As you might know, back in 2020, we set up a dedicated inflation channel in our Insider private forum for members to share their own experiences with all things \u201ctransitory,\u201d such as this recent \u201cshrinkflation\u201d report from Clint:<\/p>\n
\nThese showed up in my stocking today. I don\u2019t think I\u2019ve had one since I was a kid, but pretty certain they were much bigger. I opened them up and laughed. There\u2019s a toothpick for scale. The box itself is probably \u201cnormal size\u201d but that plastic tray it comes in buffers about 1\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n
Plus, a report from Russia \u2014 this one from member Vitalie, who shared a note from a friend in Russia.<\/p>\n
\nYou once asked about inflation. Well, officially it\u2019s 10%. According to my feelings (without using any scientific methods) it\u2019s 50-70%.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\nBut that\u2019s not how most investors feel! Somewhat ironically, they have virtually eliminated the tail risks of an inflationary shock \u2014 as you can see in the chart we shared in the\u00a0Insider Newsletter<\/em>\u00a0a while back.<\/p>\n\n
Put differently, the market has priced in an extremely low probability of inflation moving materially higher over the coming months.<\/p>\n
Time will tell if they\u2019re indeed right\u2026<\/p>\n
\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8\u00a0JUST GIVE UP ALREADY!<\/strong><\/h2>\nThose contrarian indicators just keep on coming.<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re a long-time reader, you\u2019ll probably know we\u2019re big fans of using things like magazine covers and news articles as a market sentiment barometer and a contrarian indicator.<\/p>\n
Much like that George Costanza bit \u2014 if every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.<\/p>\n
\n
When everyone is telling you to pile into one sector, market, asset class\u2026 it might be worth doing the opposite.<\/p>\n
Case in point\u2026<\/p>\n
\n
Now, it\u2019s not hard to see why these kinds of headlines are popping up right now. Compared to the rest of the world, US stocks are at 75-year highs.<\/p>\n
\n
That\u2019s a full 14 years of the S&P 500 outperforming the world stock market in a linear fashion\u2026 and by a huge magnitude.<\/p>\n
So much so that the US stocks now account for 73% of the MSCI World Index, as this chart from Tavi Costa (@TaviCosta) shows:<\/p>\n
\n
Here\u2019s Tavi\u2019s commentary:<\/p>\n
\nUS stocks currently account for 73% of the MSCI World Index, the highest single-country weighting ever recorded in its history.<\/em><\/p>\nThis overwhelming dominance reflects how US equities have attracted the majority of global capital, leaving the rest of the world largely overlooked and underfunded by investors.<\/em><\/p>\nAt what point does the tide shift?<\/em><\/p>\nThose who believe it never will are blatantly ignoring the lessons of history in my view.<\/em><\/p>\nMarket leadership undergoes secular shifts, and after an extended period of US stocks outperforming the rest of the world, I see an increasing likelihood that capital could begin to flow back into countries that have long been overlooked.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\nWhile on the topic of countries that have long been overlooked\u2026<\/p>\n
\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\uddf3\u00a0CHINA, CHINA, CHINA<\/strong><\/h2>\nA while back, we discussed coal and oil and gas stocks as a way to capitalize on the AI boom and the massive pickup in energy demand that comes with it. And when yuuuge amounts of energy are required to power AI supercomputers and data centers, energy costs matter\u2026 a lot.<\/p>\n
Consider that China produces 1GW of nuclear power for $2 billion. At the same time, in the US, it costs $12 billion to produce the same 1GW of nuclear power. That\u2019s six times more \u2014 just to get the same amount of energy.<\/p>\n
We recently came across an insightful post from Petri Kuittinen (@KuittinenPetri), which echoes the same sentiment:<\/p>\n
\nYou need 3 things to be #1 in AI:<\/em><\/p>\n\nData<\/li>\n Computing resources<\/li>\n Electricity<\/li>\n<\/ol>\nUSA leads in #2 (twice as much as China), and has slight lead in #1. But Chinas has 2 more electricity generation than USA and far cheaper energy. China\u2019s advantage in electricity generation is likely to grow in next few years.<\/em><\/p>\nAnd when it comes to number of STEM students and AI scientists China has a massive lead.<\/em><\/p>\nIt might be so that USA maintains lead in the most cutting edge models as big USA companies have deeper pockets than anybody else, but most people don\u2019t need genius-level intelligence. They need something to do their home work, boring bits of their work, help them composing messages. DeepSeek will of course improve from V3, but V3 is already good enough for many tasks, including coding, which is #1 use case for many.<\/em><\/p>\nPrice and availability of course matters enormously. If its price is near zero, you can run 1000s of instances in parallel and get the job, which would normally require you weeks, done in mere few minutes. If the price is cost to zero, all kinds of apps from productivity (Office, multimedia) to games could be AI powered.<\/em><\/p>\nAI diagnoses will be (near) free as it will consume so little electricity & tokens that it will be less $0.05 for an expert diagnosis.<\/em><\/p>\nCombine with fast & cheap net, you can bring AI to all sorts of devices, vehicles etc.<\/em><\/p>\nSome societies will adapt and take advantage of this faster than others. Some will put legal hurdles (like EU) and have strong unions (like EU) to make sure they will stay behind in AI + robots race.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\nPerhaps that\u2019s why Chinese tech companies are able to slash their AI prices by 85% (at the same time, OpenAI struggles to make money with ChatGPT Pro costing $200 per month)\u2026<\/p>\n
\n
Curiously enough, Chinese tech stocks got absolutely decimated over the past couple of years \u2014 down some 70% from their 2021 peaks.<\/p>\n
Surely, their earnings must\u2019ve collapsed, right? Nothing could be further from the truth. In many cases, in fact, earnings are now materially higher.<\/p>\n
Sticking with Alibaba as an example (share price in white vs. earnings per share in orange)\u2026<\/p>\n
\n
Now, to be fair, earnings for American tech companies have also been hitting record highs\u2026 but so, too, have their share prices.<\/p>\n
This is exactly the kind of asymmetric setup that makes us giddy with excitement.<\/p>\n
Assuming these earnings dynamics don\u2019t get much worse from here, we don\u2019t think it would take a lot for Chinese tech stocks to go much higher than where they are today. Certainly, stranger things have happened in the markets.<\/p>\n
\ud83e\udd23\u00a0WEEKLY HUMOUR<\/strong><\/h2>\nYou\u2019ve heard of Karl Marx. But we bet you\u2019ve never heard of his athletically gifted sister.<\/p>\n
\n
Have a great week!<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\ud83c\udf99\ufe0f\u00a0NEW PODCAST WITH CHRIS AND BRAD Welcome to 2025! If the events of the past couple of days are anything to go by, we\u2019re up for an \u201ceventful\u201d year\u2026 To kick things off, we have a new podcast to share with you today. Chris and Brad recently joined Danny on the CapitalCosm show. Here\u2019s a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38620,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[15977,6618,15978],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-38619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-capitalist","tag-china","tag-exploits"],"yoast_head":"\n
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