{"id":325216,"date":"2025-11-30T22:43:30","date_gmt":"2025-11-30T22:43:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/uncategorized\/is-tlt-about-to-bottom-2nd-skies-trading\/"},"modified":"2025-11-30T22:43:30","modified_gmt":"2025-11-30T22:43:30","slug":"is-tlt-about-to-bottom-2nd-skies-trading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216","title":{"rendered":"Is TLT About to Bottom? \u2013 2nd Skies Trading"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

For 11 of the last 17 weeks, $TLT, the iShares 20+yr treasury bond ETF has sold off and closed bearish. It lost ~16%, dropping from 101.59 to a price (as of this writing) around 85.65. It\u2019s all time low is 80.59 and its 16 year low is 82.50 (Oct 23\u2019). Bond yields have been climbing as of late with the 10yr hitting 4.71%. But the question I\u2019m asking myself is if TLT is about to find a bottom?<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s analyze this potential trade setup using our PFP system<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Options Positioning in $TLT<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Looking at the options positioning in $TLT, we have the TCS (top call strike) at $90, the TGS (top gamma strike) at $85, and the TPS (top put strike) also at $85. This means we have a combo strike at $85, and when I look at the bearish\/put gamma below $85, it drops off massively, suggesting that a plunge lower without adding new open interest might make $TLT oversold.<\/p>\n

Thus from a positioning standpoint, there is the architecture for price to be bottoming.<\/p>\n

Price Action in $TLT<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Looking at the 5min chart below over the last 6 sessions, we can see an overall downtrend with a PBO setup on Jan 6th<\/sup>, followed by an ICI structure on the 7th<\/sup> only to start what may be a FB (false break) forming just above the $85 handle.<\/p>\n

\"TLT<\/p>\n

While we don\u2019t have all the elements for a false break in place, the elements of a \u2018transition\u2019 are forming, suggesting we may be forming a bottom as well, in the price action.<\/p>\n

Option Flows in $TLT<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Overall the option flows in $TLT have been bullish on both fronts today with strong call buying and put selling. This means both call and put flows are bullish. The notional deltas for the day are around +343M which is just shy of the 30 day high of +360M. This tells me there is a lot of bullish flows pumping into this ticker on the day.<\/p>\n

How We\u2019re Trading $TLT<\/strong><\/h3>\n

I\u2019d like to target that $90 TCS strike but I think the Jan op-ex is too close, so I\u2019m going to push for an expiry in Feb. I want to own either the $85 or $86 calls and perhaps buy a bull call spread for at least one month.<\/p>\n

