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<\/a> (Beth Clifton collage)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n WELLINGTON, New Zealand\u2013\u2013<\/strong>What most threatens the unique New Zealand bird ecology,\u00a0 an estimated 2.5 million feral cats,\u00a0 or 124 million factory-farmed chickens?<\/p>\n Calling feral cats \u201cstone cold killers,\u201d \u00a0New Zealand conservation minister Tama Potaka in late November 2025 formally added feral cats to the \u201cPredator Free 2050\u201d hit list.<\/p>\n Potaka outlined tactics to be used against cats similar to those used in Australia, \u00a0and already used against brush possums,\u00a0 introduced from Australia in 1837.<\/p>\n Those tactics chiefly rely on broad distribution of poisons,\u00a0 notoriously sodium fluoroacetate,\u00a0 better known by the brand name Compound 1080.<\/p>\n <\/a> Tama Potaka.\u00a0 (Wikipedia photo)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n \u201cCritics worry about ethics and unintended consequences,\u201d\u00a0 reported CNN.\u00a0 \u201cBut support is high: more than 90% of public submissions during a national consultation backed stronger management of feral cats.<\/p>\n \u201cOfficials were clear,\u201d\u00a0 CNN said.\u00a0 \u201cPet cats are not part of this plan. \u00a0The emphasis remains on responsible ownership, \u00a0including microchipping, \u00a0desexing, \u00a0and keeping pets indoors or away from wildlife zones.\u201d<\/p>\n While Potaka\u2019s declaration of war on feral cats made global headlines,\u00a0 in reality it means nothing much new,\u00a0 since the New Zealand government has already been encouraging\u2013\u2013and practicing\u2013\u2013feral cat massacres as part of the national \u201cPredator Free 2020\u201d program for at least 20 years.<\/p>\n Has the sustained high-intensity killing,\u00a0 including cat-killing contests for school children,\u00a0 called off at one point but later resumed,\u00a0 actually accomplished anything to save New Zealand birds?<\/p>\n (See New Zealand exempts cats from killing contest, finds cure for FIP<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n <\/a> Former New Zealand environment minister Maggie Barry, an architect of Predator-Free New Zealand, with endangered kiwi.<\/strong><\/em> Consider this:\u00a0 New Zealand has 94 native bird species not found anywhere else.<\/p>\n Feral cats were first documented in New Zealand in 1819,\u00a0 fifty years after the arrival of the first Europeans.\u00a0 Between then and 1950,\u00a0 New Zealand lost 56 bird species,\u00a0 many of the losses attributed\u2013\u2013rightly or wrongly\u2013\u2013to cat predation.<\/p>\n The extinct species,\u00a0 including all of the extinctions blamed on cats,\u00a0 were mostly already scarce,\u00a0 found almost exclusively in limited island habitats,\u00a0 like Lyall\u2019s wren in 1899,\u00a0 extinct on the New Zealand mainland centuries before any cats arrived.<\/p>\n The last survivors inhabited Stephens Island,\u00a0 only six-tenths of a square mile in size,\u00a0 offering scant opportunity\u2013\u2013if any\u2013\u2013for the Lyall\u2019s wren population to recover and return to the mainland.<\/p>\n <\/a> (Beth Clifton collage)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n Also occurring between 1819 and the early 20th century,\u00a0 the introduction to New Zealand of cattle,\u00a0 sheep,\u00a0 and goat farming,\u00a0 the construction of cities and transportation infrastructure,\u00a0 and industrialization completely transformed the habitat.<\/p>\n New Zealand had previously been isolated from outside influence for circa 82 million years:\u00a0 since 20 million years before an asteroid killed the dinosaurs.<\/p>\n The first humans reached New Zealand,\u00a0 bringing Polynesian rats with them, \u00a0only about 1,000 years before the first Europeans brought the first black rats and Norway rats.<\/p>\n Rats,\u00a0 in absence of cats,\u00a0 stoats,\u00a0 weasels,\u00a0 and any other predators adapted to hunt them,\u00a0 are believed to have caused more New Zealand bird extinctions than all other introduced species combined.<\/p>\n <\/a> (Beth Clifton collage)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n Feral cats,\u00a0 mostly hunting rats and also introduced mice and rabbits, \u00a0\u00a0had already colonized practically all of New Zealand by 1950.<\/p>\n Since 1950,\u00a0 though,\u00a0 New Zealand has not had another documented bird extinction.<\/p>\n Neither has New Zealand experienced an outbreak of the H5N1 avian influenza.\u00a0 But 76 migratory bird species spend parts of each year in New Zealand,\u00a0 including 32 native New Zealand species who visit other places.\u00a0 Any one of those species could potentially bring back H5N1.<\/p>\n What if it did?