{"id":335734,"date":"2025-12-09T01:21:55","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T01:21:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/uncategorized\/november-trreb-stats-a-fight-to-the-finish\/"},"modified":"2025-12-09T01:21:55","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T01:21:55","slug":"november-trreb-stats-a-fight-to-the-finish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=335734","title":{"rendered":"November TRREB Stats: A Fight To The Finish"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

Are you familiar with Greek mythology?<\/p>\n

I was, for a period of time.<\/p>\n

It was grade nine, back in 1994.\u00a0 I took a high school course called \u201cClassics,\u201d and we studied Greek mythology, ancient Roman culture, and Homer\u2019s \u201cThe Odyssey\u201d and \u201cThe Iliad.\u201d<\/p>\n

My teacher was Nancy Karrandjas, who was probably the most passionate teacher I ever met in all my years of schooling.<\/p>\n

She made me want to learn.<\/p>\n

I was definitely a keener in grade nine.\u00a0 I\u2019m tempted to say that I was a nerd, but I played every sport there was, so I didn\u2019t fit that \u201cmold\u201d of the classic movie nerd.<\/p>\n

The leap from grade eight to grade nine was massive, in every way.\u00a0 I think we can all agree that it was a leap\u00a0socially<\/em>, but in terms of the course content and the way in which we learned, it was huge.<\/p>\n

Classics<\/em> was a wonderful course, and it led students like me to take Latin<\/em> in grade ten.\u00a0 The people who said, \u201cLatin is a dead language, there\u2019s no reason to study it,\u201d were completely missing the point.\u00a0 Most words in the English language are derived from Latin, so anybody who\u2019s interested in literature, writing, media literacy, and the like would benefit from the study.<\/p>\n

What I loved about Classics was the stories!\u00a0 Fables.\u00a0 Tales.\u00a0\u00a0Myths<\/em>.<\/p>\n

They serve as metaphors that still apply to life today, and I find that to be so incredibly powerful.<\/p>\n

Are you familiar with\u00a0Sisyphus<\/em>?<\/p>\n

Maybe not the name, but surely you\u2019ve seen this before:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Sisyphus is a famous character (or real person?) from Greek mythology, who was punished in a way that was both cruel and tragically ironic at the same time.<\/p>\n

He was sent to the underworld and forced by Hades to push a massive boulder to the top of a hill.\u00a0 But once he reached the top of the hill, the boulder would roll back down to the very bottom.<\/p>\n

Sisyphus\u2019 punishment was to repeat this exercise\u00a0forever<\/em>.<\/p>\n

For all eternity.<\/p>\n

Some would describe the exercise as \u201cfutile,\u201d while others would call it \u201cpointless.\u201d<\/p>\n

I see this as a metaphor for many things in life where a difficult, arduous task is made frustrating by the realization that you\u2019ll eventually have to do it all over again.<\/p>\n

Take the real estate market, for example.<\/p>\n

Every January, we start pushing a proverbial boulder up a hill.<\/p>\n

We start slow and methodical.\u00a0 We look at the horizon ahead and plan accordingly.<\/p>\n

We get some momentum as we move into February, start to look toward the busy spring market, push hard through March, April, and May, and then catch our breath as we move through June, July, and August.\u00a0 Then our final push to the top takes place in September, October, and November, before reaching the summit in December.<\/p>\n

We stand at the top of the hill and look down at where we started.<\/p>\n

But\u00a0then<\/em> what happens?<\/p>\n

Well, the boulder rolls right back to the bottom of the hill, and we start it all\u00a0<\/em>over again in January.<\/p>\n

If you were really sadistic, you could apply this metaphor to every year of your life, but we won\u2019t go there today.<\/p>\n

As it pertains to real estate and the market itself, however, I\u2019ve always felt like we have a seriously Sisyphean element to what we do.\u00a0 My colleagues certainly don\u2019t want to hear this from me, but it doesn\u2019t stop me from mentioning it at least five, six, or eighty times per year\u2026<\/p>\n

With the holidays just around the corner, the real estate market is entering that really odd time of year when market participants start to behave erratically.<\/p>\n

Just last night, Matthew made an offer on a home, listed for $1,100,000, that had been sitting on the market for a month.\u00a0 He and the buyers submitted a bid of $1,070,000.\u00a0 The seller signed it back at $1,250,000.<\/p>\n

That made absolutely no sense.<\/p>\n

But maybe this isn\u2019t\u00a0just\u00a0<\/em>a December thing.\u00a0 Perhaps this is the story of 2025?\u00a0 We\u2019ll discuss this during our \u201cyear-end\u201d posts in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n

Many of the buyers out there right now are looking for deals, and many of the sellers out there are trying to decide if they\u2019ll take a discount in order to move their property before year-end, or whether they want to \u201ctry again\u201d in 2026.<\/p>\n

The fall was a lot slower than people thought it would be, although with the benefit of hindsight, I think there are scores of people ready to offer a massive \u201cI told you so.\u201d<\/p>\n

The November TRREB stats were published on Wednesday, and they lined up exactly how I thought they would.<\/p>\n

The average home price in the GTA declined<\/em> from October to November, now checking in at a modest $1,039,458:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That\u2019s\u00a0low<\/em>.\u00a0 Like, really low.\u00a0 Lower than I thought possible when we started the year with $1,040,994 in January.<\/p>\n

