The 3.5% Rule: Can We Overturn Authoritarianism If 3.5% Of Us Protest?<\/h2>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/lissarankin.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/no-kings-protest.jpeg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nNo Kings protesters march along Farmers Lane in Santa Rosa, Saturday June 14, 2025. (Kent Porter \/ The Press Democrat)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
My partner\u00a0Dr. Jeffrey Rediger<\/a>\u00a0and I attended two No Kings protests in Sebastapol and Santa Rosa. We were even captured in a\u00a0photo on the front page of our local paper, The Press Democrat!\u00a0My\u00a0resisting\u00a0bitch face with my sign \u201cThis Is My Resisting Bitch Face\u201d says it all. And Jeff is the tall bald guy next to me carrying the Harvard physician and public health advocate Paul Farmer\u2019s quote, \u201cThe idea that some lives matter less is the root of all that is wrong with the world.\u201d<\/p>\nIt was heartening to be in Santa Rosa with many of the brave immigrants who stood up to protest and have their voices heard, along with allies who stood with them. We marched alongside aging hippies and young Latinx youth. We joined forces with trans drag queens and former Trump voters carrying signs that said \u201cWe were conned but we\u2019re onto you now.\u201d Some carried signs that said \u201cToo many issues for one sign,\u201d waved with looks of weary exasperation.<\/p>\n
Some of my favorite signs read:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n- We are low on eggs because all the chickens are in Congress.<\/li>\n
- Super Callous Fascist Racist Sexist Not My POTUS<\/li>\n
- Trump Has A Mugshot. My Dad Doesn\u2019t. (Held by a young Latina woman.)<\/li>\n
- What kind of wine goes with smashing the patriarchy? (We\u2019re in wine country.)<\/li>\n
- When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty.<\/li>\n
- No one is illegal on stolen land.<\/li>\n
- No Faux-King Way<\/li>\n
- The only kings I\u2019m interested in: Martin Luther, Jr, Billie Jean, Stephen, B.B, The Lion, Kong, Carole, Of Leon<\/li>\n
- I Don\u2019t Even Wait. Grab Them By The Pussy (crossed out) Off The Streets. You Can Do Anything.<\/li>\n
- Putting The Dick in Dictator Since 2017.<\/li>\n
- Fascists Can Oligargle Deez Nutz<\/li>\n
- They\u2019re eating the checks. They\u2019re eating the balances.<\/li>\n
- Deer Tick. Dog Tick. Luna Tick. Know Your Parasites.<\/li>\n
- Are We Great Yet, \u2018Cause I Just Feel Embarrassed?<\/li>\n
- Every Time a Christian Defends Trump, An Angel Loses Its Lunch.\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\n\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\nMany of the young people were also very vocal in their protest of the genocide in Gaza, which was also heartening to see. A common chant was \u201cNever again, not for anyone.\u201d We have to be able to talk about what\u2019s happening in Gaza without getting accused of being antisemitic. No genocides anywhere. Never again, for anyone.<\/p>\n
It was also uplifting to see all the massive creativity, the art, the music, the joyful self-expression of people who do not want Donald Trump in office and do not want an authoritarian regime feeling entitled to a hostile takeover of our democracy.<\/p>\n
I took lots of photos and videos just to have evidence so that when the haters accuse protestors of rioting, I have evidence that there was no such thing. There was laughter, music, singing, amazing art signs, and not one bit of violence at the two protests I attended in Sebastapol and Santa Rosa. There was also no military presence and only a few police patrolling.<\/p>\n
If you hear people justifying calling in the National Guard and the Marines because those crazy Californians are rioting, just know they\u2019re lying. The California police and our governor Gavin Newsom have had any violence under control in LA, and elsewhere it\u2019s been peaceful. So don\u2019t listen to the lies. They\u2019re just meant to intimidate us and shut down peaceful protest.<\/p>\n
I have to admit that some of my parts were frightened to go to the protests, given how contentious things got in LA, including that a US Senator (Padilla) got carted off in handcuffs just for asking a question at a press conference. But if we give in to the intimidation, we lose the power of the people. We are more mighty than those $45 million charades of power in DC. It was wonderful to feel that power of the people and the joy in the air in the face of all that hate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
The 3.5% Rule<\/b><\/h2>\n
Have you heard about the research by Chenoweth and Stephan, who analyzed 323 major violent and nonviolent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006? Their research found that nonviolent movements were twice as likely to succeed as violent ones in achieving their political goals, such as overthrowing a dictatorship or ending an occupation. Every single nonviolent movement that actively mobilized at least 3.5% of the population was successful in achieving its goal to overturn an authoritarian regime.<\/p>\n
