{"id":342653,"date":"2025-12-13T21:33:45","date_gmt":"2025-12-13T21:33:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/uncategorized\/the-second-gop-debate-could-be-smaller-with-or-without-trump\/"},"modified":"2025-12-13T21:33:45","modified_gmt":"2025-12-13T21:33:45","slug":"the-second-gop-debate-could-be-smaller-with-or-without-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=342653","title":{"rendered":"The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-abc-blocks-article-header abc-blocks-article-header--short-form abc-blocks-article-header--default abc-blocks-article-header--with-dek\">\n<div class=\"abc-blocks-article-header__container\">\n<figure id=\"single-featured-image\" class=\"single-featured-image\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"has-bugs post-thumbnail\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"bug-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<picture class=\"featured-picture\"><source media=\"(min-width: 768px)\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?w=995 1x, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?w=1990 2x\"\/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?w=995 1x, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?w=1990 2x\"\/><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"995\" height=\"687\" class=\"attachment-featured-article-image size-featured-article-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg 2893w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=100,69 100w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=300,207 300w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=768,530 768w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=1024,707 1024w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=1536,1060 1536w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=2048,1414 2048w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=683,471 683w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=575,397 575w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=470,324 470w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=600,414 600w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=377,260 377w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=232,160 232w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=834,576 834w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=207,143 207w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=60,41 60w, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?resize=995,687 995w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 995px) 100vw, 995px\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 995px) 100vw, 995px\" src=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/second-debate-check-in_4x3.jpeg?w=995\"\/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/picture>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<p>\t\t\t<\/span><!-- .has-bugs --><figcaption class=\"caption featured-image-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\tEight Republican candidates participated in the party\u2019s first primary debate in August. But the stage could feature fewer contenders when the GOP holds its next debate later this month.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p class=\"credits\">Joshua Lott \/ The Washington Post via Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><!-- .single-featured-image --><\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">The second Republican presidential primary debate is less than two weeks away, so time is running out for GOP contenders <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/08\/01\/second-republican-primary-debate-criteria-00109284\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">to meet the Republican National Committee\u2019s qualification criteria<\/a>. To make the Sept. 27 debate, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2024-election\/new-gop-debate-criteria-puts-several-candidates-september-hot-seat-rcna98051\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">each candidate must have<\/a> at least 3 percent support in two qualifying national polls, or at least 3 percent in one national survey and that same figure in polls from two different early voting states, conducted since Aug. 1. Each candidate must also provide evidence of having attained at least 50,000 unique donors to their campaign. And if they have the polls and donors, candidates will once again have to sign a pledge to support the party\u2019s eventual 2024 nominee if they want to participate.<\/p>\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">As things stand, there\u2019s a decent chance that fewer candidates will qualify than the eight <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/Politics\/live-updates\/republican-debate-primary\/?id=102507215\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">who attended the party\u2019s first gathering in August<\/a>. Six of that octet appear to have the donors and polls to make the second debate, and each signed the RNC\u2019s pledge for the first debate, so there\u2019s no reason to think they won\u2019t sign again. However, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson may have trouble qualifying again under the higher September thresholds for polls and donors. And <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/first-republican-debate-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">having skipped the first debate<\/a> despite easily qualifying for it \u2014 save signing the RNC\u2019s pledge \u2014 former President Donald Trump looks set <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4194837-trump-stirs-speculation-over-second-gop-debate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">to eschew the second debate<\/a>, too.