{"id":314963,"date":"2025-11-24T06:37:38","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T06:37:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/investing\/stock-market-outlook-november-23-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-11-24T06:37:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T06:37:38","slug":"stock-market-outlook-november-23-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=314963","title":{"rendered":"Stock Market Outlook \u2013 November 23 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 23rd = Downtrend<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/span>
The stock market outlook shifted to a downtrend last Monday, putting equities into a correction after a gain of more than 20% from the April lows.<\/p>\n

The S&P500 ( $SPX )<\/em><\/a> fell 1.9% last week.\u00a0 The index sits ~2% below the 50-day moving average and ~7% above the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n

The ADX is bearish. Institutional selling ramped up, adding 3 distribution days to the count.\u00a0 But it was Monday\u2019s high volume move through the 50-day moving average that shifted the indicator to bearish and the outlook to a downtrend.<\/p>\n

\"Technical<\/p>\n

SPX Price & Volume Chart for Nov 23 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

PERFORMANCE COMPARISONS<\/strong><\/span>
Healthcare ( $XLV )<\/em> led sectors higher for the third straight week; the only sector showing any real resilience.\u00a0 Energy ( $XLE )<\/em> is the other bullish sector, but it\u2019s still finding its footing.\u00a0 Technology ( $XLK )<\/em> underperformed significantly and dropped to bearish bias.\u00a0 Utilities ( $XLU )<\/em> eased back to neutral.<\/p>\n

\"Weekly<\/p>\n

S&P Sector Performance from Week 47 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Low Beta ( $SPLV )<\/em> outperformed other sector styles, but still lost steam during the week and moved to neutral bias.\u00a0 Momentum ( $MTUM )<\/em> led to the downside.\u00a0\u00a0High Beta, Large and Mega Cap Growth ( $SPHB, $IWF, $OEF )<\/em> moved to bearish bias; Large Cap Value and Quality ( $IWX, $QUAL )<\/em> moved to neutral.<\/p>\n

\"Weekly<\/p>\n

Sector Style Performance from Week 47 of 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Bonds ( $IEF )<\/em> outperformed last week, but all assets have been weaker versus the dollar.\u00a0 The crypto space continues to experience deleveraging, so no surprise that Bitcoin ( $IBIT )<\/em> was the laggard again.<\/p>\n

\"Weekly<\/p>\n

Asset Class Performance from Week 47 2025<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

COMMENTARY<\/strong><\/span>
Institutions were definitely reducing their exposures last week<\/a>, especially on Thursday.\u00a0 Market participants dumped risk-on plays, such as the Technology sector, High Beta\/Momentum sector styles, and cryptocurrency assets.\u00a0 Excluding crypto, those categories are still within 10% of their all time highs, so they\u2019re not priced at a discount just yet ( $SPHB was up ~80% from the April low )<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Last week\u2019s release of FOMC minutes showed that members are divided on how to proceed on interest rates:\u00a0 lower them to help the job market or keep them steady to fight inflation. Equity market participants were pricing in a December rate cut.\u00a0 A less than certain reduced that probability, which may have influenced capital flows last week.<\/p>\n

Although they\u2019re fewer and farther between these days, corrections are normal and actually a welcome aspect of investing.\u00a0 When they occur, investors get a chance to find assets that are \u201ctruly\u201d oversold, or at the very least no longer overbought.<\/p>\n

Corrections aren\u2019t typically \u201cone and done\u201d, meaning there\u2019s usually a retest and then another move lower.\u00a0 We saw this play out earlier in the year, when stocks sold off in February, consolidated in March, then bottomed in April.\u00a0 Perhaps we correct in November, get that Santa Claus rally in December<\/a>, and bottom in January closer to the 200-day moving average.<\/p>\n

Regardless of the narrative, risk-on assets are bearish across a wide range of categories right now.\u00a0 While there are pockets of strength for short-term plays ( e.g. Healthcare )<\/em>, you\u2019ll want to broader participation before making moves.\u00a0 Or at least see the Mag 7 turn around, since they\u2019re so heavily weighted within indexes.<\/p>\n

Over the coming sessions, dust off those watchlists, pick companies with high quality fundamentals with high quality chart patterns, and then look for signs that institutions are back on the buy side: accumulation days ( large daily moves higher on increasing volume ) and price regaining\/remaining above key moving averages ( 21 day and 50 day )<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Next week starts the holiday trading season, with Thursday market closures for thanksgiving in the US.\u00a0 PPI and retail sales on Tuesday, Durable Goods on Wednesday.\u00a0 The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) initially scheduled PCE for Wednesday, but the release has been delayed.<\/p>\n

Best to Your Week!<\/p>\n

P.S. If you find this research helpful, please tell a friend.
If you don\u2019t, tell an enemy.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Hedgeye, Stockcharts.com, TradingEconomics.com, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradingEconomics.com<\/h6>\n\n
Invest Safely, LLC is an independent investment research and online financial media company.\u00a0 Use of Invest Safely, LLC and any other products available through invest-safely.com is subject to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.<\/h6>\n
Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security<\/h6>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stock Market Outlook entering the Week of November 23rd = Downtrend ANALYSISThe stock market outlook shifted to a downtrend last Monday, putting equities into a correction after a gain of more than 20% from the April lows. 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