{"id":41304,"date":"2025-01-22T13:46:36","date_gmt":"2025-01-22T13:46:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/stock-market-outlook-january-19-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-01-22T13:46:36","modified_gmt":"2025-01-22T13:46:36","slug":"stock-market-outlook-january-19-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=41304","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 January 19 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 19th= <span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ADX Directional Indicators: <span style=\"color: #000000\"><strong>Neutral<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li>Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): <strong><span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<li>On Balance Volume Indicator: <strong><span style=\"color: #008000\">Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/span><br \/>The stock market outlook shifts back to an uptrend, after bouncing from oversold levels into a long weekend.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/schrts.co\/MAZBdHHC\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P500 ( <em>$SPX<\/em> )<\/a> gained 2.9% last week.\u00a0 The index is 0.5% above the 50-day moving average and ~7% above the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8628\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8628\" data-attachment-id=\"8628\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/01\/19\/stock-market-outlook-january-19-2025\/2025-01-19-spx_trendline_analysis-daily\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png\" data-orig-size=\"2921,2176\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-01-19-SPX_Trendline_Analysis-Daily\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Stock chart with trendlines, volume, ADX, and OBV for daily SPX prices&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for Jan 19 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8628\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-spx_trendline_analysis-daily.png?w=640\" alt=\"Technical analysis of daily SPX prices\" width=\"640\" height=\"477\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8628\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">SPX Price &amp; Volume Chart for Jan 19 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The ADX is neutral, and will flip to bullish with another day of gains.\u00a0 Institutional activity improved last week and shifted back to bullish, with signs of accumulation and a close above the 50-day moving average.\u00a0 On-Balance Volume also shows a rate-of-change increase.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8629\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8629\" data-attachment-id=\"8629\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/01\/19\/stock-market-outlook-january-19-2025\/2025-01-19-sector_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-sector_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"2921,2184\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-01-19-Sector_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each S&amp;P500 Sector ETF&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 03 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8629\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-sector_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance of S&amp;P500 sector ETFs\" width=\"640\" height=\"479\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8629\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">S&amp;P Sector Performance for Week 03 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Energy <em>(\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xle\">$XLE<\/a> )<\/em> and Financials <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xlf\">$XLF<\/a> )<\/em> put in quite a week, as did Materials <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xlb\">$XLB<\/a> )<\/em>.\u00a0 Consumer Staples <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sectorspdrs.com\/mainfund\/xlp\">$XLP<\/a> ) <\/em>was the weakest section, only managing a gain of 1.2%.\u00a0 Several sectors mirrored the indexes shift back to a bullish bias: Communications, Energy, Financials, and Utilities.\u00a0 Technology and Industrials improved to neutral.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8630\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8630\" data-attachment-id=\"8630\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/01\/19\/stock-market-outlook-january-19-2025\/2025-01-19-style_performance_analysis\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-style_performance_analysis.png\" data-orig-size=\"2920,2187\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-01-19-Style_Performance_Analysis\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each investing style&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Sector Style Performance for Week 03 of 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-style_performance_analysis.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8630\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-style_performance_analysis.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by sector style\" width=\"640\" height=\"479\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8630\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sector Style Performance for Week 03 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Momentum style factor was last week\u2019s top performer, gaining 5%.\u00a0 The \u201cworst\u201d performer was Large Cap Growth at +2.2%.<\/p>\n<p>Much like the index sectors, style factors also showed an improvement in bias:\u00a0 High Beta,\u00a0 Mid, Large, and Mega-Cap growth, Mid-Cap value and Momentum all shifted to bullish, while Quality moved back to neutral.<\/p>\n<div data-shortcode=\"caption\" id=\"attachment_8632\" style=\"width: 650px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-8632\" data-attachment-id=\"8632\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/2025\/01\/19\/stock-market-outlook-january-19-2025\/2025-01-19-asset_class_performance\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-asset_class_performance.png\" data-orig-size=\"2921,1591\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2025-01-19-Asset_Class_Performance\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Data table with weekly returns for each asset class&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Asset Class Performance for Week 03 2025&lt;\/p&gt;&#10;\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-asset_class_performance.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-asset_class_performance.png?w=640\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-8632\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.invest-safely.