nostalgia comes from John Hodgman<\/a>: \u201cNormally I consider nostalgia to be a toxic impulse. It is the twinned, yearning delusion that (a) the past was better (it wasn\u2019t) and (b) it can be recaptured (it can\u2019t) \u2026\u201d<\/p>\nKey takeaways going forward:<\/strong><\/p>\n\nBuyers<\/strong>: Patience may be your friend. But, be prepared to make your decision to buy\/not buy efficiently; better to quickly decide not to offer than to see the house go under contract before you\u2019ve made time to see and evaluate the house.<\/li>\nSellers<\/strong>: More than you may have ever experienced, pricing and preparation matter. Excellent data and market analysis is critical.<\/li>\nComps<\/strong>: When evaluating homes, we obviously look at sold comps. Now we also look at the withdrawn and expired listings and the active competition that is both under contract or not. Yesterday matters less than today and tomorrow.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\n\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Days on Market \u2013 used to be noise. Now they matter<\/h3>\n During the early days of the Covid market, the timeline was simple:<\/p>\n
\nPrep, photos, floorplans, etc.<\/li>\n Coming soon in MLS on Monday.<\/li>\n Showings start Thursday or Friday<\/li>\n Sellers evaluate the offers on Monday.<\/li>\n Days on market were noise; now days on market are meaningful.\n\nIn Charlottesville + Albemarle from 1\/1\/2021 to 12\/31\/2024, 5,038 resale homes went under contract, median days on market were 6 \u2014 Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, then under contract on Tuesday.<\/li>\n Year to date, 1,440 have had ratified contract in the MLS. Median days on market is 12. 653 since 6\/1\/25. Median DOM is 23; also 23 since 9\/1\/25.<\/li>\n 6 to 23 is a huge shift; speed is no longer guaranteed.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\n\n
Imagine if we had sidewalks and bike lanes.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
The market right now<\/h4>\n A quick look at this tiny window of resale homes in the MLS from 10\/01 to 12\/09 in Charlottesville + Albemarle<\/p>\n
\nNew listings:<\/strong> 264 this year; 277 last year. Fewer new listings.<\/li>\nNew contracts<\/strong>: 259 this year with median days on market of 30<\/strong> and median price of $517,000. Last year: 261 contracts, 20<\/strong> days on market, and median price of $528,000.<\/li>\nAnd the solds<\/strong>, reflecting contract activity about 45-75 days prior. This year: 281 sold, 23 days on market, median price of $552,000. Last year: 272, 14 days on market, $540,000 was the median price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\n\n
This is a light \u201cswitch.\u201d Literally impossible to use (activate) in the dark.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
Four Things I\u2019m watching now and in 2026<\/h3>\n\nDe-listings, and anticipating re-listings<\/strong>. We\u2019re seeing more de-listings than I recall ever seeing. 125 withdrawn this year so far. There were 17 last year. Is this a great way to evaluate this segment? I think it\u2019s good enough. If 100 of those 125 come on the market next year, they will meaningfully affect the market, especially if they come on at lower prices.<\/li>\nPrice reductions and patience<\/strong>. How motivated might the sellers be? How patient will buyers be now that they have choices and options?<\/li>\nContracts and days on market<\/strong>. Did you know there\u2019s a movement among a big national brokerage or two to remove public display of days on market? Yeah, insane. How fast do homes go under contract? And how many price reductions are necessary?<\/li>\nNew listings<\/strong>: When did they purchase and for how much? This is a big one. For the people whose only experience in residential real estate is setting the price based on what they want\/need to make, a market based more on data is a huge shift. Think about it: if you bought in 2017, sold in 2023 and made a big profit and bought another house, and life happens in 2026, you might not be able to sell without losing money. That\u2019s a monumental change, which may lead to lower inventory because these sellers may choose to stay or rent. (What are the sellers\u2019 expectations likely to be?)\n\n
\n\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
2026 quick thoughts<\/h4>\n Headwinds<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\nSellers\u2019 expectations. Say they bought for $600K in 2002 and are ready to move and want to make $750K in order take the next steps. But their neighbor just came on the market at $699K. What are they going to do? Price at $750K and hope for an offer? Plan to reduce after 30 days? Choose to stay? Can they afford to keep the house, rent it, and buy the next place? Or rent wherever they are going? Related: Sellers\u2019 anchors to high prices.<\/li>\n Buyers: fear is not your friend. Buying for under 3 to 5 years? Might not be the ideal time to buy. If you buy your house for $675K tomorrow, and it\u2019s worth $650K in two months, who cares, if you\u2019re not selling? But if you do need to sell, choices will need to be made. Related: *Where* is the Home, Not Necessarily *What* is the Home<\/li>\n The economy and the lack of data. This is big. We need data. Can you imagine a world without a central database of home listings we use to evaluate home prices? Now imagine that for the American economy.The willful, deliberate, and strategic destruction of data collection and distribution by the federal government is unspeakably damaging and in any other world would be criminal. How is anyone supposed to make reasonable, logical decision in a vacuum? Vibes?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nTailwinds<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\nPeople need housing and shelter.<\/li>\n Mortgage rates are reasonable.<\/li>\n UVA remains the core of the Central Virginia economy.<\/li>\n NGIC and DIA remain.<\/li>\n Astra-Zeneca<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nThe year the buyers\u2019 market returns. Maybe. I\u2019ll confirm in 2027 what happens in 2026. And writing 2027 feels like I\u2019m writing a make believe number.<\/p>\n
2026 might be the year that the market shifts to a buyer\u2019s market.<\/p>\n
\n
\n\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\n
If any of these spark questions about your situation, hit reply.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
What I\u2019m Reading<\/h3>\n\nHousing & Market Shifts<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\nThese are a fraction of what I read about the local, regional, national real estate markets.<\/p>\n
\nWork, Humans, and Technology<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n3. Places, Climate, and How We Live<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\nCuriosities & Tangents (Always the Fun Stuff)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\nWhat I\u2019m Listening To<\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" December. This is a market-heavy note. Tuck in, please ask questions, and if you think a friend would find this interesting, please share with them. This month: gratitude, trust, looking forward, noisy days on market, four things I\u2019m watching, head and tail winds. First, a reflection of gratitude. I have a lot to be grateful […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":341255,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[99],"tags":[14422,3764,30483,20720,9319,629],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-341254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-estate","tag-buyers","tag-december","tag-jims","tag-note","tag-turn","tag-year"],"yoast_head":"\n
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