<\/p>\n <\/a> (Beth Clifton collage)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n Warns the New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries website,\u00a0 \u201cThe H5N1 strain that is spreading around the globe could arrive here through wild birds.<\/p>\n \u201cThe H5N1 strain of bird flu has adapted to wildlife and has caused high numbers of deaths in wild birds overseas.<\/p>\n \u201cIf H5N1 arrives in New Zealand and spreads in the wild bird population, \u00a0it won\u2019t be possible to eradicate it from wild birds and management options will be limited.\u201d<\/p>\n When H5N1 reaches New Zealand,\u00a0 as it surely will,\u00a0 having already been found in bird populations as remote as Antarctica,\u00a0 feral cats\u2013\u2013along with other persecuted non-native bird predators such as stoats,\u00a0 weasels,\u00a0 ferrets,\u00a0 and brush possums\u2013\u2013may be the most effective defense against H5N1 that native New Zealand birds have.<\/p>\n <\/a> (Beth Clifton collage)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n Why?<\/p>\n First of all,\u00a0 because while native New Zealand birds as of 1819 were na\u00efve to the presence of mammalian predators,\u00a0 they have now had 200 years\u2013\u2013more than 200 generations,\u00a0 for most species\u2013\u2013to learn to avoid cats,\u00a0 stoats,\u00a0 weasels,\u00a0 ferrets and brush possums.<\/p>\n Conversely,\u00a0 native New Zealand birds have had no history of responding to H5N1,\u00a0 and very little history of exposure to any avian influenza.\u00a0 The likelihood of H5N1 rapidly cutting through any New Zealand bird species it afflicts could scarcely be higher.<\/p>\n Second,\u00a0 predators are creatures of opportunity,\u00a0 killing primarily the sick, \u00a0the injured,\u00a0 the old,\u00a0 and unattended young.\u00a0 If H5N1 begins dropping native New Zealand birds,\u00a0 a healthy predator population can help to keep the infection from spreading by hunting the potential carriers.<\/p>\n <\/a> (Beth Clifton collage)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n How many potential point sources are there in New Zealand from which an H5N1 outbreak might spread?<\/p>\n Apart from the risk of migratory wild birds infecting other wild birds,\u00a0 New Zealand hosts approximately 165 farms raising chickens for meat,\u00a0 plus another 170 farms raising chickens for eggs.<\/p>\n Beyond that,\u00a0 as many as 50,000 New Zealand households informally keep about half a million chickens,\u00a0 turkeys,\u00a0 ducks,\u00a0 and other poultry for personal use and as pets.<\/p>\n Most of those birds are outdoors much of the time,\u00a0 thereby easily exposed to infectious droppings from any migratory birds bringing H5N1.<\/p>\n <\/a> Brush possums.\u00a0 (Flickr photo)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n Oddly enough,\u00a0 considering the decades-long Australian obsession with killing \u201cnon-native\u201d species other than cattle and sheep in the name of conserving native wildlife,\u00a0 the notion of doing the same\u2013\u2013other than on remote islands\u2013\u2013does not seem to have gripped the New Zealand public imagination until \u201ccelebrity physicist Paul Callaghan popularized the dream of a predator-free country\u201d circa 2011,\u00a0 reported Henri Astier,\u00a0 New Zealand correspondent for BBC News.<\/p>\n The idea \u201cbubbled up and became a national totem,\u201d \u00a0Auckland University biologist and \u201cPredator Free 2050\u201d project advocate James Russell told Astier.<\/p>\n \u201cPoliticians then got on board,\u201d\u00a0 passing a law in 2016 targeting rats,\u00a0 mustelids,\u00a0 and brush possums for extermination,\u00a0 Astier continued.<\/p>\n <\/a> (Beth Clifton collage)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n \u201cPredator Free 2050 Ltd., a public body, \u00a0was set up to channel government and private money into local projects to test eradication strategies,\u201d\u00a0 Astier recounted.<\/p>\n \u201cThe most ambitious of them is Predator Free Wellington. \u00a0In a city of 200,000 people,\u201d\u00a0 which happens to be the New Zealand capital city,\u00a0 \u00a0\u201cit aims to kill off a range of pests, \u00a0notably rats,\u201d\u00a0 who\u2013\u2013once established\u2013\u2013have never been eradicated from any urban habitat worldwide.<\/p>\n The province of Alberta,\u00a0 Canada,\u00a0 including the cities of Edmonton and Calgary,\u00a0 has largely managed to keep rats out,\u00a0 but rats had not yet become established in Alberta when the program started.<\/p>\n Cats were not officially on the New Zealand hit list legislated in 2016,\u00a0 but had already long been targeted by New Zealand economist Gareth Morgan,\u00a0 72.<\/p>\n <\/a> (Beth Clifton collage)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n Dominion Post<\/em> \u201cWorld of Science\u201d columnist Bob Brockie (1932-2025) refuted Morgan on February 4,\u00a0 2013.