Less than 10 days till President Donald Trump\u2019s higher \u201creciprocal\u201d tariffs kick back in for most of the world, the U.S. looks like it may emerge with just a handful of trade deals.<\/p>\n
The President shocked the world<\/a> and roiled markets<\/a> on April 2, which he dubbed \u201cLiberation Day,\u201d when he imposed tariffs of as high as 50% on nearly every country, before announcing a 90-day reduction in a stunning reversal<\/a> just a week later. That pause, however, is ending July 9, and Trump said<\/a> in a Sunday interview on Fox News, taped Friday, that he doesn\u2019t intend to extend the deadline\u2014although, he added, \u201cI could, no big deal.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n On Friday, Trump said he could do \u201cwhatever we want\u201d with the deadline. \u201cI\u2019d like to make it shorter. I\u2019d like to just send letters out to everybody, \u2018Congratulations, you\u2019re paying 25%,\u2019\u201d he told<\/a> reporters.\u00a0<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s unpredictable style has earned him the descriptor \u201cTACO\u201d for \u201cTrump Always Chickens Out<\/a>,\u201d while businesses, economists, and investors have criticized him for creating a volatile business environment<\/a>. The President and his officials have countered<\/a> that the uncertainty is all part of a master strategy to achieve better deals<\/a>.<\/p>\n But the level of trade success Trump will have achieved by next week looks to fall short of his goals. Trump\u2019s trade adviser Peter Navarro touted<\/a> \u201c90 deals in 90 days\u201d in April. As the deadline approaches though, others in the Administration are lowering expectations<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re going to do top 10 deals, put them in the right category, and then these other countries will fit behind,\u201d Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said<\/a> on Bloomberg Television last week.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed<\/a> Lutnick on Fox Business on Friday: \u201cIf we can ink 10 or 12 of the important 18\u2014there are another important 20 relationships\u2014then I think we could have trade wrapped up by Labor Day [Sept. 1].\u201d For other \u201csmaller trading partners, we will just send them letters,\u201d Bessent said<\/a> on CNBC.<\/p>\n Japan was one of the first countries to begin trade negotiations with the U.S. after the pause was announced, but talks have been troubled by disagreements over Japan\u2019s policies protecting domestic rice<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cTo show people how spoiled Countries have become with respect to the United States of America, and I have great respect for Japan, they won\u2019t take our RICE, and yet they have a massive rice shortage,\u201d Trump posted<\/a> on Truth Social on Monday. (Japan imports 770,000 metric tons of rice every year without any tariffs, around half of which comes from the U.S.) \u201cIn other words, we\u2019ll just be sending them a letter, and we love having them as a Trading Partner for many years to come.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The \u201cletters\u201d that Trump likes to reference will notify countries of what rate their goods will be tariffed at, which Trump said on Fox News would mark \u201cthe end of the trade deal.\u201d<\/p>\n With some trading partners, Trump\u2019s strong-arm style has won him immediate concessions. Trump railed against Canada on Friday, announcing<\/a> that he was ending trade talks over its proposed digital services tax, which he called<\/a> \u201ca direct and blatant attack on our Country.\u201d On Sunday, Ottawa said it was abandoning<\/a> the tax policy to resume negotiations with Washington in the hopes that it can reach a deal with the U.S. by July 21. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Canada \u201ccaved.\u201d<\/p>\n Similarly, the European Union on Monday reportedly yielded<\/a> to a 10% levy on many of its exports, as it pushes for lower rates on specific key sectors and exemptions to higher tariffs on automobiles as well as steel and aluminum.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n But Trump\u2019s hardball tactics could also sour important U.S. trade relationships, and in the long term push countries to seek alternative trading partners. The E.U., alongside its negotiations with the U.S., is preparing countermeasures to tariff U.S. goods and has stepped up<\/a> discussions with China around their trade relationship<\/a> in recent months.<\/p>\n Jayant Menon, a research fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, previously told TIME that countries will look to diversify their trade and engage with \u201cmore reliable\u201d trading partners. And many have already begun, said Kristina Fong, an economic affairs researcher at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, especially in terms of increasing trade with China. \u201cIt\u2019s a very slow burn kind of momentum, but that\u2019s always been, I think, the underlying case,\u201d Fong told TIME.