January!<\/p>\n

The start of the year!\u00a0 The boulder at the\u00a0bottom<\/em> of the mountain, just beginning its journey to the top!<\/p>\n

Of course, this is an\u00a0average<\/em> of many different property types, in various price points, and in different geographic locations.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll take a look at how prices have moved in different TRREB districts in a moment.<\/p>\n

But for now, let\u2019s look at that 1.4% month-over-month decline and see if it\u2019s representative of what \u201cusually\u201d happens at this time of year, or whether it\u2019s ahead, or behind\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The\u00a0trend<\/em> is most certainly showing us that the average home price declines every year at this time.<\/p>\n

In fact, only six times in the previous twenty-three years did we see an increase from October to November.<\/p>\n

Compared to 2023 and 2024, the decline was not quite as steep, but if we\u2019re looking from 2017 onwards, where the average movement is -1.7%, it looks as though last month is completely in line with the movement in the last eight years.<\/p>\n

Year-over-year, the average home price is down 6.0%, which is significant!<\/p>\n

Not as significant as the whopping 7.1% that we saw in October, but more than the trend from the previous six months, which was about 4.6%:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

From the chart below, we can see how the year\u00a0started<\/em> in January, with a year-over-year increase, and how the gap between 2024 and 2025 really began to widen this fall:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

As noted above, averages are made up of other averages!<\/p>\n

So let\u2019s look at how the TRREB average decline of 6.0%, year-over-year, is comprised when divided into the five largest TRREB districts:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

This is somewhat as expected, right?<\/p>\n

The 416 is going to lead the 905 in a period of decline, especially after the gains in the 905 during the pandemic in 2020 were so pronounced.<\/p>\n

In terms of\u00a0sales<\/em>, we hit a period in the spring where every month saw the\u00a0lowest<\/em> sales ever in that respective month, but that changed in the fall.<\/p>\n

We saw the\u00a0fourth<\/em>-lowest sales this millennium in September as well as the fourth-lowest in October.<\/p>\n

November did not buck the trend:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Fourth-lowest, yet again.<\/p>\n

But this is after seeing the\u00a0lowest<\/em> in each of February, March, April, and May (removing 2020\u2019s pandemic market), and the second-lowest in June.<\/p>\n

Sales declined from October to November by 18.4%.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the\u00a0largest<\/em> decline in that time period since 2014 as the following chart shows:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Maybe we\u2019re splitting hairs.\u00a0 Maybe we\u2019re looking to be bearish.<\/p>\n

Suffice it to say, sales decline\u00a0every<\/em> October to November without fail.\u00a0 Well, save for 2017, that is\u2026<\/p>\n

New listings dropped from 19,260 in September, to 16,069 in October, down to 11,134 in November.<\/p>\n

Those 11,134 new listings are still the fourth-most in any month of November:<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Listings are down year-over-year, but so were sales.<\/p>\n

However, sales were down 14.7% on a year-over-year basis, and new listings were only down 4.0%.<\/p>\n

That means the absorption rate is going to be lower in 2025 than 2024, which the following chart confirms:<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It\u2019s pretty wild to think about a time when the absorption rate was 89.8%, right?<\/p>\n

That<\/em> was the market in the fall of 2020.<\/p>\n

Demand was at an all-time high, and supply wasn\u2019t quite at an all-time low, but it wasn\u2019t exactly in abundance.<\/p>\n

Looking at the\u00a0bottom<\/em> of this chart, we can see 2008, 2017, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025.<\/p>\n

2008: worldwide financial crisis.<\/p>\n

2017: rolling off the twenty-year peak.<\/p>\n

2022 onward: rolling off the post-COVID peak.<\/p>\n

As for the absorption rate in 2025, November\u2019s 45.0% represents the yearly peak:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Reason for optimism, right?<\/p>\n

Except that, as the following chart shows, the absorption rate increases every year at this time:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

You might wonder why the absorption rate peaks in November and December every year, but it\u2019s a function of how new listings drop off significantly.\u00a0 Sales drop off as well, but not nearly to the same extent as new listings, and that\u2019s why we see the ratio peak.<\/p>\n

Back to sales, just for a moment.<\/p>\n

Throughout 2025, I\u2019ve been predicting that this year would represent \u201cthe lowest sales ever.\u201d<\/p>\n

Coming off a record-high 122,133 sales in 2021, we hit a record-low<\/em> with 66,315 in 2023.<\/p>\n

2024 wasn\u2019t much better with 67,984.<\/p>\n

However, we\u2019re now on pace to set a new record low in 2025:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That estimate is based on the ratio of sales from January through November.<\/p>\n

However, we only saw 3,444 sales in December of 2023 and 3,359 in December of 2024.\u00a0 If we took the higher of those figures and added it to the 59,034 sales to date in 2025, we\u2019d finish the year with only 62,478.<\/p>\n

Either way, we\u2019re going to hit that record low.<\/p>\n

And then, when the year is over, we\u2019ll watch as our boulder rolls all the way back down to the bottom of the hill, and we\u2019ll start pushing it back up again in January.<\/p>\n

Is it just me, or was this year the most\u00a0tiring<\/em> year since the pandemic?<\/p>\n

Have a great weekend, folks!<\/p>\n