{"id":340603,"date":"2025-12-12T15:51:41","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T15:51:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/irregular-roundup-20th-may-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-12-12T15:51:41","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T15:51:41","slug":"irregular-roundup-20th-may-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=340603","title":{"rendered":"Irregular Roundup, 20th May 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div wp_automatic_readability=\"206.66909223213\">\n<p>We begin today\u2019s Irregular Roundup with small caps.<\/p>\n<h6><span id=\"Small_caps\">Small caps<\/span><\/h6>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth.jpg\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1178892429\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-3734\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth-230x300.jpg\" alt=\"Robin Wigglesworth\" width=\"230\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth-230x300.jpg 230w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth-18x24.jpg 18w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth-28x36.jpg 28w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth-37x48.jpg 37w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 230px) 100vw, 230px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-3734\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth-230x300.jpg\" alt=\"Robin Wigglesworth\" width=\"230\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth-230x300.jpg 230w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth-18x24.jpg 18w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth-28x36.jpg 28w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth-37x48.jpg 37w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/RobinWigglesworth.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 230px) 100vw, 230px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>For FT Alphaville, Robin Wigglesworth looked at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/abfbf19e-f963-4c1b-b69e-7bef8896e8cd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">small caps<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Small stocks are riskier, so they should outperform over the long run.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But does the size factor still work?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/US-Small-cap-returns-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1491372628\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43456\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/US-Small-cap-returns-7-Circles-300x216.png\" alt=\"US Small cap returns (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"216\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/US-Small-cap-returns-7-Circles-300x216.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/US-Small-cap-returns-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43456\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/US-Small-cap-returns-7-Circles-300x216.png\" alt=\"US Small cap returns (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"216\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/US-Small-cap-returns-7-Circles-300x216.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/US-Small-cap-returns-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Not in the US, since 1978.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The chart excludes <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Part of a company's post-tax profits that are distributed to shareholders.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/dividends\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">dividends<\/a>, but larger companies tend to have higher <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Part of a company's post-tax profits that are distributed to shareholders.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/dividends\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">dividends<\/a>, so including them would only make things worse.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Perhaps it\u2019s because of the dominance of US large caps (tech).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-small-caps-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1955058489\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43457\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-small-caps-7-Circles-300x219.png\" alt=\"UK small caps (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"219\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-small-caps-7-Circles-300x219.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-small-caps-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43457\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-small-caps-7-Circles-300x219.png\" alt=\"UK small caps (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"219\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-small-caps-7-Circles-300x219.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-small-caps-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Certainly, the effect is still there in the UK.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Europe-small-caps-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1636294888\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43458\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Europe-small-caps-7-Circles-300x219.png\" alt=\"Europe small caps (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"219\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Europe-small-caps-7-Circles-300x219.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Europe-small-caps-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43458\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Europe-small-caps-7-Circles-300x219.png\" alt=\"Europe small caps (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"219\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Europe-small-caps-7-Circles-300x219.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Europe-small-caps-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And in Europe.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Japan-small-caps-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"2045150142\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43459\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Japan-small-caps-7-Circles-300x217.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Japan-small-caps-7-Circles-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Japan-small-caps-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43459\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Japan-small-caps-7-Circles-300x217.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Japan-small-caps-7-Circles-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Japan-small-caps-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And in Japan.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/EM-small-caps-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"81553293\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43460\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/EM-small-caps-7-Circles-300x220.