This \u201c3.5% rule\u201d has become a kind of symbolic threshold to describe the tipping point at which public participation in nonviolent protest can bring down an oppressive or authoritarian regime. In the U.S., 3.5% of the population is about 11.6 million people (based on a population of ~331 million). Estimates for Saturday\u2019s No Kings protests vary, but credible news sources are using the number of 5 million, just under half of what we need to reach the 3.5% rule.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
The 2020 protests following George Floyd\u2019s murder were among the largest in U.S. history\u2014some estimates suggest 15\u201326 million Americans participated over the summer. That\u2019s 4.5% to 8% of the population, surpassing the 3.5% threshold. And yet, BIPOC rights are under threat more than ever now. So the 3.5% rule doesn\u2019t necessarily mean sustained change once protests die down. This is why we have to be solid, determined, relentless, and non-violent in our resistance- until justice is served, equality applies to all Americans, and this regime is overturned by the power of the people.<\/p>\n
Remember, the 3.5% rule is\u00a0descriptive, not prescriptive: It reflects past outcomes in historical case studies, not a rule that guarantees future results.\u00a0 It applies to sustained, organized, and strategic movements, not just one-day protests or social media outrage.\u00a0 The quality of the movement matters: It needs leadership, unity, discipline, and a clear strategy to succeed.<\/p>\n
When protests are suppressed by authoritarian regimes, as when they bring in the military or claim insurrection, to use a country\u2019s military against its own people, this can delay or complicate success of a mission to overturn authoritarianism. Many authoritarian regimes use surveillance, propaganda, and violence to weaken resistance movements.This is why we can\u2019t stop now. We need to ramp up our non-violent resistance, now more than ever, while we still can.<\/p>\n
So\u2026could 3.5% of Americans prevent authoritarianism in the US? The short answer is yes, but only if the movement is strategic, unified, and sustained.\u00a0That\u2019s a massive number, but not unachievable\u2014as we saw in 2020. The key is organization.\u00a0Voting is essential, but it\u2019s not sufficient. Mass protest must be tied to policy goals, election outcomes, and institutional accountability. Civic resistance must transcend partisanship and stay rooted in constitutional values, not culture war narratives. Chenoweth\u2019s findings show that authoritarian regimes can be defeated by the power of the people, but only when that power is wielded intentionally and nonviolently.<\/p>\n
If you\u2019re wondering what you can do, your participation\u00a0matters.<\/i>\u00a0We don\u2019t need everyone to protest. But we do need enough people, with enough conviction, acting together with strategy and heart.\u00a0Keep up the good trouble, everyone. We can\u2019t back down in the face of this kind of oppression. We have to fight for our democracy like it\u2019s the most important thing in our lives. Because it is.\u00a0If you\u2019re not on the\u00a0Indivisible<\/a>,\u00a0Move On<\/a>, and\u00a050501\u00a0<\/a>mailing lists, those are a good way to stay in the know so you can participate in the power of the people. The next major protests are July 16-17, so put it on your calendar!<\/p>\n\u00a0<\/p>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nNo Kings protesters march along Farmers Lane in Santa Rosa, Saturday June 14, 2025. (Kent Porter \/ The Press Democrat)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
My partner\u00a0Dr. Jeffrey Rediger<\/a>\u00a0and I attended two No Kings protests in Sebastapol and Santa Rosa. We were even captured in a\u00a0photo on the front page of our local paper, The Press Democrat!\u00a0My\u00a0resisting\u00a0bitch face with my sign \u201cThis Is My Resisting Bitch Face\u201d says it all. And Jeff is the tall bald guy next to me carrying the Harvard physician and public health advocate Paul Farmer\u2019s quote, \u201cThe idea that some lives matter less is the root of all that is wrong with the world.\u201d<\/p>\n It was heartening to be in Santa Rosa with many of the brave immigrants who stood up to protest and have their voices heard, along with allies who stood with them. We marched alongside aging hippies and young Latinx youth. We joined forces with trans drag queens and former Trump voters carrying signs that said \u201cWe were conned but we\u2019re onto you now.\u201d Some carried signs that said \u201cToo many issues for one sign,\u201d waved with looks of weary exasperation.<\/p>\n Many of the young people were also very vocal in their protest of the genocide in Gaza, which was also heartening to see. A common chant was \u201cNever again, not for anyone.\u201d We have to be able to talk about what\u2019s happening in Gaza without getting accused of being antisemitic. No genocides anywhere. Never again, for anyone.<\/p>\n It was also uplifting to see all the massive creativity, the art, the music, the joyful self-expression of people who do not want Donald Trump in office and do not want an authoritarian regime feeling entitled to a hostile takeover of our democracy.