{"id":306383,"date":"2025-11-20T14:49:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-20T14:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/activist\/ed-dowd-it-has-begun-housing-credit-and-fcf-have-cracked-stocks-are-next\/"},"modified":"2025-11-20T14:49:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-20T14:49:00","slug":"ed-dowd-it-has-begun-housing-credit-and-fcf-have-cracked-stocks-are-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=306383","title":{"rendered":"Ed Dowd: It Has Begun \u2014 Housing, Credit and FCF Have Cracked \u2026 Stocks Are Next"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

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What is a Hindenburg Omen? Why does Ed Dowd think that a deflationary event has already begun\u2026one which will shake the world? Tune in to find out\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

In this podcast, I sit down with Ed Dowd, the former BlackRock portfolio manager, to discuss the AI bubble and how the stock market is entirely being propped up by just 7 companies, most of whom are engaged in what is being termed \u201ccircular financing.\u201d<\/p>\n

That practice hearkens back to the dot.com bubble when companies engaged in what was termed \u2018vendor financing.\u2019\u00a0 In other words, you pay your customers to buy your products.\u00a0 In this era, \u2018circular financing\u2019 is vastly more complicated in is workings, but the essence is exactly the same when the maneuvers are boiled away.<\/p>\n

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<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n

Ed explained that the math just isn\u2019t mathing.\u00a0 OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, needs something like $900 billion of annual subscription revenue at 25% margins just for a 10% ROI.<\/p>\n

Nope, not going to happen.<\/p>\n

And certainly not before their first waves of chips wear out and have to be replaced at enormous cost.<\/p>\n

So, what happens when this bubble bursts?\u00a0 Ed believes that a serious market crash is in the cards.\u00a0 Of course, this means stocks will drop in price, but the main action is going to be in the credit markets.<\/p>\n

Treasuries will continue to advance in price (fall in yield), making them an attractive option to ride out the storm, while other forms of lesser credit will implode, as is already happening across the subprime lender space (TriColor, PrimaLend, First Brands).<\/p>\n

When will this happen?\u00a0 According to Ed, it already is.\u00a0 He tracks the Free Cash Flows (FCF) as the more important arbiter of company health and by that metric, all of the Big 7 companies are experiencing declining FCF, while Oracle\u2019s debt is getting more and more expensive to insure against a default.<\/p>\n

And, oh by the way, stocks are at historically expensive levels, a condition that has historically resulted in very poor returns over the following years:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

Ed\u2019s view is Deflation first (in housing & credit destruction), which will force the Fed back to QE again, leading to a second inflation wave (energy + money printing).<\/p>\n

At the same time, Ed views Trump and Bessent\u2019s messaging on the economy as tone-deaf (\u201cGreatest economy ever!\u201d) while the real economy implodes.\u00a0 Ed thinks that a \u201cHoover scenario\u201d is highly probable, where Trump is remembered for overseeing one of the greatest economic collapses in US history.<\/p>\n

Given all this, what should a prudent investor do?\u00a0 Tune in to hear Ed\u2019s outlooks\u2026<\/p>\n

For those who now realize that having a risk-managed approach is more important than ever, please do yourself a favor and schedule a free, no-obligation meeting with Paul Kiker\u2019s team at Kiker Wealth Management to go over your portfolio and strategy.<\/p>\n

People constantly report back that Paul\u2019s approach and recommendations were exactly what they needed to hear.<\/p>\n

To schedule your initial meeting, please\u00a0visit\u00a0PeakFinancialInvesting.com<\/a>, complete the simple form, and a member of Paul\u2019s team will contact\u00a0you within 48 business hours to arrange the first call.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What is a Hindenburg Omen? Why does Ed Dowd think that a deflationary event has already begun\u2026one which will shake the world? Tune in to find out\u2026 In this podcast, I sit down with Ed Dowd, the former BlackRock portfolio manager, to discuss the AI bubble and how the stock market is entirely being propped […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":306384,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12022],"tags":[19633,137211,5748,235,137214,137212,137215,13350,137213,11046],"dealstore":[],"offerexpiration":[],"class_list":["post-306383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-activist","tag-begun","tag-chris-martenson","tag-cracked","tag-credit","tag-dowd","tag-ed-dowd","tag-fcf","tag-housing","tag-peak-prosperity","tag-stocks"],"yoast_head":"\nEd Dowd: It Has Begun \u2014 Housing, Credit and FCF Have Cracked \u2026 Stocks Are Next - Som2ny Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=306383\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ed Dowd: It Has Begun \u2014 Housing, Credit and FCF Have Cracked \u2026 Stocks Are Next - Som2ny Network\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What is a Hindenburg Omen? 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