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"220\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/EM-small-caps-7-Circles-300x220.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/EM-small-caps-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43460\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/EM-small-caps-7-Circles-300x220.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"220\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/EM-small-caps-7-Circles-300x220.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/EM-small-caps-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And in Emerging Markets.<\/p>\n<p>But the US is so big that even one broken market is a problem for the small-cap \u201cindustry\u201d:<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"7\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Of the almost $1.7tn invested in dedicated small and mid-cap funds globally, nearly $1.3tn of it is invested solely in the US.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<hr\/>\n<p>The industry got started with a 1980 article in Fortune called \u201cGiant Payoffs from Midget Stocks\u201d.<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"11\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The article was based on research by a PhD student at the University of Chicago called Rolf Banz. Between 1926 and 1975, the average annual rate of return from large US stocks was 8.8 per cent, while smaller ones averaged 11.6 per cent. Even when you adjusted for their different volatility, small-caps performed better.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Along with value and <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;&lt;b&gt;momentum&lt;\/b&gt; is the empirically observed tendency for rising asset prices to rise further, and falling prices to keep falling&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/momentum\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">momentum<\/a>, small size is one of the core factors for equity outperformance, with a logical explanation:<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"10\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Tomorrow\u2019s big stocks are today\u2019s small stocks. They\u2019re often faster-growing, more nimble, more innovative, under-covered and under-appreciated, and therefore should perform better\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Of course, factors don\u2019t work all the time (value has been pretty bad since the 2008 crisis), so perhaps this is just a blip.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>But then why is it just a US phenomenon?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The obvious point is the one made above \u2013 the dominance of US tech stocks.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>But it could also be higher <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Charge paid by borrower to lender for the use of money.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/interest\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">interest<\/a> rates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"16.419795221843\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Smaller companies are hurt more by higher <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Charge paid by borrower to lender for the use of money.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/interest\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">interest<\/a> rates, because of their greater relative debt burden \u2014 their aggregate net debt currently stands at more than three times earnings, compared with under two times for large companies.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">While larger US companies mostly borrow long term at fixed rates through the <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Debt instrument issued by a government or company to raise money; pays regular interest with the original capital returned at maturity.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/bond\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">bond<\/a> market, smaller companies carry more floating-rate debt, which has become much more costly. They also have debt coming due over the next year. If <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Charge paid by borrower to lender for the use of money.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/interest\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">interest<\/a> rates stay at their current level, it will translate into a 32 per cent hit to earnings over the next five years.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Russell-2000-debt-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1297040994\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43461\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Russell-2000-debt-7-Circles-300x232.png\" alt=\"Russell 2000 debt (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"232\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Russell-2000-debt-7-Circles-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Russell-2000-debt-7-Circles.png 994w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43461\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Russell-2000-debt-7-Circles-300x232.png\" alt=\"Russell 2000 debt (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"232\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Russell-2000-debt-7-Circles-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Russell-2000-debt-7-Circles.png 994w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Robin has four ore explanations: indexing, quality, <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Price to Earnings ratio - an equity valuation measure that compares the stock price to the (per share) earnings of the company. Can be trailing (using last years earnings) or forward (using estimates of next year's earnings).[PE can also refer to Private Equity - shares in companies that are not traded on a stock exchange.]&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/pe\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">PE<\/a> and coverage.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/DFA-Russell-portfolio-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1932129163\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43462\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/DFA-Russell-portfolio-7-Circles-300x169.png\" alt=\"DFA Russell portfolio (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/DFA-Russell-portfolio-7-Circles-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/DFA-Russell-portfolio-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43462\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/DFA-Russell-portfolio-7-Circles-300x169.png\" alt=\"DFA Russell portfolio (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/DFA-Russell-portfolio-7-Circles-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/DFA-Russell-portfolio-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"8\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Dimensional Fund Advisors started a small-caps index fund based on the theory that smaller stocks helped investors diversify their exposures. But this fund has done noticeably better than its Russell 2000 benchmark, despite being basically a passive fund.