<\/p>\n \u201cThree acclaimed world experts on animal predator\/prey relationships live, \u00a0or lived in the Hutt Valley,\u201d\u00a0 near Wellington,\u00a0 Brockie began,\u00a0 listing \u201cMike Fitzgerald, \u00a0John Flux and the late John Gibb \u2013 all former population biologists in the now-defunct Department of Scientific Industrial Research.<\/p>\n \u201cThese scientists spent decades investigating feral cats, \u00a0rats and\u00a0rabbits in the Rimutaka bush, \u00a0suburban Melling,\u00a0 and on Wairarapa\u00a0farmland and none would agree with Morgan\u2019s views,\u201d\u00a0 Brockie wrote.<\/p>\n \u201cSetting thousands of traps, \u00a0Fitzgerald calculated the number of\u00a0cats and rats in the Orongorongo Valley for 23 years. \u00a0The cats held\u00a0the rat numbers in check for years, \u00a0but when cat numbers fell, \u00a0the rat\u00a0population shot up. \u00a0The cats also held the riverbed rabbits in check\u00a0and their population also shot up when the cats disappeared,\u201d\u00a0 Brockie summarized.<\/p>\n <\/a> (Beth Clifton collage)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n \u201cFlux logged everything his cat Peng You brought to his Melling house for 17 years. \u00a0The cat brought home 558 little\u00a0victims,\u201d\u00a0 about one per 11 days, \u00a0\u201cwhich included 53 native birds (mainly silvereyes) and 151 foreign birds (such as blackbirds and sparrows).<\/p>\n \u201cPeng You never killed tui or New Zealand pigeons,\u201d\u00a0 Brockie detailed. \u00a0\u201cIndeed, these species established themselves on the Melling property during his time there. \u00a0More to the point, \u00a0Peng You killed 63 rats, \u00a0221 mice, \u00a035 rabbits,\u00a0 and two weasels,\u201d\u00a0 all of them also bird predators or competitors.<\/p>\n \u201cOn balance,\u201d\u00a0 Brockie reported,\u00a0 \u201cFlux thinks his cat,\u00a0 and probably other suburban cats,\u00a0 actually benefited native bird populations by killing so many of their more numerous predators.<\/p>\n \u201cIn a two-year trial in the Wairarapa in the 1960s,\u201d\u00a0 Brockie continued,\u00a0 \u201cGibb showed that cats were more effective than pest destruction boards in controlling rabbits. \u00a0To prove his point,\u00a0 Gibb persuaded the board to stop shooting rabbits on 1,200 hectares of hill pasture and scrub for three years. \u00a0At the end of that time there were fewer rabbits there than on the adjacent shot-over land.\u201d<\/p>\n <\/a> Stoat. (Wikipedia photo)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Despite the efforts of Brockie,\u00a0 Fitzgerald,\u00a0 Flux,\u00a0 and Gibb\u2013\u2013and even Brockie favored using Compound 1080 against brush possums\u2013\u2013the Morgans,\u00a0 Callaghans,\u00a0 and Russells have prevailed to the extent that in 2022,\u00a0 reported CNN correspondent Dhruv Tikekar, \u00a0the New Zealand Department of Conservation \u201claunched a major biosecurity response involving trapping experts, \u00a0dogs, \u00a0trail cameras,\u00a0 helicopters and boats that took eight months to finally trap and kill\u201d a single male stoat seen on one two-square-mile island off Fiordland,\u00a0 at cost of about $300,000.<\/p>\n \u201cPredator-free 2050,\u201d\u00a0 observed Tess McClure for the Guardian<\/em> on September 10, \u00a02023,\u00a0 \u201chas so far only succeeded on offshore islands and fenced sanctuaries, \u00a0but it spurred a vast expansion of expertise in catching and killing furry creatures.<\/p>\nFeral cats can even help to prevent an H5N1 outbreak.\u00a0 Compound 1080 will be useless.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n<\/p>\nEthics & unintended consequences<\/h2>\n
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(Facebook photo)<\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n94 unique native bird species<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n<\/p>\nCattle,\u00a0 sheep,\u00a0 & goats<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n<\/p>\nNo more extinctions since 1950<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\u201cWon\u2019t be possible to eradicate H5N1 from wild birds\u201d<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n<\/p>\nNaive about predators\u2013\u2013& more so to disease<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n<\/p>\nPotential point sources<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n<\/p>\nKilling predators \u201cbecame a national totem\u201d<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n<\/p>\nWellington tries to wipe out rats<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n<\/p>\nThree scientists favored cats<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n<\/p>\nCats \u201cactually benefitted native birds\u201d<\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n$300,000 to kill one stoat<\/h2>\n