Dec. 2, 2025, \u00a9 Leeham News<\/strong>: As aerospace companies, investors, and industry analysts gather in Amsterdam for the second iteration of the annual Future Aero Festival, the attributes and advantages offered by clean-sheet aircraft concepts are in the spotlight. Bjorn Fehrm, analyst and consultant at Leeham Co, believes that an initial early propulsion evolution to come to market will be the so-called \u201cmicro-hybrid\u201d innovation.<\/p>\nThe \u2019next big aircraft program\u2019: a simultaneously inevitable yet somehow elusive concept OEMs and airlines alike are already considering with a view to future operations. Certainly, the scale of the challenge facing aircraft developers is significant.<\/p>\n
From alternative propulsion strategies to entirely clean-sheet designs, industry insiders agree that tomorrow\u2019s airliners are likely to be substantially different from currently operational concepts. But how are these ideas starting to shape up, and what is currently understood about commercial aviation\u2019s future direction?<\/p>\n
An aircraft is a \u201cproduction tool for an airline: it exists to satisfy a certain need,\u201d clarified Nico Buchholz, president and deputy CEO of BermudAir. Although Buchholz has personally participated in the launches, demo flights, and entry into service of more than ten aircraft types, \u201con the other side, we see the slowness\u201d of development, he added.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/strong>Fehrm of Leeham Co believes that a combination of motor, generator, and battery \u201cmakes a lot of sense on turbofans and turbofan engines,\u201d he said, citing complexities with gas turbine acceleration and deceleration. \u201cYou actually have to design the engine a little less efficiently because of that. So, if you have the electrical motor in there to help, you can actually make a more efficient engine.\u201d<\/p>\nCars and airplanes are very different<\/strong><\/h5>\nAlthough there are notable technology parallels between automotive battery advancements and aeronautical applications, \u201ca car case is very different,\u201d said Fehrm. In particular, with no \u2018stop-start\u2019 elements of \u201cstop lights in the sky,\u201d the constant energy requirements mean that \u201chybrid [powertrains] in the sky have a much tougher task.\u201d<\/p>\n
Potential electrification is far from the only consideration. With aircraft development cycles typically running at around nine years, could contemporary advancements in technologies, such as the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) speed up aircraft design and development?<\/p>\n
\u201cIt doesn\u2019t seem very promising,\u201d suggested Fehrm. \u201cOne of the reasons is that for AI to do something consistent and reliable, it needs to train on real data.\u201d However, OEMs are understandably cautious about releasing that proprietary data for applications such as these.<\/p>\n
Incremental advancements in engine efficiency are also unlikely to provide further substantial leaps in performance, with powerplant technology having already addressed what Fehrm termed the \u201clow-hanging fruit.\u201d<\/p>\n
An example of this is the replacement of the V2500 engine (powering the Airbus A320ceo family) with the A320neo\u2019s Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan (GTF). This technological initiative doubled the powerplant\u2019s bypass ratio, increasing the engine\u2019s efficiency. However, Fehrm cautioned that a similar future doubling of bypass ratio can no longer be achieved with a so-called \u2018normal engine,\u2019 necessitating architecture such as the Open Fan concept.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe reason why [developers] are pushing for the Open Fan is that you actually [increase] the bypass ratio six-fold, instead of increasing at half the time what you can do with the turbofan,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n
This, admitted Buchholz, \u201cwould need someone to commit to it,\u201d questioning whether OEMS would be reticent to adopt something \u201cwhere they\u2019re not 100% sure of the maturity\u201d. However, he believes \u201cit will happen, [albeit] in combination with a new [clean-sheet] aircraft.\u201d This combination of engine and airframe is, understandably, of key concern for OEMs.<\/p>\n
Replacing the A320neo and 737 MAX<\/strong><\/h5>\nThe change from the A321 and the Boeing 737 MAX to the next generation of narrowbodies is going to materialize in the form of \u201cchange that has never been done before,\u201d Fehrm said. What are the most significant challenges of such a program? \u00a0\u201cIs it the development cost, which is around $50 billion, perhaps? No, it\u2019s not,\u201d he cautioned.<\/p>\n
Instead, the sheer volumes of aircraft involved present perhaps the most significant obstacle to adopting clean-sheet innovation. At the end of the 2030s, an estimated 20,000 in-service units of the A321 and 737 MAX combined will represent a fleet far surpassing the 1,500 units that Fehrm estimates are usually impacted by a fleet substitution. With expectations necessitating some 1,000 copies a year (or 300 units a month), \u201cthat\u2019s a 30-fold increase,\u201d he stressed.<\/p>\n
Tim Clark\u2019s desire<\/strong><\/h5>\nWhat of the hypothetical Airbus A380neo that Emirates CEO Tim Clark has publicly pushed for? Buchholz believes it ultimately comes down to how a flight schedule is split up, comprised of either \u201cone A380, or two A350s or two [Boeing] 787s. I have the same seat mile cost in both aircraft today. I get a better quality of schedule, I get a better yield, but my profitability is significantly up when I have the two flights versus one flight,\u201d he mused. \u201cIf Airbus would have taken the A350 or 787 engines, they would have saved a couple of percent of fuel. Is that trade-off enough to bring it back? It needs some aerodynamic [attention], and therefore you come to a couple of billion in development costs.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ultimately, what could be the quickest way to bring a new aircraft to market? Buchholz stresses that apart from technical innovation, the supply chain, industrialisation, and product support are all imperative from an operator\u2019s perspective. Fehrm added his opinion that the industry has, on the whole, \u201clost about 10 years.\u201d Despite announcing back in 2014 that its prototype two-seat electric E-Fan aircraft would go into production, this was cancelled just three years later.<\/p>\n
However, with this \u201chype curve\u2026 on the way up,\u201d the future for alternative-propulsion aircraft (such as Beta Technologies\u2019 platform) is looking more positive, he concluded. The nine-seat commuter sector is also likely to be an early beneficiary of advancements in battery technology, which will incrementally increase in range as the technology matures.<\/p>\n
Related<\/em><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bjorn Fehrm (right) discusses the industry\u2019s challenges with Nico Buchholz (left). Credit: Charlotte Bailey, Leeham News. By Charlotte Bailey \u00a0Dec. 2, 2025, \u00a9 Leeham News: As aerospace companies, investors, and industry analysts gather in Amsterdam for the second iteration of the annual Future Aero Festival, the attributes and advantages offered by clean-sheet aircraft concepts are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":327488,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12027],"tags":[71476,14445,7448,5715],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-327487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-airbus","tag-airliners","tag-opportunities","tag-tomorrow","tag-understanding"],"yoast_head":"\n
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