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The Russell indices are formulaic and are reconstituted once a year.<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"10\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Hedge funds and trading firms will try to front-run weighting changes, demotions and promotions. Moreover, the massive surge of trading \u2014 the Russell reconstitution day is reliably the most hyperactive stock market day every year \u2014 means volatility and heightened transaction costs for small-cap funds that have to rebalance on the day.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>This leads to a headwind of 0.86% pa for the index.<\/p>\n<p>The second issue is deteriorating quality:<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"7\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The five-year growth rate of the Russell 2000\u2019s earnings per share has been 14.4 per cent, compared with the large-cap Russell 1000\u2019s 15.23 per cent.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>But profits are disappearing:<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"7\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Almost a third of all Russell 2000 companies are now unprofitable, compared with about 5 per cent two decades ago.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AIMification-of-Russell-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1360187452\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43464\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AIMification-of-Russell-7-Circles-300x219.png\" alt=\"AIMification of Russell (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"219\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AIMification-of-Russell-7-Circles-300x219.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AIMification-of-Russell-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43464\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AIMification-of-Russell-7-Circles-300x219.png\" alt=\"AIMification of Russell (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"219\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AIMification-of-Russell-7-Circles-300x219.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/AIMification-of-Russell-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This is partly down to compositional changes:<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"12\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Two decades ago healthcare stocks made up about 5 per cent of the benchmark, and most of them were stolid, reliable companies. Today, healthcare accounts for almost 16 per cent of the index, and most are high-risk, unprofitable biotech stocks.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Declining-quality-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1973134238\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43465\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Declining-quality-7-Circles-300x180.png\" alt=\"Declining quality (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"180\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Declining-quality-7-Circles-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Declining-quality-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43465\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Declining-quality-7-Circles-300x180.png\" alt=\"Declining quality (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"180\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Declining-quality-7-Circles-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Declining-quality-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>But even excluding healthcare, quality (as measured by gross profits to assets) has been declining.<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"9\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">If you exclude the tech bubble years, the long-term average net debt to earnings has been about 2 times. Today, it\u2019s more than 3 times. That makes small caps structurally more fragile. It\u2019s basically the slow Aim-ification of the once-vibrant US small caps universe.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Rise-of-PE-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1077267726\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43466\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Rise-of-PE-7-Circles-300x213.png\" alt=\"Rise of PE (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"213\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Rise-of-PE-7-Circles-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Rise-of-PE-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43466\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Rise-of-PE-7-Circles-300x213.png\" alt=\"Rise of PE (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"213\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Rise-of-PE-7-Circles-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Rise-of-PE-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Price to Earnings ratio - an equity valuation measure that compares the stock price to the (per share) earnings of the company. Can be trailing (using last years earnings) or forward (using estimates of next year's earnings).[PE can also refer to Private Equity - shares in companies that are not traded on a stock exchange.]&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/pe\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">PE<\/a> is also an issue.<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"11\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Leveraged buyouts are still mostly a small- and mid-cap phenomenon. And that gives small but fast-growing, ambitious companies an option that didn\u2019t really exist when the small-cap concept was born in the 1980s.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"> It\u2019s much easier to stay private for longer. More IPOs of weaker companies and frequent exits by stronger ones explain much of the membership churn and deteriorating quality of US small caps.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Small caps have less analyst coverage than large caps:<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"7\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The median Russell 2000 stock is only covered by five analysts \u2014 and one in seven has only one analyst or no coverage whatsoever \u2014 compared with the 18 analysts who track the median S&amp;P 500 stock.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>But the gap has closed since the 1980s.<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"6\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">There is far more research and information on smaller US companies than ever before. That means they are not systematically trading at unfairly cheap prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Liquidity in (US) small caps has also improved.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>So it\u2019s likely that some of the small-cap premium is gone forever.