{"id":357618,"date":"2026-07-10T11:51:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T11:51:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/uncategorized\/a-2026-nwsl-midseason-analysis-from-the-lens-of-expected-threat-american-soccer-analysis\/"},"modified":"2026-07-10T11:51:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T11:51:09","slug":"a-2026-nwsl-midseason-analysis-from-the-lens-of-expected-threat-american-soccer-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=357618","title":{"rendered":"A 2026 NWSL Midseason Analysis From the Lens of Expected Threat \u2014 American Soccer Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div data-sqsp-text-block-content=\"\">\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Now finally, we&#8217;re at the league leaders in Expected Threat and in the standings San Diego. The stats hating stalwart Kenza Dali leads the league at 2.42 followed by the incredible Dudinha (1.57). Dudinha\u2019s season ending injury is a big blow at 15% of the Wave\u2019s total output. Dudinha is not only the Waves\u2019 second largest contributor in Expected Threat, but ranks fifth overall in the league. Kennedy Wesley (0.90), Ludmila (0.87), Mimi Van Zanten (0.86), have all been strong contributors to San Diego\u2019s league leading threat.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">San Diego is dangerous from all sides. Threat is well balanced from both the right and left, at 43% and 44% respectively. The Wave are remarkably effective moving the ball through the thirds, and from the final third into the penalty area, which well folks, is why they are not only top of the table, but #1 in Expected Threat.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">A League Wide View<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">We\u2019ve made it to the end! To recap, what stands out is how teams at the top (San Diego, Utah, KC) create danger from multiple zones, while struggling teams rely too heavily on one approach or one player.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">As with any model based analysis, there are limitations. This version of xT is derived from 2025 league-wide passing and shooting patterns and applied to 2026 data, meaning it does not fully capture tactical evolution across seasons. The underlying logistic regression xG component may also underrepresent more nuanced shot contexts, while the event-based nature of xT excludes factors such as defensive pressure, body orientation, and goalkeeper positioning. Most importantly, the relatively small sample size (11\u201313 matches at midseason mark) hides variance unique to the 2026 season that is then regressed toward 2025 league averages.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" style=\"white-space:pre-wrap;\">Finally, a table of the top 15 players in overall Expected Threat is included below for reference.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Now finally, we&#8217;re at the league leaders in Expected Threat and in the standings San Diego. The stats hating stalwart Kenza Dali leads the league at 2.42 followed by the incredible Dudinha (1.57). Dudinha\u2019s season ending injury is a big blow at 15% of the Wave\u2019s total output. Dudinha is not only the Waves\u2019 second [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":357619,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[204,10990,17276,2772,71906,106646,2524,14898],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-357618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-american","tag-analysis","tag-expected","tag-lens","tag-midseason","tag-nwsl","tag-soccer","tag-threat"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>A 2026 NWSL Midseason Analysis From the Lens of Expected Threat \u2014 American Soccer Analysis - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=357618\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A 2026 NWSL Midseason Analysis From the Lens of Expected Threat \u2014 American Soccer Analysis - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Now finally, we&#8217;re at the league leaders in Expected Threat and in the standings San Diego. The stats hating stalwart Kenza Dali leads the league at 2.42 followed by the incredible Dudinha (1.57). Dudinha\u2019s season ending injury is a big blow at 15% of the Wave\u2019s total output. Dudinha is not only the Waves\u2019 second [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=357618\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-10T11:51:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/equation.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"942\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"88\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=357618#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=357618\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/b85e3c3dc0e1daea076524dc8810c371\"},\"headline\":\"A 2026 NWSL Midseason Analysis From the Lens of Expected Threat \u2014 American Soccer Analysis\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-10T11:51:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=357618\"},\"wordCount\":305,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=357618#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/equation.png\",\"keywords\":[\"American\",\"Analysis\",\"Expected\",\"Lens\",\"MidSeason\",\"NWSL\",\"Soccer\",\"threat\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=357618#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=357618\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=357618\",\"name\":\"A 2026 NWSL Midseason Analysis From the Lens of Expected Threat \u2014 American Soccer Analysis - 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