<\/p>\n<div class=\"core-html \">\n<section class=\"viz\">\n<header class=\"viz\">\n<h2 class=\"title\">At least six candidates look set to make the second GOP debate<\/h2>\n<p class=\"subtitle\">Republican presidential candidates by whether and how they have qualified for the second primary debate and if they signed the first debate pledge, as of 4:30 p.m. Eastern on Sept. 13, 2023<\/p>\n<\/header>\n<table class=\"viz full\" data-carpenter-slug=\"skelley.2nd-debate-qual-check-in.1\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"text\" style=\"width:30%\">Candidate<\/th>\n<th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">Polls<\/th>\n<th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">Donors<\/th>\n<th colspan=\"1\" scope=\"col\" class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:30%\">Signed 1st Debate Pledge<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\" style=\"width:30%\">Ron DeSantis<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:30%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\" style=\"width:30%\">Vivek Ramaswamy<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:30%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\" style=\"width:30%\">Nikki Haley<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:30%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\" style=\"width:30%\">Mike Pence<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:30%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\" style=\"width:30%\">Chris Christie<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:30%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\" style=\"width: 30%; border-bottom: 2px dashed #909090;\">Tim Scott<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align: center; width: 20%; border-bottom: 2px dashed #909090;\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align: center; width: 20%; border-bottom: 2px dashed #909090;\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align: center; width: 30%; border-bottom: 2px dashed #909090;\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text highlight\" style=\"width:30%\">Donald Trump<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean highlight\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean highlight\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean highlight\" style=\"text-align:center;width:30%\"\/> <\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\" style=\"width:30%\">Doug Burgum<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\"\/>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:30%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\" style=\"width:30%\">Asa Hutchinson<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\"\/>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\"\/>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:30%\">\u00e2\u00c2\u0153\u00c2\u201c<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"text\" style=\"width:30%\">Will Hurd<\/td>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\"\/>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:20%\"\/>\n<td class=\"boolean\" style=\"text-align:center;width:30%\"\/> <\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<footer class=\"viz\">\n<p class=\"notes\">Table only includes candidates who have met FiveThirtyEight\u2019s \u201cmajor\u201d candidate criteria. Polls qualification is based on surveys that appear to meet the Republican National Committee\u2019s requirements for inclusion.<\/p>\n<p class=\"notes\">To qualify for the debate, candidates must meet both the polling and donor thresholds established by the Republican National Committee. To meet the polling requirement, a candidate must reach 3 percent in at least two national polls, or 3 percent in one national poll and two polls from the first four states voting in the GOP primary, each coming from separate states, based on surveys that meet the RNC\u2019s criteria for inclusion. To meet the donor requirement, a candidate must have at least 50,000 unique donors with at least 200 donors in at least 20 states and\/or territories. Information released by campaigns is used to determine whether a candidate has hit the donor threshold. If a campaign reached 50,000 donors but did not say whether it had at least 200 donors in 20 states, we assumed that it had met the latter requirement as well. To participate, candidates who have sufficient polls and donors must sign a pledge promising to support the eventual Republican presidential nominee.<\/p>\n<p class=\"source\">Source: POLLS, NEWS REPORTS<\/p>\n<\/footer>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">FiveThirtyEight\u2019s analysis found that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy had at least 3 percent support in every qualifying survey (Trump did as well). Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie met that mark in nearly every survey, while South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott got there in about three-fourths of them. And none of these six candidates showed any sign of difficulty when it came to reaching the 50,000 donor mark. Even Pence\u2019s campaign, which <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/republican-august-debate-qualifications\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">had a harder time attracting donors<\/a> than most, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonexaminer.com\/news\/campaigns\/pence-campaign-50k-donors-second-gop-primary-debate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">announced in mid-August<\/a> that it had enough unique contributors to qualify for the second debate.<\/p>\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">With 11 days to go until the Sept. 25 qualification deadline, the polling threshold rising to 3 percent from 1 percent appears to be the main obstacle for the candidates who haven\u2019t qualified. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.willistonherald.com\/news\/burgum-achieves-more-than-50-000-contributors\/article_8504b91a-2fb0-11ee-8d97-bf8d4b6fd7e3.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Burgum announced in late July<\/a> that he had 50,000 donors, but FiveThirtyEight\u2019s analysis found that he\u2019s reached 3 percent in just one statewide survey, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetrafalgargroup.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/IA-GOP-Caucus-Poll-Report-0818.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">mid-August poll of Iowa from Trafalgar Group<\/a>. Now, Burgum\u2019s campaign may argue that he\u2019s hit 3 percent in New Hampshire, based on either the 2.5 percent he garnered in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetrafalgargroup.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/NH-GOP-PPP-Poll-Report-0818.