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Robin is not optimistic:<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"9\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Just because something is cheap doesn\u2019t mean it can\u2019t stay cheap, or get even cheaper. If this is fundamentally a quality problem, the quality of the Russell 2000 has to improve before its performance does.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h6><span id=\"Retail_ETF_investors\">Retail ETF investors<\/span><\/h6>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement.jpg\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1773472507\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-28171\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-300x270.jpg\" alt=\"Joachim Klement\" width=\"300\" height=\"270\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-300x270.jpg 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-24x22.jpg 24w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-36x32.jpg 36w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-48x43.jpg 48w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-350x315.jpg 350w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-28171\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-300x270.jpg\" alt=\"Joachim Klement\" width=\"300\" height=\"270\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-300x270.jpg 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-24x22.jpg 24w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-36x32.jpg 36w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-48x43.jpg 48w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement-350x315.jpg 350w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Joachim-Klement.jpg 400w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Joachim Klement looked at <a href=\"https:\/\/klementoninvesting.substack.com\/p\/how-retail-etf-investors-screw-themselves\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">the behaviour of retail ETF investors<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"7.744\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The proliferation of <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a> has given retail investors unprecedented access toliquid, low-cost, broadly diversified portfolios.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>But not of inverse and leveraged <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"5\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">[These] complex products have no role to play in a portfolio except to make short-term bet.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>I don\u2019t agree with that, but let\u2019s park it for now.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Retail-ETF-investors-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"1783668767\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43476\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Retail-ETF-investors-7-Circles-300x221.png\" alt=\"Retail ETF investors (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"221\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Retail-ETF-investors-7-Circles-300x221.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Retail-ETF-investors-7-Circles.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43476\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Retail-ETF-investors-7-Circles-300x221.png\" alt=\"Retail ETF investors (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"221\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Retail-ETF-investors-7-Circles-300x221.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Retail-ETF-investors-7-Circles.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>A recent study looked at US <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Exchange traded fund - a basket of assets that tracks an index and is listed on a stock exhange (unlike traditional index funds which are not listed), which means that ETFs can be bought and sold through the trading day. ETFs\u00a0typically have higher liquidity and\u00a0lower running costs that index funds.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf-2\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETF<\/a> trades between 2010 and 2022.<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"6\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Retail investor trading volume has more than doubled to $5.8bn per day. This compares to $52.4bn daily trading volume for non-retail trades. The market share of retail investors is thus 10%.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>That\u2019s higher than I expected.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>And retail investors hold their positions for longer than professional investors.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"6.5708812260536\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Among professional investors a lot of the trading activity is driven by hedge funds and <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Anything that has a \u00a0monetary value (e.g. property, investments, cash).&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/asset\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">asset<\/a> managers using <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a> for tactica ltrades. Retail <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Exchange traded fund - a basket of assets that tracks an index and is listed on a stock exhange (unlike traditional index funds which are not listed), which means that ETFs can be bought and sold through the trading day. ETFs\u00a0typically have higher liquidity and\u00a0lower running costs that index funds.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf-2\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETF<\/a> investors are not day traders. The majority of the <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a> they buy remain in their portfolio for more than a quarter.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The study didn\u2019t look at holding periods longer than that.<\/p>\n<p>The performance picture is not so good:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>For core equity <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a>, retail trails by 0.22% per quarter \u2013 less than 1% pa, so not disastrous.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But for leveraged and inverse <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a>, performance is worse:<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"5.7257142857143\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">On average they underperform the professionals by 3.8% per quarter for leveraged <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a> and 4.2% per quarter for inverse <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a>. That\u2019s about 15% of underperformance annualised!