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China now has \u201ca world-class Navy,\u201d retired Rear Admiral Mike Studeman, a former Commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence, <\/em>told The Cipher Brief. <\/em><\/em>\u201cIt’s not, \u2018Hey, we’re going to achieve this in 2049.\u2019 And it’s just not in the numbers, it’s in the quality. These ships are modern by any standard.\u201d<\/p>\n The recently commissioned Fujian<\/em><\/em><\/u><\/a> is the first Chinese carrier (and only the second in the world, after the U.S. Gerald R. Ford<\/em><\/em>) to be equipped with electromagnetic catapults for launching aircraft. As for the new amphibious vessel, the Sichuan,<\/em><\/em><\/u><\/a> <\/em>experts have been impressed both by its sophistication and the fact that it was built in just over two years.<\/p>\n Top U.S. Navy officials are taking note. On an Asia-Pacific tour last month, Admiral Daryl Caudle, the U.S. Chief of Naval Operations, acknowledged the new carrier and assault ship and the overall \u201cimpressive\u201d growth of China\u2019s Navy.<\/p>\n \u201cHow they utilize those aircraft carriers globally is, of course, a concern of mine,\u201d Adm. Caudle<\/u><\/a> said in Japan. As for the Sichuan <\/em><\/em>assault vessel, Adm. Caudle said, \u201cWe\u2019ll watch that very closely and see what they\u2019re going to do there. That\u2019s a large ship, very capable.\u201d<\/p>\n Experts say the recent milestones are the latest evidence of gains that have seen China\u2019s Navy surpass the U.S. fleet in overall numbers while boosting the quality of its vessels as well. <\/p>\n \u201cIt’s impressive,\u201d former Rear Admiral, Mark Montgomery, told The Cipher Brief<\/em><\/em>. \u201cThey’re building a hundred merchant ships for every one we build, and two warships for every one we build. And they have quantitatively exceeded the size of our U.S. naval ship numbers.\u201d<\/p>\n Montgomery was quick to add that China\u2019s advances \u201cdon\u2019t mean they have a more capable Navy\u201d than the U.S. In terms of the quality of submarines and destroyers and carriers \u2013 \u201cyour choice, ship class after ship class,\u201d as he put it \u2013 the U.S. remains without peer. But Montgomery and others say that China has rapidly narrowed the quality gap, and already changed the strategic equation for any potential conflict over the South China Sea or Taiwan.<\/p>\n China is \u201cbuilding a lot of ships, but the technological sophistication of those vessels has also significantly increased,\u201d said Matthew Funaiole, Senior Fellow at the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). \u201cThey’re really trying to compete with other countries \u2013 and they obviously have their sights set on the U.S. in terms of maritime dominance in the region.\u201d<\/p>\n The Trump Administration issued<\/u><\/a> an executive order in April to jumpstart the U.S. shipbuilding industry and restore \u201cAmerican maritime dominance,\u201d but experts say the U.S. has work to do to match the urgency of the Chinese buildup. <\/p>\n \u201cThe shipbuilding capacity in China now dwarfs that of the United States,\u201d Emmanouil Karatarakis wrote in a recent analysis<\/u><\/a> for The Cipher Brief<\/em><\/em>. Citing estimates<\/u><\/a> that China’s overall shipbuilding capability (armed and unarmed) is now hundreds of times larger than the U.S.’s, he added, \u201cThis imbalance has far-reaching implications for long-term strategy and wartime readiness.\u201d<\/p>\n Subscriber+Members are invited to join in an exclusive virtual conversation on Monday, December 8 at 2:30p ET on Russia\u2019s Gray Zone Operations in Europe with former leaders from the Department of Defense, CIA, NATO and the British Foreign Office. Members receive links to register via email.<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Not a Subscriber+Member? <\/em><\/strong><\/em>Let\u2019s fix that.<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/u><\/a><\/p>\n China\u2019s maritime rise <\/strong><\/p>\n As with many elements of China\u2019s rise as a global power, this one began in the early 1990s. At the time, China\u2019s Navy was deployed primarily to guard its coastline \u2013 and while precise figures are hard to come by, estimates<\/u><\/a> of its 1990 force range from 350-400 vessels, most of which were small patrol craft. Back then, the PLAN had no modern destroyers or submarines, and when China first put a carrier to water \u2013 in 2012 \u2013 it was a retrofitted Soviet vessel<\/u><\/a> (the ship had actually been built in the 1980s, in the then-Soviet republic of Ukraine).<\/p>\n Today, China\u2019s Navy boasts<\/u><\/a> more than 1,000 vessels, including roughly 370 warships and submarines in what the Pentagon calls<\/u><\/a> China\u2019s \u201cbattle force\u201d capability. The bulk of this rags-to-riches rise in maritime assets has come during the tenure of Xi Jinping. <\/p>\n \u201cXi Jinping has always been clear-eyed about the fact that a great power is a maritime power,\u201d RADM Studeman said. \u201cHe personally understands that China, in order to be the leading power in the world, needs to have a maritime capability bar none. And that’s the course they’re on.