{"id":356076,"date":"2026-07-09T04:14:06","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T04:14:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/uncategorized\/no-cavalry-is-coming-for-bitcoin\/"},"modified":"2026-07-09T04:14:06","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T04:14:06","slug":"no-cavalry-is-coming-for-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=356076","title":{"rendered":"No Cavalry Is Coming for Bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div style=\"--awb-margin-top:0px;--awb-margin-right:0px;--awb-margin-bottom:0px;--awb-margin-left:0px;\">\n<p>The macro analyst and Ego Death Capital partner told the Coin Stories podcast that Bitcoin sentiment is the weakest she has ever seen \u2014 but that the asset&#8217;s next leg higher will have to be earned, not printed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"--awb-text-color:#000000;--awb-margin-left:0px;--awb-margin-right:0px;--awb-text-transform:none;\">\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"7:1-7:647;280-926\">Lyn Alden built her reputation by refusing to tell Bitcoiners what they want to hear, and her latest appearance on Natalie Brunell\u2019s Coin Stories held to form. With Bitcoin trading near $62,000 \u2014 roughly half its October 2025 high and fresh off a 21-month low \u2014 the founder of <a class=\"underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current\/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lynalden.com\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Lyn Alden Investment Strategy<\/a> and general partner at Bitcoin-only venture firm <a class=\"underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current\/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current\" href=\"https:\/\/egodeath.capital\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ego Death Capital<\/a> delivered a message with no comfort in it: this is the lowest sentiment she has personally seen in the asset, weaker even than the stretch that followed 2022\u2019s FTX collapse, and there is no obvious rescue on the way.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"9:1-9:126;928-1053\">\u201cThe asset just has to survive on its own merits,\u201d Alden said.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Lyn Alden: Why This Is the Worst Bitcoin Sentiment She&amp;apos;s Ever Seen\" width=\"840\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/lIg0G0z2KkY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold\" data-sourcepos=\"11:1-11:32;1055-1086\">The fastest horse went to AI<\/h2>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"13:1-13:195;1088-1282\">Alden\u2019s starting point was that Bitcoin and gold have not fallen because anything is broken in the bull case for hard money. They have fallen because capital found somewhere more exciting to be.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"15:1-15:768;1284-2051\">Her framing is that the artificial-intelligence trade drained liquidity out of everything else from roughly the autumn of 2025. The hyperscalers \u2014 the Microsofts, Metas, Amazons and Alphabets that once threw off enormous free cash flow \u2014 pivoted to aggressive capital spending on data centers and increasingly expensive chips, in some cases going free-cash-flow negative and tapping debt markets. That, in turn, sent a wave of capital into memory and semiconductor names, some of which doubled or ran up tenfold in months. Bitcoin, she noted, peaked at almost exactly the moment those free cash flows started to drain. For the marginal dollar chasing momentum, chips became what Paul Tudor Jones once called the fastest horse in the race, and Bitcoin was left behind.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"17:1-17:624;2053-2676\">On whether AI itself is a bubble, Alden was deliberately nuanced. She sees genuinely frothy pockets and is avoiding the most expensive names, but she \u201cgently fades\u201d the fully bearish view that the whole build-out is malinvestment destined to unwind. Her segmentation is worth noting for crypto investors watching the read-across: she views the AI model layer as structurally flimsy \u2014 low switching costs, weak network effects, services sold below cost \u2014 while the chipmakers look like the fundamental winners and the hyperscalers sit somewhere in between, carrying real revenue but not yet the profits to justify the spend.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold\" data-sourcepos=\"19:1-19:34;2678-2711\">When does capital rotate back?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"21:1-21:441;2713-3153\">Alden was careful not to call a bottom, but she thinks Bitcoin is near the low end of its historical valuation range on several metrics, and that most of the hard work of a bear market \u2014 flushing out leverage and fast money \u2014 is largely done. As coins rotate from short-term speculators to holders who rarely sell, she argues, the marginal supply-demand balance tightens, so it takes only a modest amount of returning capital to move price.