<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>And retail investors use inverse and <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;leverage (gearing) is\u00a0any technique used to multiply gains and losses; usually it involves buying assets with borrowed funds, in the hope that income or\u00a0price appreciation will exceed the cost of borrowing&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/leverage\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">leverage<\/a> <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a> more than professionals:<\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"12.153645833333\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Among retail investors, 12.4% of all trades are in leveraged <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a>. Among professional investors, only 5.5% of all trades are in leveraged <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a>. Similarly, retail investors have 5% excess volume in inverse <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Exchange traded fund - a basket of assets that tracks an index and is listed on a stock exhange (unlike traditional index funds which are not listed), which means that ETFs can be bought and sold through the trading day. ETFs\u00a0typically have higher liquidity and\u00a0lower running costs that index funds.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf-2\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETF<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">21.2% of all retail <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Exchange traded fund - a basket of assets that tracks an index and is listed on a stock exhange (unlike traditional index funds which are not listed), which means that ETFs can be bought and sold through the trading day. ETFs\u00a0typically have higher liquidity and\u00a0lower running costs that index funds.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf-2\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETF<\/a> trades are in leveraged or inverse <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;Exchange traded fund - a basket of assets that tracks an index and is listed on a stock exhange (unlike traditional index funds which are not listed), which means that ETFs can be bought and sold through the trading day. ETFs\u00a0typically have higher liquidity and\u00a0lower running costs that index funds.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf-2\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETF<\/a>. This compares to 28.6% of all trades that are in core equity <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a>. Retail investors gamble too much with <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>This we can agree on, but I\u2019m less convinced by Jochim\u2019s idea that the underperformance is related to the longer holding period and the implication that all these complex products lose money when held for more than a day.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>You certainly need to be careful with them, and I wouldn\u2019t expect them to make up 12% of all trades.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But sensible levels of <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;leverage (gearing) is\u00a0any technique used to multiply gains and losses; usually it involves buying assets with borrowed funds, in the hope that income or\u00a0price appreciation will exceed the cost of borrowing&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/leverage\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">leverage<\/a> (we\u2019re talking about 15% rather than 200%) can be used successfully as part of systematic strategies.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>I think the biggest problem that retail investors have is that they are not systematic.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>They have been trailing professionals for many decades before leveraged and inverse <a class=\"glossaryLink\" aria-describedby=\"tt\" data-cmtooltip=\"&lt;div class=glossaryItemBody&gt;A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs vary in price through the day as they are bought and sold.&lt;\/div&gt;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/glossary\/etf\/\" data-gt-translate-attributes=\"[{\" attribute\":\"data-cmtooltip\",=\"\" \"format\":\"html\"}]\"=\"\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"link\">ETFs<\/a> were available to them.<\/p>\n<h6><span id=\"Overpaid_tax\">Overpaid tax<\/span><\/h6>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Tara-Oconnor.jpg\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"2135207887\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-41881\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Tara-Oconnor-257x300.jpg\" alt=\"Tara O'Connor\" width=\"257\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Tara-Oconnor-257x300.jpg 257w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Tara-Oconnor.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 257px) 100vw, 257px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-41881\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Tara-Oconnor-257x300.jpg\" alt=\"Tara O'Connor\" width=\"257\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Tara-Oconnor-257x300.jpg 257w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Tara-Oconnor.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 257px) 100vw, 257px\"\/><\/a><br \/>For FT Advisor, Tara O\u2019Connor reported that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ftadviser.com\/pensions\/2024\/04\/26\/call-for-system-overhaul-as-hmrc-pays-back-42mn-in-pension-tax\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">\u00a342M in overpaid tax on pensions<\/a> was returned to 13,000 pensioners during 1Q24.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>I am one of those who overpaid, though I won\u2019t get my own refund until I submit my self-assessment, and even then there is typically a six-month delay.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>As we\u2019ve discussed before, your first withdrawal each year (and I only make one UFPLS claim) is taxed using an emergency code which ignores your annual allowances and dumps a lot fo the cash into a higher rate band.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>I could get around the problem by making several withdrawals (so that later applications are processed correctly) but it\u2019s so difficult to make a withdrawal (several forms, including paper, post and signatures in ink) that I can never bothered.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The problem has been highlighted for around a decade, but nobody in the government or HMRC seems to care.<\/p>\n<h6><span id=\"Labour_watch\">Labour watch<\/span><\/h6>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Kate-Andrews.jpg\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"2087187558\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-39706\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Kate-Andrews-257x300.jpg\" alt=\"Kate Andrews\" width=\"257\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Kate-Andrews-257x300.jpg 257w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Kate-Andrews.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 257px) 100vw, 257px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-39706\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Kate-Andrews-257x300.jpg\" alt=\"Kate Andrews\" width=\"257\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Kate-Andrews-257x300.jpg 257w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Kate-Andrews.