\u201d<\/p>\n Beijing has taken advantage of a booming commercial shipbuilding industry and the fact that \u2013 unlike in the U.S. \u2013 the civilian and military sectors in China are intertwined. Shipbuilding was included in the 10 core technologies in Beijing\u2019s \u201cMade in China 2025\u201d industrial strategy<\/u><\/a>, a blueprint for competing with global leaders in key industrial sectors. <\/p>\n A CSIS report<\/u><\/a> offered staggering evidence of China\u2019s maritime rise: the country\u2019s share of global shipbuilding has jumped from 5% in 1999 to roughly 50%, while the U.S. now builds fewer than 1% of commercial ships globally. China\u2019s largest state-owned shipbuilder built more commercial vessels by tonnage in 2024 than the entire U.S. shipbuilding industry had built since the end of World War II.<\/p>\n As for warships, China is now on track to have a 425-ship fleet<\/u><\/a> by 2030, while the U.S. Navy currently has fewer than 300<\/u><\/a> deployable battle-force vessels \u2013 a total which experts worry may drop as aging ships are retired faster than new ones are put to water. \u201cThe growing size and sophistication of China\u2019s Navy, combined with Beijing\u2019s increasing assertiveness,\u201d the CSIS report said, \u201cposes major challenges to U.S. and allied military readiness and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.\u201d <\/p>\n Strategic implications<\/strong><\/p>\n Experts say there are two basic strategic aims behind China\u2019s maritime growth: preparing for potential conflict in the region, and adding a critical element for the country\u2019s projection of global power and influence.<\/p>\n For the latter goal, the Fujian <\/em><\/em>adds a major \u201cchess piece,\u201d as RADM Studeman put it, helping the PLAN expand its growing \u201cblue-water\u201d capabilities and extend its reach well beyond China\u2019s Southeast Asian neighbors.<\/p>\n \u201cThey have been going up into the Bering Sea and parts of the Arctic and Antarctic,\u201d Studeman said. \u201cAnd they’ve been able to expand their footprint and develop their capabilities in an evolutionary way, which has been remarkable to see.\u201d <\/p>\n The new carrier group might also be used in a maritime blockade of Taiwan, global humanitarian missions, and show-of-force deployments far from China\u2019s shores. <\/p>\n \u201cChina wants to have the ability to operate globally,\u201d Funaiole told The Cipher Brief<\/em><\/em>. \u201cI don\u2019t think they want to do the same things the U.S. does, which is to have forward-positioned fleets all over the world. But they do want the ability to operate in different regions that are further and further away from the Chinese mainland, and you need to have a blue-water Navy in order to do that. It’s the key to power projection.\u201d<\/p>\n As far as a potential Taiwan conflict is concerned, the Sichuan <\/em><\/em>\u2013 the newly-minted amphibious vessel, would be the more important \u201cchess piece.\u201d It\u2019s an assault ship built to provide launch platforms for large combat drones, helicopters, and amphibious equipment, according to<\/u><\/a> China\u2019s Ministry of Defense.<\/p>\n \u201cThe carriers are less important for a Taiwan contingency than a lot of the other assets,\u201d Funaiole said. \u201cThe amphibious ships are critical for that being successful.\u201d<\/p>\n RADM Montgomery echoed the point, calling the new carrier group \u201ca muscle flex and power projection,\u201d while noting that the Sichuan <\/em><\/em>and other assets would bring more concrete benefits in a regional conflict. <\/p>\n \u201cThe rest of their Navy [beyond the carrier group] isn’t a muscle flex,\u201d he said. \u201cThis is actually building a capability and capacity to push the United States farther and farther away from the area of crisis and contingency, whether in the East China Sea around the Senkaku [Islands] with Japan, in Taiwan, or in the South China Sea. The idea is to keep our Navy as far away as possible with a mix of missiles, aircraft, submarines, surface ships, all of that.\u201d Those elements have been developed \u201cat close to breakneck speed,\u201d Montgomery said. \u201cThey’ve done a fantastic job of identifying, developing, resourcing and fielding a Navy air and missile force that places the US Navy and US Air Force at risk.\u201d<\/p>\n U.S. Navy commanders have also warned that in the event of a Pacific war, China would be better equipped to replace lost ships \u2013 by virtue of geography and its more efficient shipbuilding. Taiwan war scenarios have shown<\/u><\/a> that China would be able to absorb far heavier warship losses than the U.S.<\/p>\n Save your virtual seat now atThe<\/strong><\/em> <\/strong><\/em>Cyber Initiatives Group<\/em><\/strong><\/em><\/u><\/a> Winter Summit<\/strong><\/em><\/u><\/a> on December 10 from 1p \u2013 4<\/strong><\/em>p ET for expert-led conversations on cyber, AI and the future of national security.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Can the U.S. turn the tide?<\/strong><\/p>\n The White House\u2019s April order, issued under the heading<\/u><\/a> \u201cRestoring America\u2019s Maritime Dominance,\u201d marked a recognition of China\u2019s rise and a high-profile effort to reverse the erosion of U.S. shipbuilding. As The Cipher Brief <\/em><\/em>has <\/em>reported<\/u><\/a>, the order mandates a whole-of-government push to jump-start the domestic shipbuilding industry. <\/p>\n