<\/p>\n I took lots of photos and videos just to have evidence so that when the haters accuse protestors of rioting, I have evidence that there was no such thing. There was laughter, music, singing, amazing art signs, and not one bit of violence at the two protests I attended in Sebastapol and Santa Rosa. There was also no military presence and only a few police patrolling.<\/p>\n If you hear people justifying calling in the National Guard and the Marines because those crazy Californians are rioting, just know they\u2019re lying. The California police and our governor Gavin Newsom have had any violence under control in LA, and elsewhere it\u2019s been peaceful. So don\u2019t listen to the lies. They\u2019re just meant to intimidate us and shut down peaceful protest.<\/p>\n I have to admit that some of my parts were frightened to go to the protests, given how contentious things got in LA, including that a US Senator (Padilla) got carted off in handcuffs just for asking a question at a press conference. But if we give in to the intimidation, we lose the power of the people. We are more mighty than those $45 million charades of power in DC. It was wonderful to feel that power of the people and the joy in the air in the face of all that hate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Have you heard about the research by Chenoweth and Stephan, who analyzed 323 major violent and nonviolent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006? Their research found that nonviolent movements were twice as likely to succeed as violent ones in achieving their political goals, such as overthrowing a dictatorship or ending an occupation. Every single nonviolent movement that actively mobilized at least 3.5% of the population was successful in achieving its goal to overturn an authoritarian regime.<\/p>\n This \u201c3.5% rule\u201d has become a kind of symbolic threshold to describe the tipping point at which public participation in nonviolent protest can bring down an oppressive or authoritarian regime. In the U.S., 3.5% of the population is about 11.6 million people (based on a population of ~331 million). Estimates for Saturday\u2019s No Kings protests vary, but credible news sources are using the number of 5 million, just under half of what we need to reach the 3.5% rule.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The 2020 protests following George Floyd\u2019s murder were among the largest in U.S. history\u2014some estimates suggest 15\u201326 million Americans participated over the summer. That\u2019s 4.5% to 8% of the population, surpassing the 3.5% threshold. And yet, BIPOC rights are under threat more than ever now. So the 3.5% rule doesn\u2019t necessarily mean sustained change once protests die down. This is why we have to be solid, determined, relentless, and non-violent in our resistance- until justice is served, equality applies to all Americans, and this regime is overturned by the power of the people.<\/p>\n Remember, the 3.5% rule is\u00a0descriptive, not prescriptive: It reflects past outcomes in historical case studies, not a rule that guarantees future results.\u00a0 It applies to sustained, organized, and strategic movements, not just one-day protests or social media outrage.\u00a0 The quality of the movement matters: It needs leadership, unity, discipline, and a clear strategy to succeed.<\/p>\n When protests are suppressed by authoritarian regimes, as when they bring in the military or claim insurrection, to use a country\u2019s military against its own people, this can delay or complicate success of a mission to overturn authoritarianism. Many authoritarian regimes use surveillance, propaganda, and violence to weaken resistance movements.This is why we can\u2019t stop now. We need to ramp up our non-violent resistance, now more than ever, while we still can.<\/p>\n So\u2026could 3.5% of Americans prevent authoritarianism in the US? The short answer is yes, but only if the movement is strategic, unified, and sustained.\u00a0That\u2019s a massive number, but not unachievable\u2014as we saw in 2020. The key is organization.\u00a0Voting is essential, but it\u2019s not sufficient. Mass protest must be tied to policy goals, election outcomes, and institutional accountability. Civic resistance must transcend partisanship and stay rooted in constitutional values, not culture war narratives. Chenoweth\u2019s findings show that authoritarian regimes can be defeated by the power of the people, but only when that power is wielded intentionally and nonviolently.<\/p>\n If you\u2019re wondering what you can do, your participation\u00a0matters.<\/i>\u00a0We don\u2019t need everyone to protest. But we do need enough people, with enough conviction, acting together with strategy and heart.\u00a0Keep up the good trouble, everyone. We can\u2019t back down in the face of this kind of oppression. We have to fight for our democracy like it\u2019s the most important thing in our lives. Because it is.\u00a0If you\u2019re not on the\u00a0Indivisible<\/a>,\u00a0Move On<\/a>, and\u00a050501\u00a0<\/a>mailing lists, those are a good way to stay in the know so you can participate in the power of the people. The next major protests are July 16-17, so put it on your calendar!<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\nSome of my favorite signs read:<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\n
\n\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n
The 3.5% Rule<\/b><\/h2>\n