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 257px) 100vw, 257px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The big news this week was the announcement that Labour would renationalise the railways.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In her Spectator newsletter, Kate Andrews pointed out that:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"11\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Labour\u2019s plan is not much of a plan at all. Rather, it is a list of goals: to eliminate\u00a0 \u2018fragmentation, waste, bureaucracy\u2019, to \u2018bring down costs for taxpayers\u2019 and to \u2018drive-up standards for passengers\u2019. All lofty ambitions; all lacking a strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Better trains for less money? Sign me up.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>On the other hand, I see no reason to believe that the current opposition will be able to deliver this.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The two new associated quangos \u2013 Great British Railways and the Passenger Standards Authority \u2013 point to lower rather than higher efficiency.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>It will be popular, though, especially with people too young to remember the previous incarnation of nationalised services.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Kate provided a handy chart of passenger numbers:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-rail-passenger-numbers-7-Circles.png\" data-slb-active=\"1\" data-slb-asset=\"701753117\" data-slb-internal=\"0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43473\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-rail-passenger-numbers-7-Circles-300x280.png\" alt=\"UK rail passenger numbers (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"280\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-rail-passenger-numbers-7-Circles-300x280.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-rail-passenger-numbers-7-Circles.png 822w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-43473\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-rail-passenger-numbers-7-Circles-300x280.png\" alt=\"UK rail passenger numbers (7 Circles)\" width=\"300\" height=\"280\" srcset=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-rail-passenger-numbers-7-Circles-300x280.png 300w, https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/UK-rail-passenger-numbers-7-Circles.png 822w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote wp_automatic_readability=\"10\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Politicians promise \u2018investment\u2019 in practically every area,but if you follow the direction the money ends up flowing, it (of course) ends up propping up vote-winners such as the National Health Service and the state pension. The story of the past 30 years is a half-hearted attempt to make capital investments which almost always get sidelined<br \/>for more day-to-day spending.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<hr\/>\n<p>Labour has also committed to maintaining the triple lock on the State Pension (SP).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>But the other side of this promise is that in order to keep the cost of the SP down to manageable proportions, the SP age (SPA) needs to rise with life expectancy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Labour has been silent on this issue, but union leaders have called for the planned increase to age 67 (due in 2026) to be scrapped.<\/p>\n<h6><span id=\"Quick_Links\">Quick Links<\/span><\/h6>\n<p>I have just one for you this week:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>John Mauldin started <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/UKFinanceOver30\/comments\/1curmkj\/an_inflation_conversation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">An Inflation Conversation<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Until next time.<\/p>\n<div id=\"author-bio-box\" style=\"background: #f8f8f8; border-top: 2px solid #cccccc; border-bottom: 2px solid #cccccc; color: #4609ff\" wp_automatic_readability=\"9.2715231788079\">\n<h3><a style=\"color: #555555;\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/author\/mikerawson\/\" title=\"All posts by Mike Rawson\" rel=\"author\">Mike Rawson<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"bio-gravatar\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-del=\"avatar\" src=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Author-pic-fix-150x150.jpg\" class=\"avatar pp-user-avatar avatar-100 photo \" height=\"100\" width=\"100\"\/><\/div>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\/\" class=\"bio-icon bio-icon-website\"\/><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/7-Circles-425914570895193\/\" class=\"bio-icon bio-icon-facebook\"\/><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/the7circles.uk\" class=\"bio-icon bio-icon-twitter\"\/><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/plus.google.com\/+The7circlesUk_DIY_investor\/posts\" class=\"bio-icon bio-icon-googleplus\"\/><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/mike-rawson-700897ab\" class=\"bio-icon bio-icon-linkedin\"\/><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/uk.pinterest.com\/miker0992\/\" class=\"bio-icon bio-icon-pinterest\"\/><\/p>\n<p class=\"bio-description\">Mike is the owner of 7 Circles, and a private investor living in London. <\/p>\n<p>He has been managing his own money for 40 years, with some success.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>          <!--\/.pagination-->\n        <\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We begin today\u2019s Irregular Roundup with small caps. Small caps For FT Alphaville, Robin Wigglesworth looked at small caps. Small stocks are riskier, so they should outperform over the long run. But does the size factor still work? Not in the US, since 1978. The chart excludes dividends, but larger companies tend to have higher [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":340604,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[96],"tags":[5595,10699,4098],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-340603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-20th","tag-irregular","tag-roundup"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Irregular Roundup, 20th May 2024 - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=340603\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Irregular Roundup, 20th May 2024 - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We begin today\u2019s Irregular Roundup with small caps. Small caps For FT Alphaville, Robin Wigglesworth looked at small caps. Small stocks are riskier, so they should outperform over the long run. But does the size factor still work? Not in the US, since 1978. 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Small caps For FT Alphaville, Robin Wigglesworth looked at small caps. Small stocks are riskier, so they should outperform over the long run. But does the size factor still work? Not in the US, since 1978. 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