{"id":312881,"date":"2025-11-23T04:56:24","date_gmt":"2025-11-23T04:56:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/real-estate\/the-2025-trb-real-estate-prediction-game-fall-update\/"},"modified":"2025-11-23T04:56:24","modified_gmt":"2025-11-23T04:56:24","slug":"the-2025-trb-real-estate-prediction-game-fall-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=312881","title":{"rendered":"The 2025 TRB Real Estate Prediction Game – Fall Update!"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

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Does life\u00a0ever\u00a0<\/em>go the way you think it\u2019s going to?<\/p>\n

Wait, don\u2019t answer that.\u00a0 We can\u2019t risk today\u2019s comments section turning into a therapy session\u2026<\/p>\n

In a few short weeks, I\u2019ll be writing my \u201cyear-end\u201d blog posts, and I can\u2019t believe we\u2019ll be looking back at 2025.\u00a0 It seems like we were just looking\u00a0ahead<\/em> at it.<\/p>\n

I have to wonder, when all is said and done, how many real estate market participants experienced anything close to resembling what they\u00a0thought\u00a0<\/em>they would in 2025.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been anything but dull, that\u2019s for sure!<\/p>\n

Last week, a blog reader asked me to post an updated tally of our TRB Real Estate Prediction game, and I figured this would underscore just how wild a year it\u2019s been.<\/p>\n

For those who aren\u2019t familiar with the game, I posted this in early 2025.<\/p>\n

February 3rd, 2025:\u00a0\u201cThe 2025 TRB Real Estate Prediction Game\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

We did a similar game in 2024, but this year\u2019s game was a bit more aggressive!<\/p>\n

Here are the ten questions in the game:<\/p>\n

\n

1) What will be the average home price for 2025? (point scored if guess is +\/- 2%)
2) Which\u00a0month<\/em>\u00a0of the year will represent the highest average home price? (point scored for correct month)
3) Will any individual month\u2019s average home price top $1,200,000? (point scored for correct Y\/N)
4) How many total sales will there be in 2025? (point scored if guess is +\/- 5%)
5) Which\u00a0month<\/em>\u00a0of the year will represent the highest number of total sales? (point scored for correct month)
6) Will any individual month of the year see more than 8,000 sales? (point scored for correct Y\/N)
7) How many total new listings will there be in 2025? (point stored if guess is +\/- 10%).
8) How many individual months will see more than 20,000 active listings (point scored for correct number)
9) Will any individual month of the year see an average 416 condo price higher than the \u2018peak\u2019 price of $767,064 recorded in May of 2024? (point scored for correct Y\/N)
10) What will the Bank of Canada policy rate be after the last announcement on December 10th, 2025?) (point scored for correct number)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

You can clearly see what was on my mind as we began 2025: sales, prices, inventory, interest rates, and the condo market.<\/p>\n

We have two months left in the year, but I wanted to take my blog reader\u2019s suggestion and provide an update on where our ten questions stand!<\/p>\n

Play along at home, for those of you who entered the game.<\/p>\n

For those who didn\u2019t, pay attention to the intersection of predictions\u00a0<\/em>versus\u00a0reality<\/em>, as I think it really underscores how this year didn\u2019t quite go the way that many thought it would\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

1) What will be the average home price for 2025? (point scored if guess is +\/- 2%)<\/h3>\n

The average sale in each month so far in 2025 is as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
January<\/td>\n$1,040,994<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
February<\/td>\n$1,084,547<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
March<\/td>\n$1,093,254<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
April<\/td>\n$1,107,463<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
May<\/td>\n$1,120,879<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
June<\/td>\n$1,101,691<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
July<\/td>\n$1,051,719<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
August<\/td>\n$1,022,143<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
September<\/td>\n$1,059,377<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October<\/td>\n$1,054,372<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The average price is $1,073,644.<\/p>\n

However,\u00a0we noted in the summer blog post that there are more sales in June than in January, as an example, so we\u2019ll need to look for a weighted<\/em> average.<\/p>\n

The weighted average is $1,075,050.<\/p>\n

That means our \u201crange\u201d for an accurate guess would be from\u00a0$1,053,549\u00a0<\/strong>to\u00a0$1,096,551.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Whereas we had\u00a0five<\/em> of thirty-two contestants with a correct guess in the summer, we now only have\u00a0one<\/em>:<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

That\u2019s wild!<\/p>\n

Derek, Daniel, Quiet Bard, and Hoob lost their point..<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

2) Which\u00a0month<\/em>\u00a0of the year will represent the highest average home price? (point scored for correct month)<\/h3>\n

At this point, the month of\u00a0May<\/em> is our peak at $1,120,879.<\/p>\n

With the average home prices in September and October coming in at $1,059,377 and $1,054,372 respectively, it\u2019s extremely unlikely that we see either of November or December surpass May.<\/p>\n