<\/p>\n Moreover, \u201csmaller trading partners\u201d that haven\u2019t even gotten a seat at the negotiating table are likely to be hit hardest. Trump\u2019s apparent dismissal of these countries, similar to his decision to shutter USAID<\/a>, suggests that he doesn\u2019t see the benefits of having positive relations with them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Many of them were already hit with some of the highest \u201creciprocal\u201d tariffs<\/a> when they were initially announced, and many aren\u2019t in a position to simply purchase more American goods. Lesotho, which was hit with the highest 50% rate, was pessimistic at the outset of the pause, with the country\u2019s trade and industry minister saying<\/a>, \u201cI don\u2019t have a good experience with trying to get meetings with [the Trump Administration].\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ll look at how a country treats us\u2014are they good, are they not so good? Some countries we don\u2019t care, we\u2019ll just send a high number out,\u201d Trump said on Fox News. \u201cCongratulations, we\u2019re allowing you to shop in the United States of America. You\u2019re going to pay a 25% tariff or 35% or 50% or 10%.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWhat does this do long term to trust and confidence [in the U.S.]?\u201d says Mark Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Japan\u2019s Kansai Gaidai University, tells TIME. \u201cYou\u2019re bullying your way to get what you want, and that reduces trust. To a certain extent, parties will assume eventually that they cannot negotiate with the United States because perhaps the United States is not negotiating in good faith.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Countries seeking quick and favorable deals with the U.S. also face a balancing act with China.\u00a0<\/p>\n China has attempted to position itself<\/a> as a reliable and stable partner, in contrast<\/a> with Trump\u2019s erratic style, and to strengthen its relations with other countries. Trump\u2019s tariffs \u201cwere accelerating a trend of Chinese businesses looking more and more overseas,\u201d William Figueroa, an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Groningen, previously told TIME.<\/p>\n China, which signed an agreement with the U.S. in May that temporarily lowered both nations\u2019 levies on each other after an escalating tariff war<\/a>, has warned<\/a> that countries should not reach deals with the U.S. at the expense of China\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n China is on a separate timeline for negotiating with the U.S., with its 90-day pause beginning May 14, though the two countries have already reached a limited deal.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u201cChina firmly opposes any party reaching a deal for so-called tariff reductions at the expense of China\u2019s interests. If that happens, China would never accept it and would take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,\u201d China\u2019s Ministry of Commerce said<\/a> in a statement on Saturday.<\/p>\n \u201cChina is happy to see all parties resolve trade disputes with the US through equal consultations,\u201d the statement added. \u201cAt the same time, we call on them to stand on the side of fairness and justice and firmly defend international and multilateral trade rules.\u201d<\/p>\n Xu Weijun, a researcher with the Institute of Public Policy at the South China University of Technology in Guangzhou, told<\/a> SCMP that Beijing, which has repeatedly called Trump\u2019s tariffs \u201cunilateral bullying,\u201d is watching Trump\u2019s trade talks with caution.<\/p>\n \u201cTrump is an emotionally driven leader with a history of flip-flopping. Beijing knows too well it must prepare for him reneging on commitments or using deals with other countries to extract concessions [from China],\u201d Xu told SCMP.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n But, Xu cautioned: \u201cIf Trump believes the U.S. is losing in a deal or thinks attacking China and stoking nationalist sentiment serves his domestic political agenda, he could easily overturn existing consensus and even scrap signed agreements.\u201d<\/p>\n Trump has boasted about his deals with the U.K.<\/a> and China, but critics say these agreements are not substantive or fail to address some of Trump\u2019s key concerns.<\/p>\n Trade experts suggest that other deals may end up similarly appearing more like broad frameworks with many details left to be worked out later.<\/p>\nTrade talks run into issues<\/h2>\n
China says its interests must be safeguarded<\/h2>\n
Deals may still fall short of expectations<\/h2>\n