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">another mid-August Trafalgar poll<\/a> or the 4 percent he attained in <a href=\"https:\/\/nhjournal.com\/exclusive-poll-trump-holds-big-lead-in-nh-desantis-drops-to-tie-with-christie\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">an early-August poll from co\/efficient<\/a> on behalf of the New Hampshire Journal. We can\u2019t rule out that the RNC might count the second Trafalgar poll, although <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/first-republican-debate-deadline-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the RNC showed no indication that it was willing to round poll results<\/a> reported with decimal places during qualification for the first debate. However, because co\/efficient <a href=\"https:\/\/www.semafor.com\/article\/08\/29\/2023\/internal-post-debate-poll-shows-trump-up-39-points-on-desantis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">has polled for Trump this cycle<\/a>, its New Hampshire survey won\u2019t count <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gop.com\/press-release\/rnc-announces-criteria-and-date-for-first-debate-in-milwaukee\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">under the RNC polling rule<\/a> that <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FrancisSuarez\/status\/1694072480925663426\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">excludes polls conducted by organizations affiliated<\/a> with a candidate or candidate committee.<\/p>\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Yet regardless of whether he has polls from one or two early states, Burgum has struggled to hit the 3 percent mark in national surveys. It\u2019s no wonder that Best of America PAC, a super PAC supporting Burgum, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/08\/30\/burgum-super-pac-ad-campaign-second-debate-00113472\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reserved $4 million in ads<\/a> between Aug. 30 and Sept. 24. However, there\u2019s not much evidence this has boosted Burgum: The most prolific national pollster, <a href=\"https:\/\/pro.morningconsult.com\/trackers\/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Morning Consult<\/a>, has released data for seven nationwide surveys since Aug. 1, but Burgum garnered more than 0 percent just once, <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.ph\/nhPbH\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hitting 1 percent in a mid-August poll<\/a> that predated the super PAC\u2019s ad buy. In fact, Burgum has reached 2 percent in just one national poll that sampled at least 800 likely Republican voters since Aug. 1, a <a href=\"https:\/\/kaplanstrategies.com\/2023\/08\/28\/post-debatee-gop-poll\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kaplan Strategies survey<\/a> conducted right after the first debate.<\/p>\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Meanwhile, Hutchinson needs both more polls <em>and <\/em>donors to make the stage, although he seems likely to reach the 50,000 contributor mark. Last week, a campaign spokesperson told ABC News that Hutchinson is \u201cvery close\u201d to the donor requirement, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/08\/22\/text-for-pay-campaign-asa-hutchinson-00112298\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">he did get a last-minute surge in contributors<\/a> to qualify for the first debate. On the polling front, Hutchinson has something Burgum doesn\u2019t: one national poll of 3 percent or better, thanks to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scribd.com\/document\/665970001\/National-Republican-Polling#\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a Kaplan Strategies survey taken before the first debate<\/a>. But Hutchinson hasn\u2019t exceeded 1 percent in any potentially eligible nationwide poll conducted since the first debate. And he\u2019s done no better in early state surveys, making it unlikely that he\u2019ll get qualifying polls from two different states to combine with his one national survey to meet the RNC\u2019s other polling qualification route.<\/p>\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">It\u2019s difficult to imagine any other Republican will have a shot at qualifying for the September debate. Former Texas Rep. Will Hurd appears to have one qualifying poll from New Hampshire \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/echeloninsights.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/RMSP-New-Hampshire-Republican-Primary-Voter-Survey-Topline.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a mid-August Echelon Insights\/Republican Main Street Partnership survey<\/a> \u2014 but like Burgum and Hutchinson, he has struggled to clear 1 percent in most surveys. And while Hurd <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/08\/22\/republican-debate-2024-participants-00112282\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">could get to the 50,000 donor mark<\/a>, his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/meet-the-press\/meetthepressblog\/hurd-says-wont-sign-gop-loyalty-pledge-risking-debate-participation-rcna90798\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">public refusal to consider signing the RNC\u2019s pledge<\/a> nearly guarantees that he won\u2019t make the stage. Additionally, businessman Perry Johnson and radio host Larry Elder came close to qualifying for the first debate, and both <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4164493-elder-johnson-planning-to-sue-rnc-after-failing-to-make-first-primary-debate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">have threatened legal action<\/a> against the RNC <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/08\/22\/republican-debate-2024-participants-00112282\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">alleging that<\/a> it unfairly kept them off the stage. But even if Johnson and\/or Elder can get to 50,000 donors \u2014 Johnson <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ZachMontellaro\/status\/1691447602594844672?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">claimed to have that many<\/a> in mid-August \u2014 neither candidate has a qualifying poll to his name.