In that case, the following contestants would get a point:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Derek<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
J-C<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Marina<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JG<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
James S<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ed<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vancouver Keith<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Laurie Hung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

3) Will any individual month\u2019s average home price top $1,200,000? (point scored for correct Y\/N)<\/h3>\n

Based on the information in Question #2 above, we know that this one is most certainly going to be a \u201cno.\u201d<\/p>\n

There were\u00a017<\/strong> contestants who predicted \u201cno\u201d and\u00a015<\/strong> contestants who predicted \u201cyes.\u201d<\/p>\n

The no\u2019s have this one, and the following contestants would, or in this case, most certainly\u00a0will\u00a0<\/em>get a point:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Derek<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daniel<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
J-C<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Marina<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JG<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hoob<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
David Fleming<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oscar<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BEAN<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JF007<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maureen<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sigruper<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vancouver Keith<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
J<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Quiet Bard<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Toad<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

4) How many total sales will there be in 2025? (point scored if guess is +\/- 5%)<\/h3>\n

Who could have possibly predicted this one?<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not meant to be rhetorical, but maybe it is?<\/p>\n

Coming off a 2024 where there were 67,984 sales, which were up from the all-time low of 66,315 in 2023, most of us thought that sales would increase in 2025.<\/p>\n

Of the thirty-two contestants who entered the game:<\/p>\n

-average prediction: 72,613
-median prediction: 75,000
-high prediction: 83,312
-low prediction: 42,000<\/p>\n

Through ten months, we\u2019ve seen only\u00a054,024<\/strong> sales.<\/p>\n

At this time last year, we had seen 58,750 sales.<\/p>\n

Using that ratio, and using the 67,984 sales from 2024, we could estimate that we\u2019ll see\u00a062,515<\/strong> sales in 2025.<\/p>\n

Using our 5% margin for the prediction game, anybody who predicted between<\/p>\n

The high<\/p>\n

This one is going to be eye-opening.<\/p>\n

Through six months, we\u2019ve only seen 30,983 total sales.<\/p>\n

Double that, and we\u2019re at\u00a061,966, which would not only be the lowest number of sales this millennium (since I started tracking this data) but also way below the previous low of 66,315 from 2013.<\/p>\n

Our 5% margin provides us with a range of:\u00a055,389\u00a0<\/strong>to\u00a065,641.<\/strong><\/p>\n

That means only 3\/32 contestants receive a point:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
J<\/td>\n63,500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Libertarian<\/td>\n60,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vancouver Keith<\/td>\n60,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

These are the same three contestants who received a point in the summer recap, as the needle on sales hasn\u2019t really moved.<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

5) Which\u00a0month<\/em>\u00a0of the year will represent the highest number of total sales? (point scored for correct month)<\/h3>\n

As I noted in this space during the summer, TRREB has a habit of changing the numbers published in \u201cMarket Watch\u201d as the year goes on, but as it stands now, our two highest months for sales are:<\/p>\n

May: 6,244
June: 6,243<\/p>\n

What a narrow margin!<\/p>\n

Only\u00a0four\u00a0<\/em>contestants predicted June, whereas a whopping\u00a0fifteen<\/em> predicted May.<\/p>\n

We saw 6,138 sales in October, so we\u00a0could<\/em> see the yearly high take place in November.<\/p>\n

But as it stands today, the following contestants would receive a point for May:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Different David<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Derek<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daniel<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lauzy<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JG<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dana<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
James S<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ed<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
David Fleming<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
London Agent<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BEAN<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vancouver Keith<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Laurie Hung<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Quiet Bard<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Toad<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

6) Will any individual month of the year see more than 8,000 sales? (point scored for correct Y\/N)<\/h3>\n

As with Question #3, I think we can put a pin in this one, right?<\/p>\n

With the highest number of sales sitting at 6,244, there\u2019s absolutely no way we see 8,000+ in either November or December.<\/p>\n

Incredibly, there were\u00a021<\/strong> contestants who said \u201cyes\u201d and only\u00a011<\/strong> contestants who said \u201cno.\u201d<\/p>\n

Here are the contestants receiving a point for answering in the negative:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Kyle<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Derek<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Marina<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ed<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oscar<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BEAN<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JF007<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vancouver Keith<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
J<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Quiet Bard<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

7) How many total new listings will there be in 2025? (point stored if guess is +\/- 10%).<\/h3>\n

Ooh, here we go!\u00a0 Another chance to make a function in Microsoft Excel\u2026<\/p>\n

Unlike in the summer edition of this blog post, where I simply took the first six months of the year and doubled<\/em> it, I\u2019m going to use another weighted average.<\/p>\n

Through the first ten months of 2025, we\u2019ve seen 169,195 new listings.<\/p>\n