The IV\u2019s are quite workable for Feb so I don\u2019t have to worry about overpaying on the IV\/vol premium. Hence both single leg options and call spreads work for this trade, which gives me the flexibility to tackle it with several strategies.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019d like to see how I\u2019m trading this in real time, you can become a member of the Benzinga Option School<\/a> or Trading Waves<\/a>, get access to my live trades, live classes, and access to me in the live chat between 9am-2pm EST. I hope to see you there soon.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For 11 of the last 17 weeks, $TLT, the iShares 20+yr treasury bond ETF has sold off and closed bearish. It lost ~16%, dropping from 101.59 to a price (as of this writing) around 85.65. It\u2019s all time low is 80.59 and its 16 year low is 82.50 (Oct 23\u2019). Bond yields have been climbing […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":325217,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[152127],"tags":[8451,263,14458,152128,11086],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-325216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-option-trading-and-investing","tag-2nd","tag-bottom","tag-skies","tag-tlt","tag-trading"],"yoast_head":"\nIs TLT About to Bottom? \u2013 2nd Skies Trading - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is TLT About to Bottom? \u2013 2nd Skies Trading - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For 11 of the last 17 weeks, $TLT, the iShares 20+yr treasury bond ETF has sold off and closed bearish. It lost ~16%, dropping from 101.59 to a price (as of this writing) around 85.65. It\u2019s all time low is 80.59 and its 16 year low is 82.50 (Oct 23\u2019). Bond yields have been climbing […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-11-30T22:43:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TLT_2025-01-08_13-19-29.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1835\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/b85e3c3dc0e1daea076524dc8810c371\"},\"headline\":\"Is TLT About to Bottom? \u2013 2nd Skies Trading\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-30T22:43:30+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216\"},\"wordCount\":479,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TLT_2025-01-08_13-19-29.png\",\"keywords\":[\"2nd\",\"BOTTOM\",\"skies\",\"TLT\",\"Trading\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Option Trading and Investing\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216\",\"name\":\"Is TLT About to Bottom? \u2013 2nd Skies Trading - Som2ny Network\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TLT_2025-01-08_13-19-29.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-30T22:43:30+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TLT_2025-01-08_13-19-29.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TLT_2025-01-08_13-19-29.png\",\"width\":1835,\"height\":900},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?bp_activities=1\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Is TLT About to Bottom? \u2013 2nd Skies Trading\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/\",\"name\":\"Som2ny Network\",\"description\":\"Daily Deals\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Som2ny Network\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4a0953c4-logo-300x86-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4a0953c4-logo-300x86-1.png\",\"width\":300,\"height\":86,\"caption\":\"Som2ny Network\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/b85e3c3dc0e1daea076524dc8810c371\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/729ae85bf62b9917e93538db2f2688ca?s=96&r=g&default=https%3A%2F%2Ffivemor.com%2Fwp-content%2Fplugins%2Fbuddypress-first-letter-avatar%2Fimages%2Fdefault%2F96%2Flatin_a.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/729ae85bf62b9917e93538db2f2688ca?s=96&r=g&default=https%3A%2F%2Ffivemor.com%2Fwp-content%2Fplugins%2Fbuddypress-first-letter-avatar%2Fimages%2Fdefault%2F96%2Flatin_a.png\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Is TLT About to Bottom? \u2013 2nd Skies Trading - Som2ny Network","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Is TLT About to Bottom? \u2013 2nd Skies Trading - Som2ny Network","og_description":"For 11 of the last 17 weeks, $TLT, the iShares 20+yr treasury bond ETF has sold off and closed bearish. It lost ~16%, dropping from 101.59 to a price (as of this writing) around 85.65. It\u2019s all time low is 80.59 and its 16 year low is 82.50 (Oct 23\u2019). Bond yields have been climbing […]","og_url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216","og_site_name":"Som2ny Network","article_published_time":"2025-11-30T22:43:30+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1835,"height":900,"url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TLT_2025-01-08_13-19-29.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/b85e3c3dc0e1daea076524dc8810c371"},"headline":"Is TLT About to Bottom? \u2013 2nd Skies Trading","datePublished":"2025-11-30T22:43:30+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216"},"wordCount":479,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TLT_2025-01-08_13-19-29.png","keywords":["2nd","BOTTOM","skies","TLT","Trading"],"articleSection":["Option Trading and Investing"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216","url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216","name":"Is TLT About to Bottom? \u2013 2nd Skies Trading - Som2ny Network","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TLT_2025-01-08_13-19-29.png","datePublished":"2025-11-30T22:43:30+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TLT_2025-01-08_13-19-29.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/TLT_2025-01-08_13-19-29.png","width":1835,"height":900},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=325216#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?bp_activities=1"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Is TLT About to Bottom? \u2013 2nd Skies Trading"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/","name":"Som2ny Network","description":"Daily Deals","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#organization","name":"Som2ny Network","url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4a0953c4-logo-300x86-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4a0953c4-logo-300x86-1.png","width":300,"height":86,"caption":"Som2ny Network"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/b85e3c3dc0e1daea076524dc8810c371","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/729ae85bf62b9917e93538db2f2688ca?s=96&r=g&default=https%3A%2F%2Ffivemor.com%2Fwp-content%2Fplugins%2Fbuddypress-first-letter-avatar%2Fimages%2Fdefault%2F96%2Flatin_a.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/729ae85bf62b9917e93538db2f2688ca?s=96&r=g&default=https%3A%2F%2Ffivemor.com%2Fwp-content%2Fplugins%2Fbuddypress-first-letter-avatar%2Fimages%2Fdefault%2F96%2Flatin_a.png","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/fivemor.com"],"url":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/325216","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=325216"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/325216\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/325217"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=325216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=325216"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=325216"},{"taxonomy":"dealstore","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fdealstore&post=325216"},{"taxonomy":"offerexpiration","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fofferexpiration&post=325216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}