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Bitcoin<\/a> traded with subdued volatility on Thursday as a rebound in US equities and a softer read on inflation reduced the pressure investors had placed on risk assets. In late US trading, BTC<\/a> held near $64,500, largely steady from the prior day, after market attention shifted to June\u2019s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation release.<\/p>\n The PCE report showed inflation cooling to 3.7% year-on-year\u2014matching expectations\u2014while S&P 500 and Nasdaq<\/a> Composite gains reflected a broader \u201crisk-on\u201d tone. Even so, commentators cautioned that the numbers still sit well above the Federal Reserve\u2019s 2% target, keeping the longer-term debate about the inflation path alive.<\/p>\n Charting from TradingView<\/a> showed BTC\/USD action focusing around $64,500, with price behavior described as broadly unchanged versus the previous day. Earlier in the week, crypto had faced a headwind from a broad sell-off in semiconductor stocks, a move that spilled into other risk assets during US trading. That pressure eased on Thursday, helping keep Bitcoin from forcing a sharp reaction to the day\u2019s macro catalyst.<\/p>\n At the time of writing, the S&P 500 was up about 1% and the Nasdaq<\/a> Composite gained roughly 2.3%, reflecting improving sentiment across markets following the inflation data release.<\/p>\n June\u2019s PCE inflation print provided the day\u2019s primary momentum. The year-on-year reading of 3.7% matched market expectations, while May\u2019s figure had been 4.1%, which was described as the highest in three years. PCE is widely treated as the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation measure because it is based on a broad basket of consumer spending and updates more quickly as consumer choices shift in response to prices. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland describes this framing as a key advantage of the PCE approach.<\/p>\n In its release, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) attributed the month\u2019s increase in current-dollar PCE to higher spending\u2014most notably services. The BEA said the $65.2 billion rise in current-dollar PCE reflected increases of $58.2 billion in spending on services and $7.0 billion in spending on goods.<\/p>\n Even with the cooling headline number\u2014and the BEA noting a month-on-month decline\u2014some market watchers treated the report as cautiously supportive rather than decisive. The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that the 3.7% rate was still the second-highest result since October 2024. The account also argued that inflation was running at nearly double the Fed\u2019s 2.0% target.<\/p>\n Economist Steve Hanke also pushed back against complacency, describing inflation as a \u201cgenie the Fed just can\u2019t put back in the bottle,\u201d while emphasizing the mismatch between current inflation and the Fed\u2019s goal.<\/p>\n Beyond the inflation print, Thursday\u2019s narrative also centered on interest-rate expectations. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at its latest meeting on Wednesday, with an emerging split among Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members over the appropriate policy path.<\/p>\n Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, argued that Bitcoin\u2019s sensitivity to future rate announcements may be lower than what investors have historically experienced. On social media, Hougan pointed to the pattern of rate swings during Bitcoin\u2019s history\u2014ranging across very wide levels\u2014and suggested that future changes may be more incremental. His comment referenced CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool, which implies a smaller trajectory for rates over the coming year compared with prior cycles.<\/p>\n Hougan also tied his view to expectations around leadership. He stated that new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is likely to echo former chair Alan Greenspan in terms of the scale of policy moves, contrasting that with Jerome Powell. In addition, he referenced earlier signals from US President Donald Trump<\/a> suggesting Warsh would take a more dovish stance on policy, a development that, if realized, could support risk-asset performance and reduce the market\u2019s fear of abrupt tightening.<\/p>\n Bitcoin\u2019s muted reaction to Thursday\u2019s macro headlines suggests investors are still willing to hold through volatility when equities stabilize, but the debate over whether inflation is truly on a sustainable path remains unresolved. The next key factor will be whether incoming PCE reads continue to ease toward the Fed\u2019s target and whether rate expectations\u2014tracked via tools like CME FedWatch\u2014continue to shift more gradually rather than re-pricing abrupt policy changes.<\/p>\nKey takeaways<\/h2>\n
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BTC stays range-bound as equities recover<\/h2>\n
PCE cools to 3.7%\u2014but remains far above the Fed target<\/h2>\n
Fed policy uncertainty persists\u2014Bitwise expects weaker rate sensitivity<\/h2>\n
What investors should watch next<\/h2>\n