{"id":337952,"date":"2025-12-10T17:33:14","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T17:33:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/uncategorized\/holiday-spending-trends-2025-what-really-happened\/"},"modified":"2025-12-10T17:33:14","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T17:33:14","slug":"holiday-spending-trends-2025-what-really-happened","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=337952","title":{"rendered":"Holiday Spending Trends 2025: What Really Happened"},"content":{"rendered":"


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\"\"Welcome to the last First Friday episode of the year. Today, we\u2019ll dive into an unprecedented moment in the U.S. economy: a missing jobs report, a divided Federal Reserve, a sluggish labor market, and a holiday shopping season shaped by AI, bargain hunters, and low consumer confidence.<\/p>\n

In this episode, we cover:<\/p>\n

Missing Jobs Report & Data Chaos:<\/strong>
Why the Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to publish two months of data, and why October\u2019s numbers will never<\/em> be released.<\/p>\n

ADP Job Losses & Small Business Strain:<\/strong>
The private-sector payroll report shows major job losses \u2014 driven almost entirely by small businesses.<\/p>\n

Fed Rate Decision \u2014 With No Data:<\/strong>
The Fed meets on December 9\u201310, forced to make a call on interest rates without official employment data for two months.<\/p>\n

Holiday Spending Trends:<\/strong>
Record-breaking Cyber Week sales\u2026 paired with declining household budgets and soaring discount-store performance.<\/p>\n

AI-Assisted Shopping:<\/strong>
Over half of consumers used AI to hunt deals, compare options, and track price drops \u2014 making this the most tech-driven holiday season ever.<\/p>\n

Year-End Financial Moves:<\/strong>
Smart steps to take before December 31, including 401(k) contributions, FSA deadlines, tax-loss harvesting, and charitable giving strategies.<\/p>\n

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Key Takeaways<\/strong><\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n

    We\u2019re missing core economic data<\/strong> \u2014 the first time in 12 years a jobs report was delayed, and the first time ever<\/em> a month will remain permanently blank.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Small businesses are hurting the most<\/strong>, with ADP showing 32,000 job losses driven almost entirely by companies under 49 employees.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    The Fed may cut rates<\/strong>, but internal disagreement is unusually public \u2014 something not seen since the early 1980s.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Consumers are pessimistic<\/strong>, spending less per household even as total holiday sales hit record highs.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    AI is now a mainstream shopping tool<\/strong>, influencing 22% of Cyber Week global sales.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Now\u2019s the time for year-end money housekeeping<\/strong>, especially for workplace retirement plans, FSAs, tax planning, and charitable giving.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

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    Resources & Links<\/strong><\/h3>\n
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    Glossary<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    ADP Payroll Report:<\/strong>
    A monthly estimate of private-sector job creation based on payroll data from ADP clients \u2014 often used as a proxy when BLS data is unavailable.<\/p>\n

    JOLTS:<\/strong>
    Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey \u2014 measures job openings, hires, and quits.<\/p>\n

    Consumer Sentiment:<\/strong>
    A gauge of how optimistic or pessimistic households feel about their financial future.<\/p>\n

    Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD):<\/strong>
    A tax-efficient way for people 70\u00bd+ to donate money directly from an IRA to a charity.<\/p>\n

    Tax-Loss Harvesting:<\/strong>
    Selling investments at a loss to offset capital gains.<\/p>\n

    \n

    Timestamps<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    (Timestamps are approximate and may vary due to dynamic ad insertion.<\/em>)<\/p>\n

    02:10 \u2014 Spotify Wrapped for Podcasters: Surprising Listener Overlap
    06:45 \u2014 Why We\u2019re Missing the BLS Jobs Report
    12:30 \u2014 ADP Data: Small Businesses Take the Biggest Hit
    18:55 \u2014 What the Fed Must Decide Without Official Jobs Numbers
    24:40 \u2014 Will Mortgage Rates Finally Fall Below 6%?
    29:15 \u2014 Holiday Spending: Record Sales, Declining Budgets
    35:50 \u2014 Discount Chains Surge as Middle-Market Retail Slumps
    41:20 \u2014 AI-Assisted Shopping: Price Tracking, Bots & Personalized Deals
    46:10 \u2014 Buy Now, Pay Later Hits $10B \u2014 Good or Bad?
    49:55 \u2014 Giving Tuesday\u2019s Big Jump in Donations
    53:20 \u2014 Year-End Financial Moves: 401(k)s, IRAs, FSAs & Tax Moves
    59:00 \u2014 Final Thoughts: What This All Means for Your Money in 2026<\/p>\n

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