Through the first ten months of 2024, we had seen 148,605 new listings.<\/p>\n

Using that ratio, and basing the trajectory on the 164,878 new listings from 2024, we\u2019re on pace for 187,723 new listings.<\/p>\n

This number is smaller than the estimate from the summer, but new listings were smaller in July and August, so the figure declined.<\/p>\n

Based on our 10% margin for the prediction game, anybody with a prediction of between\u00a0168,950<\/strong> and\u00a0206,495.<\/strong><\/p>\n

That means the following\u00a0eight<\/em> contestants would receive a point:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
JL<\/td>\n180,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dana<\/td>\n179,150<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
James S<\/td>\n177,080<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hoob<\/td>\n177,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Anne<\/td>\n174,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Quiet Bard<\/td>\n173,122<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JF007<\/td>\n170,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vancouver Keith<\/td>\n170,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, Oscar\u2019s prediction of 276,888 is unlikely to be reached.<\/p>\n

But there\u2019s always 2026!<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/h3>\n

8) How many individual months will see more than 20,000 active listings (point scored for correct number)<\/h3>\n

When I drew up this prediction game in early January, I did\u00a0not<\/em> think that this question could end up being the most interesting.<\/p>\n

But here we are in November, and I think that the\u00a0active listings<\/em> statistic is the most fascinating data set of 2025.<\/p>\n

As a refresher, we did not see a single month with more than 20,000 active listings from June of 2019 through April of 2024.<\/p>\n

In 2024, we saw\u00a0seven<\/em> months with more than 20,000 active listings.<\/p>\n

So far in 2025, we\u2019ve seen the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
March<\/td>\n23,462<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
April<\/td>\n27,386<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
May<\/td>\n30,964<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
June<\/td>\n31,603<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
July<\/td>\n30,215<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
August<\/td>\n27,495<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
September<\/td>\n29,394<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October<\/td>\n27,808<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

The trend would tell us that it\u2019s very likely we will see 20,000+ active listings in November.<\/p>\n

In 2024, active listings dropped by 37% from October to December.\u00a0 If this trend continues, we will not see over 20,000 active listings in December.<\/p>\n

While four contestants predicted\u00a08 months<\/strong> and one contestant predicted\u00a010 months<\/strong>, no contestant predicted 9 months!<\/p>\n

At this point, it looks very likely that no point is awarded to a contestant for Question #8.<\/p>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

9) Will any individual month of the year see an average 416 condo price higher than the \u2018peak\u2019 price of $767,064 recorded in May of 2024? (point scored for correct Y\/N)<\/h3>\n

Our peak price in the 416 condo market so far this year was $731,232 in June.<\/p>\n

As of October, that price checked in at $699,241.<\/p>\n

I think we can just about go ahead and award this point, right?<\/p>\n

An incredible 27\/32 contestants predicted \u201cno\u201d for this question, and points would be awarded as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Different David<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kyle<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Derek<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Anwar<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Darek<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daniel<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Marina<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Alex<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dana<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
James S<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KBOZ<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Anne<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ed<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hoob<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
David Fleming<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
London Agent<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oscar<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BEAN<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Libertarian<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JF007<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maureen<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sigruper<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vancouver Keith<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dano<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
J<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Toad<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

10) What will the Bank of Canada policy rate be after the last announcement on December 10th, 2025?) (point scored for correct number)<\/h3>\n

Boy, a\u00a0lot<\/em> has changed here in a few short months!<\/p>\n

When we did our recap in the summer, Darek, JG, Anne, and BEAN were looking at a potential point for their predictions of 2.50%.<\/p>\n

We now know that this will be incorrect.<\/p>\n

I mean, tell me there\u2019s a non-zero chance we see an\u00a0increase<\/em> in policy rate during the Bank of Canada\u2019s scheduled announcement in December, but this isn\u2019t exactly Lloyd Christmas here.<\/p>\n

The policy rate currently sits at 2.25%.<\/p>\n

As I will show in a blog post next week, the markets are pricing in a 10% chance of a cut in December and a 90% chance of no change at all.<\/p>\n

If that\u2019s the case, then the following contestants would recieve a point:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Different David<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
J-C<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Marina<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
JL<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
James S<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maureen<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vancouver Keith<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dano<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Quiet Bard<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u2013<\/p>\n

Wow.<\/p>\n

I just tallied up the results, and it\u2019s wild!<\/p>\n

I really thought\u00a0Derek<\/em> was in the lead there when I saw his 5\/10, but Quiet Bard, Marina, and James S had 5\/10 too.<\/p>\n

Then JL had 6\/10.<\/p>\n

But in alphabetical order, I saved the best for last.<\/p>\n

Vancouver Keith is in the lead with a whopping 8\/10 questions answered correctly!<\/p>\n

Looking forward to seeing how the year finishes!<\/p>\n

Have a great weekend, everybody!<\/p>\n