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"23:1-23:592;3155-3746\">The catalyst she is watching is not a Bitcoin story at all: it is the chip trade cooling off. She pointed to an early tremor when Meta signaled it had excess compute, triggering the sharpest reversal in semiconductor names since April. Once that momentum fades, she expects contrarian and technical buyers to start eyeing an asset that is down while everything else is up. Her base case, though, is sober \u2014 she thinks new all-time highs this year are unlikely, and that a realistic \u201cgood\u201d outcome is simply a floor holding and the technical picture turning from flat-to-down into flat-to-up.<\/p>\n<p data-sourcepos=\"23:1-23:592;3155-3746\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazyload aligncenter wp-image-125545 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-09-at-9.34.02-AM-1024x493.png\" alt=\"bitcoin price chart\" width=\"1024\" height=\"493\" srcset=\"data:image\/svg+xml,%3Csvg%20xmlns%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%27%20width%3D%271024%27%20height%3D%27493%27%20viewBox%3D%270%200%201024%20493%27%3E%3Crect%20width%3D%271024%27%20height%3D%27493%27%20fill-opacity%3D%220%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-09-at-9.34.02-AM-200x96.png 200w, https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-09-at-9.34.02-AM-300x144.png 300w, https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-09-at-9.34.02-AM-400x192.png 400w, https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-09-at-9.34.02-AM-600x289.png 600w, https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-09-at-9.34.02-AM-768x369.png 768w, https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-09-at-9.34.02-AM-800x385.png 800w, https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-09-at-9.34.02-AM-1024x493.png 1024w, https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-09-at-9.34.02-AM-1200x577.png 1200w, https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-09-at-9.34.02-AM-1536x739.png 1536w\" data-sizes=\"auto\" data-orig-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" data-sourcepos=\"23:1-23:592;3155-3746\"><em>Bitcoin remains flat, falling 2% overnight, source: <a href=\"https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/data-and-charts\/bitcoin-price-btc\">Brave New Coin<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold\" data-sourcepos=\"25:1-25:34;3748-3781\">Strategy\u2019s stress test arrives<\/h2>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"27:1-27:271;3783-4053\">The interview\u2019s most detailed section dealt with Strategy (MSTR) and its variable-rate \u201cStretch\u201d preferred stock, STRC \u2014 a product Alden has probed directly, having asked pointed questions on two of the company\u2019s earnings calls as an analyst.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"29:1-29:903;4055-4957\">Her long-standing concern was leverage building <em>on top of<\/em> the instrument. STRC is designed to trade near its $100 par value, with a variable dividend (now <a class=\"underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current\/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current\" href=\"https:\/\/www.strategy.com\/strc\/learn\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">12% annually<\/a>) used to hold it there. But a low-double-digit yield invites carry trades and third-party products built on the assumption that the peg holds \u2014 and nothing guarantees it does. When Bitcoin sold off, that is roughly what played out: STRC hit a record low near $89 in June, Strategy paused issuance below par, and the company <a class=\"underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current\/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current\" href=\"https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/insights\/strategy-sells-3588-bitcoin-to-fund-dividends-as-saylors-treasury-model-meets-its-first-real-test\">sold Bitcoin for the first time to fund preferred dividends<\/a> \u2014 a striking reversal for a firm whose founder vowed never to sell.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"31:1-31:851;4959-5809\">Alden\u2019s read is measured. She flagged that the USD reserve fell well below prior guidance of 24\u201336 months, at one point dropping to around six months of coverage, which from an investor\u2019s standpoint is exactly the kind of downside surprise you do not want to see. But she judged the company\u2019s response reasonable: it <a class=\"underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current\/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current\" href=\"https:\/\/bravenewcoin.com\/insights\/strategy-just-authorized-selling-bitcoin-for-the-first-time-the-never-sell-era-is-over\">formalized a Digital Credit Capital Framework<\/a>, set board-level floors on how low reserves can fall without approval, and has rebuilt coverage back to roughly 17 months. Beyond that, she stressed, everything comes down to Bitcoin\u2019s price: a leveraged entity has a rougher ride when its underlying asset falls and outperforms when it rises. Strategy remains the largest corporate holder, at roughly 847,000 BTC.