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/2025-01-19-asset_class_performance.png?w=640\" alt=\"Weekly price performance by asset class\" width=\"640\" height=\"349\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-8632\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Asset Class Performance for Week 03 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Bitcoin <em>( <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ishares.com\/us\/products\/333011\/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf\">$IBIT<\/a> )<\/em> was the best performer last week, and is almost back to even over the past 4 weeks.\u00a0 The U.S. dollar was the worst performer. U.S. equities flipped from Bearish to Bullish bias, confirming the change in the market outlook.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>COMMENTARY<\/strong><\/span><br \/>Last week\u2019s post touched on the quick turnaround we\u2019ve seen in recent downtrends.\u00a0\u00a0 You have to go back to August-October 2023 to find one lasting longer than 4 weeks.\u00a0 Of course, there\u2019s no guarantee the market doesn\u2019t pullback again from here and flip to a downtrend again.\u00a0 The incoming Trump administration promised many executive orders on Day 1, and we need to see how buyers and sellers react to the details.<\/p>\n<p>One trade-off of mechanical investing\/trading systems is the whipsaw; when price movement generates successive entry and exit signals during a short period of time.\u00a0 For example, a 50-day moving average cross-over signal would have tripped 6 times since mid-December; that\u2019s about once per week.\u00a0 The example process presented here, in the weekend update, uses 3 indicators to reduce the number of false signals, but no system is perfect. It\u2019s the \u201cprice\u201d you pay for avoiding major drawdowns.<\/p>\n<p>The whipsaw is another reason to evaluate the relative performance of your holdings and weather the storm with tickers showing strength during general market weakness <em>( drop the zeros; stick with the heroes )<\/em>.\u00a0 For example, rising oil and natural gas prices have supported the Energy sector, which is up almost 8% over the past 4 weeks, despite the general weakness in equities <em>( $SPY dropped 1.5% )<\/em>.\u00a0 On the flip side, Consumer Staples fell ~6% over the same period.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking of the price you pay, December inflation data showed rising prices remain an issue for the U.S. economy.\u00a0 The headline consumer price index (CPI) rose for the third month in a row, although Core CPI fell 10 basis points and has been basically flat since July.<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse;width: AUTO\" border=\"1\" width=\"AUTO\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"7\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td><strong>CPI (y\/y)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Actual<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Prior<br \/><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Expected<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Headline<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.9%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.7%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+2.9%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Core<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.2%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.3%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.3%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Producer prices (PPI) rose in November for the 3rd month in a row.\u00a0 Core PPI was flat for the second month in a row, but again because the prior month\u2019s reading was revised higher (up from 3.4%).<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse;width: AUTO\" border=\"1\" width=\"AUTO\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"7\">\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td><strong>PPI (y\/y)<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Actual<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Prior<br \/><\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center\"><strong>Expected<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Headline<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.3%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.0%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.4%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"width: 50pt;height: 15.0pt\">\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>Core<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.5%<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.5%*<\/em><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right\"><em>+3.8%<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Retails sales rose 0.4% in December, slowing significantly from than November\u2019s 0.8% increase and below expectations of 0.6%.<\/p>\n<p>U.S. markets are closed Monday, on observance of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.\u2019s birthday, and then earnings season begins to ramp up over the remainder of the week.<\/p>\n<p>Best to Your Week!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><em>P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.<br \/>If you don\u2019t, tell an enemy.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h6>Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/h6>\n<hr\/>\n<h6>Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.\u00a0 Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.<\/h6>\n<h6>Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.<\/h6>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 19th= Uptrend ADX Directional Indicators: Neutral Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): Uptrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook shifts back to an uptrend, after bouncing from oversold levels into a long weekend. The S&amp;P500 ( $SPX ) gained 2.9% last week.\u00a0 The index is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41305,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[3805,11209,12752,3310],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-41304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-january","tag-market","tag-outlook","tag-stock"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Stock Market Outlook \u2013 January 19 2025 - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=41304\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 January 19 2025 - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of January 19th= Uptrend ADX Directional Indicators: Neutral Institutional Activity (Price &amp; Volume): Uptrend On Balance Volume Indicator: Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook shifts back to an uptrend, after bouncing from oversold levels into a long weekend. 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