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"fte-single-story-promo fte-single-story-promo--full\">\n<div class=\"fte-single-story-promo__story\">\n<div class=\"fte-single-story-promo__media\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a target=\"_BLANK\" href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/americans-oppose-biden-impeachment-house-republicans\/\" class=\"post-thumbnail\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"fte-single-story-promo__image-wrapper\"><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"538_Hunter_Joe_Biden_091423_POLLA_v01_ks-4\u00d73\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/538_Hunter_Joe_Biden_091423_POLLA_v01_ks-4x3-1.jpg?w=300 1x, https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/538_Hunter_Joe_Biden_091423_POLLA_v01_ks-4x3-1.jpg?w=600 2x\" class=\"\" sizes=\"auto, 100vw\" data-sizes=\"100vw\" src=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/538_Hunter_Joe_Biden_091423_POLLA_v01_ks-4x3-1.jpg?w=300\"\/><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span><br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<aside id=\"fte-single-story-promo-multi\" class=\"fte-recommended-articles\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n<\/aside>\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">Lastly, Trump\u2019s presence \u2014 or lack thereof \u2014 looms over the debate process. The former president is polling above 50 percent in <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/president-primary-r\/2024\/national\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FiveThirtyEight\u2019s national average<\/a>, making him a <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/we-analyzed-40-years-of-primary-polls-even-early-on-theyre-fairly-predictive\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">clear favorite to win the GOP nomination<\/a>. Yet while Trump\u2019s average fell slightly after the first debate, it has essentially recovered to its pre-debate position, suggesting voters didn\u2019t really penalize him for skipping the event. It\u2019s no wonder, then, that <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/4194837-trump-stirs-speculation-over-second-gop-debate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">he seems intent on skipping the second debate<\/a> and holding counterprogramming that evening, just as he did for the first debate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/2024-election\/trumps-debate-counterprogramming-got-weird-rcna101452\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">when a pre-taped interview<\/a> between Trump and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson aired at the same time.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p data-paragraph=\"main\">With Trump\u2019s likely absence, the second debate is once again setting up to be a clash among the party\u2019s leading alternatives, none of whom seem positioned to mount a significant challenge to Trump. Still, it\u2019s critical for these candidates to make the debate stage, as failing to qualify could signal to donors that their campaigns truly have no chance of success. Moreover, without Trump holding the spotlight, the debate will provide the other Republican contenders with an opportunity <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/08\/24\/fox-news-viewers-republican-debate-00112886\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">to be seen and heard by a large audience<\/a>. That is a chance the candidates don\u2019t want to squander, as a sterling debate performance could \u2014 <em>could<\/em> \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/fivethirtyeight.com\/features\/presidential-primary-debates-can-make-and-break-a-campaign\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">shift the course of their campaign<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eight Republican candidates participated in the party\u2019s first primary debate in August. But the stage could feature fewer contenders when the GOP holds its next debate later this month. Joshua Lott \/ The Washington Post via Getty Images The second Republican presidential primary debate is less than two weeks away, so time is running out [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":342654,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[166136,166137,166138,166139,166140,101215,166141,166142,166143,166144,155767,166145,166146],"tags":[11204,36588,17070,1175],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-342653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2024-republican-debates","category-2024-republican-primary","category-asa-hutchinson","category-chris-christie","category-debates","category-donald-trump","category-doug-burgum","category-mike-pence","category-nikki-haley","category-republican-national-committee","category-ron-desantis","category-tim-scott","category-vivek-ramaswamy","tag-debate","tag-gop","tag-smaller","tag-trump"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=342653\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Eight Republican candidates participated in the party\u2019s first primary debate in August. But the stage could feature fewer contenders when the GOP holds its next debate later this month. Joshua Lott \/ The Washington Post via Getty Images The second Republican presidential primary debate is less than two weeks away, so time is running out [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=342653\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-13T21:33:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/second-debate-check-in_16x9.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"712\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"383\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=342653#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=342653\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/b85e3c3dc0e1daea076524dc8810c371\"},\"headline\":\"The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-13T21:33:45+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=342653\"},\"wordCount\":1470,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=342653#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/second-debate-check-in_16x9.jpeg\",\"keywords\":[\"debate\",\"GOP\",\"Smaller\",\"Trump\"],\"articleSection\":[\"2024 Republican Debates\",\"2024 Republican Primary\",\"Asa Hutchinson\",\"Chris Christie\",\"Debates\",\"Donald Trump\",\"Doug Burgum\",\"Mike Pence\",\"Nikki Haley\",\"Republican National Committee\",\"Ron DeSantis\",\"Tim Scott\",\"Vivek Ramaswamy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=342653#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=342653\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=342653\",\"name\":\"The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump - 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