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold\" data-sourcepos=\"33:1-33:29;5811-5839\">The digital-credit divide<\/h2>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"35:1-35:560;5841-6400\">On the broader \u201cdigital credit\u201d asset class now splitting Bitcoiners, Alden staked out the middle. The best Bitcoin, she maintains, is self-custodied Bitcoin \u2014 the whole point of a bearer asset is to actually hold it. But she pushed back on purists who object to any corporate ownership, arguing there is no version of a multi-trillion-dollar liquid asset that stays owned only by retail. Pensions, insurers, sovereign wealth funds and treasury companies were structurally locked out for years; this cycle is how much of that penned-up demand finally arrives.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"37:1-37:295;6402-6696\">Her line in the sand is marketing, not existence. Products that give leverage-seeking or yield-seeking investors regulated exposure are fine on a spectrum; what concerns her is any pitch that tells people to buy the proxy <em>instead of<\/em> Bitcoin, or that downplays tail risk on a yield instrument.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold\" data-sourcepos=\"39:1-39:40;6698-6737\">Memecoins, M2 and the protocol fight<\/h2>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"41:1-41:527;6739-7265\">Alden tied part of Bitcoin\u2019s underperformance to the wider crypto market she has long been structurally bearish on. Outside Bitcoin, stablecoins and a handful of tokenized real-world assets, she sees little durable demand \u2014 a multi-trillion-dollar edifice of \u201cplayer-versus-player\u201d speculation that, as it deflates, drags on Bitcoin through cross-ownership and forced selling. That also helps explain why Bitcoin has diverged from global M2 lately, despite her prior work showing the two move together roughly 83% of the time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"43:1-43:604;7267-7870\">On the <a class=\"underline underline underline-offset-2 decoration-1 decoration-current\/40 hover:decoration-current focus:decoration-current\" href=\"https:\/\/bip110.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">contested BIP-110 soft fork<\/a> heading for a mandatory-signaling window in early August, Alden was skeptical of the temperature more than the substance. She would not support loosening consensus rules or raising the block-size limit to let more non-monetary data in, but she thinks framing a relatively minor technical change as \u201cexistential\u201d \u2014 and pushing a contested fork on lowered consensus thresholds \u2014 is precisely the kind of pressure tactic that makes her dig in. Her prediction: a year from now it will look like less of a big deal than the current hostility suggests.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"text-text-100 mt-3 -mb-1 text-[1.125rem] font-bold\" data-sourcepos=\"45:1-45:32;7872-7903\">No big print, just the grind<\/h2>\n<p class=\"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal\" data-sourcepos=\"47:1-47:604;7905-8508\">Finally, the \u201cbig money print\u201d so many Bitcoiners are waiting for still isn\u2019t coming, in Alden\u2019s view. She sees broad money grinding higher at an unremarkable pace, banks lending moderately, and a Fed that has slowed its balance-sheet expansion. Even the recent flare-up in the Middle East, she said, hasn\u2019t been enough to break her gradual-print base case. Her investment approach doesn\u2019t depend on a crisis-driven liquidity flood; it rests on the slower certainty of fiat debasement, and on owning scarce, high-quality, category-leading assets bought at low-to-mid sentiment and reasonable valuations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The macro analyst and Ego Death Capital partner told the Coin Stories podcast that Bitcoin sentiment is the weakest she has ever seen \u2014 but that the asset&#8217;s next leg higher will have to be earned, not printed. Lyn Alden built her reputation by refusing to tell Bitcoiners what they want to hear, and her [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":356077,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[99653,98553,177279,88],"tags":[12920,39312,4641],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-356076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","category-crypto","category-lyn-alden","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-cavalry","tag-coming"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>No Cavalry Is Coming for Bitcoin - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=356076\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"No Cavalry Is Coming for Bitcoin - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The macro analyst and Ego Death Capital partner told the Coin Stories podcast that Bitcoin sentiment is the weakest she has ever seen \u2014 but that the asset&#8217;s next leg higher will have to be earned, not printed. 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