{"id":351493,"date":"2025-12-19T14:38:37","date_gmt":"2025-12-19T14:38:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/stock-market-outlook-december-14-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-12-19T14:38:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-19T14:38:37","slug":"stock-market-outlook-december-14-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=351493","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 December 14 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 14th = Uptrend<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/span>
The stock market outlook shows an uptrend, but stocks have struggled to make much progress over the past two weeks.<\/p>\n

The S&P500 ( $SPX )<\/em><\/a> lost 0.6% last week.\u00a0 The index sits 1% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n

No change in the signals again this week; still waiting for institutional activity to confirm the latest rally attempt.\u00a0 It\u2019s worth noting that we\u2019re outside the ideal window for a follow-through day (4-7 days after the initial reversal).\u00a0 Wednesday looked like it had a chance, but didn\u2019t manage to move more than 1%.\u00a0 During the wait, the market picked up 4 distribution days, which isn\u2019t very promising.<\/p>\n

\"Technical<\/p>\n

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Dec 14 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS<\/strong><\/span>
Financials and Materials ( $XLF & $XLB )<\/em> broke out last week.\u00a0 Technology ( $XLK )<\/em> led the to downside on AI-related worries.\u00a0 Staples and Materials ( $XLP & $XLB )<\/em> returned to bullish bias from Neutral.<\/p>\n

\"Weekly<\/p>\n

S&P Sector Performance from Week 50 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

The Small Cap Value ( $IWN )<\/em> investing style was the largest gainer. Large Cap Growth ( $IWF )<\/em> was the largest loser, again thanks to AI worries.\u00a0 In a reversal of last week\u2019s changes, Large Cap Growth and Momentum ( $IWF & $MTUM )<\/em> shifted back to neutral bias; Low Beta and High Dividend ( $SPLV & $SPHD )<\/em> styles moved up to neutral from bearish.<\/p>\n

\"Weekly<\/p>\n

Sector Style Performance from Week 50 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Oil ( $USO )<\/em> was the worst asset class last week, giving back most of the prior week\u2019s improvement.\u00a0 Gold ( $GLD )<\/em> underperformed.\u00a0 Oil, U.S. Bonds and the U.S. dollar ( $USO, $IEF, $DXY )<\/em> all moved to bearish bias.<\/p>\n

\"Weekly<\/p>\n

Asset Class Performance from Week 50 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

COMMENTARY<\/strong><\/span>
The FOMC the overnight interest rate by 0.25%.\u00a0 No surprise there.\u00a0 They also announced the \u201cpurchase of shorter-term Treasury securities, as needed, to maintain an ample supply of reserves\u201d.\u00a0 Some talking heads say this is quantitative easing, but that\u2019s not quite right.<\/p>\n

During quantitative tightening, which just ended, the Fed reduced its balance sheet by $2.4 trillion dollars.\u00a0 Now, they\u2019ll let the balance sheet grow, as needed, to ensure our financial plumbing operates smoothly.\u00a0 This is basically the policy that was in place prior to the Great Recession.\u00a0 So it\u2019s \u201ceasing\u201d in the sense they\u2019re shifting from tightening to maintaining.\u00a0\u00a0But have no illusions; if\/when the economy\/jobs weaken enough, the next round of QE will be unleashed in spectacular fashion.<\/p>\n

Several macro tickers have moved back and forth between bias categories over the past 2 weeks, which can make for frustrated investors. Given the lack of confirmation from institutional activity, it pays to wait for a confirmation before scaling up any positions.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, a big week of macroeconomic data is on tap.\u00a0 On Tuesday, we get the first NFP report since the government shutdown, along with October retail sales.\u00a0 The market gets a chance to digest those numbers Wednesday, before the November CPI release Thursday.\u00a0 Exiting home sales for November hits the wire Friday.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also a quadruple witching day; the final options expiration of the year, as well as the roll-over of equity futures contracts.<\/p>\n

Best to Your Week!<\/p>\n

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don\u2019t, tell an enemy.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com<\/h6>\n\n
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.\u00a0 Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.<\/h6>\n
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security<\/h6>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 14th = Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook shows an uptrend, but stocks have struggled to make much progress over the past two weeks. The S&P500 ( $SPX ) lost 0.6% last week.\u00a0 The index sits 1% above the 50-day moving average and ~10% above the 200-day moving […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":351494,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[3764,11209,12752,3310],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-351493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-december","tag-market","tag-outlook","tag-stock"],"yoast_head":"\nStock Market Outlook \u2013 December 14 2025 - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=351493\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 December 14 2025 - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of December 14th = Uptrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook shows an uptrend, but stocks have struggled to make much progress over the past two weeks. 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