions or comments, as always, hit me up at brianna@adleverage.com.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\nThe red flag \ud83d\udea9 is always the implication that someone is \u201csmarter than Google\u201d<\/span><\/h3>\n
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![\"Real](\"https:\/\/adleverage.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Screen-Shot-2022-09-26-at-8.47.26-PM.png\")
<\/p>\nGoogle\u2019s Machine Learning will almost always win\u2014but guide it in the right direction<\/span><\/h3>\n
Those key Smart Bidding pillars of success are:<\/b><\/h3>\n
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