{"id":356223,"date":"2026-07-09T06:41:35","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T06:41:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/insurance\/csu-lowers-2026-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-further-citing-el-nino-and-wind-shear\/"},"modified":"2026-07-09T06:41:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T06:41:35","slug":"csu-lowers-2026-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-further-citing-el-nino-and-wind-shear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=356223","title":{"rendered":"CSU lowers 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast further, citing El Ni\u00f1o and wind shear"},"content":{"rendered":"


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The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has now further reduced its seasonal forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season<\/a><\/strong>, citing the high-likelihood of a strong El Ni\u00f1o and the associated increase in vertical wind shear as the primary factor.

\"2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-img1\"Here, the Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has differed from the update earlier today from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).<\/p>\n

The TSR team raised their seasonal forecast numbers by 1 hurricane and 1 major hurricane earlier this afternoon, saying there are \u201cindications that the sub-tropical Atlantic may provide more favourable conditions for tropical cyclones.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

But the CSU forecast team remains focused on the expectation that this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o will be particularly strong and so reduce and suppress Atlantic named storm and hurricane activity.<\/p>\n

In the CSU team\u2019s last update<\/a>, the team called for 11 named tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes this 2026 season, with a forecast for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the 2026 hurricane season at an Index value of 70, reducing all numbers since a May forecast.<\/p>\n

Now, in the July 8th update, the CSU team is calling for seasonal numbers of 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, just 1 major hurricane and a seasonal ACE Index value of only 50, lower still.<\/p>\n

The CSU team explained, \u201cWe further reduce our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and now anticipate a well below-normal season. Moderate El Ni\u00f1o conditions are likely to intensify over the next few months, with a high potential for a strong El Ni\u00f1o for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages. We anticipate the powerful El Ni\u00f1o being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.\u201d<\/p>\n

The CSU team always gives some landfall probability figures in their forecast updates.<\/p>\n

At the June update they were:<\/p>\n