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<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\nDear Mr. Market:<\/p>\n
In June of 1997, a little online bookstore called Amazon went public at a market capitalization of approximately $440 million. Today, Amazon is worth nearly $3 trillion. A $10,000 investment at that IPO would have turned into a genuinely life-changing sum of money.<\/p>\n
Naturally, investors are now looking at the upcoming SpaceX IPO\u2026 ticker\u00a0SPCX<\/strong>, expected to list on Nasdaq around June 12th , and asking the same question:\u00a0\u201cIs this the next Amazon?\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n Maybe. But there is one major difference that most people glossing over the headlines haven\u2019t fully absorbed.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Read more: SpaceX Is Going Public. Here\u2019s Why We\u2019re Not Chasing It on Day\u00a0One<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n Amazon went public before most people believed in it. SpaceX is going public after almost everyone already does.<\/strong><\/p>\n That distinction matters more than most investors realize. And it\u2019s the lens through which we\u2019re evaluating this entire situation.<\/p>\n SPACEX BY THE NUMBERS \u2014 MAY 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n The Biggest IPO in History<\/strong><\/p>\n SpaceX is expected to debut with a valuation between $1.75 and $2 trillion. For perspective, that would immediately make it one of the most valuable companies on Earth\u2026 not just among aerospace or technology companies, but across all companies, full stop.<\/p>\n This isn\u2019t a small startup looking to raise capital. This isn\u2019t a speculative biotech hoping for FDA approval. This is a company that spent nearly a quarter century building dominant positions across multiple industries before ever allowing the public to buy shares. The IPO is expected to raise up to\u00a0$75 billion<\/strong>\u2026which would shatter the previous record set by Saudi Aramco\u2019s $25.6 billion offering in 2019.<\/p>\n How SpaceX Stacks Up: Landmark IPOs in History<\/strong><\/p>\n Amazon went public at 3 years old and $440M. SpaceX is going public at 24 years old and $1.8 trillion. Most of the early gains have already been captured by private investors.<\/p>\n SpaceX represents the culmination of a trend we\u2019ve watched for years: elite companies staying private longer and longer while private investors capture most of the early growth. By the time public investors get their opportunity, the easy money has already been made.<\/p>\n Or has it? That\u2019s the trillion-dollar question.<\/p>\n Unlike many IPOs, SpaceX isn\u2019t selling a dream. It already has a real business. Actually, several real businesses. Most investors think of rockets. That\u2019s only part of the story.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s discuss the uncomfortable part. The valuation.<\/p>\n While almost everyone agrees SpaceX is an extraordinary company, not everyone agrees it\u2019s worth $1.8 trillion today. And the numbers in the S-1 filing give us real reason to pump the brakes.<\/p>\n At a $1.8 trillion valuation on $18.7 billion of revenue, investors aren\u2019t paying for today\u2019s earnings. They\u2019re paying for future Starlink growth. Future AI infrastructure. Future defense contracts. Future lunar and Mars missions. Future technologies that may not even exist yet.<\/p>\n In other words:\u00a0investors are paying for what SpaceX might become<\/strong>\u2026not what it currently is.<\/strong>\u00a0And history teaches us that can be both incredibly rewarding and incredibly dangerous.<\/p>\n One aspect of the SpaceX IPO deserves far more attention than it\u2019s getting: the share structure.<\/p>\n Reports indicate that only a relatively small percentage of shares will initially be available to the public. However, in a notable twist, SpaceX has reportedly earmarked\u00a030% of the float for retail investors<\/strong>, three times the standard allocation for a mega-cap offering. Goldman Sachs is leading a 21-bank underwriting syndicate. Demand is going to be overwhelming.<\/p>\n What happens when millions of investors all want a tiny slice of the same company at the same time? Prices become detached from fundamentals very quickly. We\u2019ve seen this movie before.<\/p>\n THE LOCK-UP RISK<\/strong><\/p>\n That doesn\u2019t mean SpaceX will fail as a stock. It simply means investors should understand that enthusiasm alone is not an investment thesis.<\/p>\n The xAI merger is getting lost in the SpaceX excitement, but it\u2019s a real risk factor.\u00a0xAI generated $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025, and revenue growth actually slowed to 12.5% in Q1 2026.<\/strong>\u00a0For comparison, Anthropic just announced run-rate revenue of $47 billion and raised money at a $965 billion valuation. xAI is being valued at a much higher sales multiple than larger, faster-growing competitors. That\u2019s an embedded risk that comes with every share of SPCX you buy.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Starlink (the only truly profitable part of the business) is showing declining average revenue per user (ARPU) as it expands internationally. Margins are likely to compress. The crown jewel has a scratch on it.<\/p>\n This is the question we\u2019ve already started receiving. The honest answer? We\u2019re not treating the SpaceX IPO like a sporting event. We\u2019re treating it like an investment opportunity. There\u2019s a difference.<\/p>\n OUR APPROACH<\/strong><\/p>\n For clients who want exposure, we\u2019re inclined to let the dust settle after the IPO, watch how the stock trades during the lock-up expiration window, and revisit with a clearer picture of what the business actually earns at scale. There will likely be a better entry point than Day One.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s our best guess. The IPO will be wildly successful. Demand will exceed supply. Investors will chase it. The media will celebrate it. The valuation will become increasingly difficult to justify using any traditional metric.<\/p>\n Some people will make fortunes. Some people will buy near the top. Both things can happen simultaneously.<\/p>\n Long term, we wouldn\u2019t bet against Elon Musk as his track record speaks for itself. But we also wouldn\u2019t bet against investor enthusiasm creating excesses along the way. Because markets have a very reliable habit of doing exactly that.<\/p>\n The challenge for every investor right now is determining whether they\u2019re buying the future of humanity\u2026or simply participating in the latest wave of excitement. Those are not always the same thing.<\/p>\n The irony of the SpaceX IPO is that the company may very well change the world. It may transform communications. It may transform transportation. It may reshape our relationship with artificial intelligence and space itself. And yet<\/em>\u2026the stock could still disappoint investors who overpay for it. That\u2019s not a criticism of SpaceX. It\u2019s simply how markets work.<\/em><\/p>\n Great company. Great story. Great vision. None of those automatically equal a great investment.<\/em><\/p>\n \u201cStay disciplined to stay positive.\u201d \u2013 MPG<\/p>\n My Portfolio Guide, LLC<\/a> is a Registered Investment Advisor based in Southern California and serving clients nationwide. We are an independent, fee-only fiduciary offering comprehensive financial planning and personal wealth management. Reach us directly at (562)799-5595 or via email at\u00a0admin@myportfolioguide.com<\/a>. <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dear Mr. Market: In June of 1997, a little online bookstore called Amazon went public at a market capitalization of approximately $440 million. Today, Amazon is worth nearly $3 trillion. A $10,000 investment at that IPO would have turned into a genuinely life-changing sum of money. Naturally, investors are now looking at the upcoming SpaceX […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":355716,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[14557,467,6765,5294,19902],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-355715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-chasing","tag-day","tag-heres","tag-public","tag-spacex"],"yoast_head":"\n<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\nWhy Investors Are Excited\u2026and They Should Be<\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\nNow for the Part Nobody Wants to Talk About<\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\nThe IPO Dynamic Nobody Is Discussing<\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\nOne More Thing Worth Flagging<\/h2>\n
What We\u2019re Doing For Clients<\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\nOur Prediction<\/h2>\n
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