{"id":287564,"date":"2025-06-11T08:18:18","date_gmt":"2025-06-11T08:18:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/peraltafinancing.com\/business\/real-estate\/may-trreb-stats-past-present-or-future\/"},"modified":"2025-06-11T08:18:18","modified_gmt":"2025-06-11T08:18:18","slug":"may-trreb-stats-past-present-or-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fivemor.com\/?p=287564","title":{"rendered":"May TRREB Stats: Past, Present, Or Future?"},"content":{"rendered":"


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You\u2019ve heard this one from me many times before, but I am convinced that over the last decade, there have been no two greater topics of discussion in Toronto than the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Toronto real estate market.<\/p>\n

These two things have a lot in common, however.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re both infuriating.\u00a0 They\u2019re both depressing.\u00a0 They\u2019re both fun to cheer for at times and fun to cheer against<\/em> later on.<\/p>\n

They\u2019re both exceptionally over-priced and they both underachieve relative to expectations.<\/p>\n

And what I\u2019ve noticed more so lately is that they both initiate conversations relative to the past, present, and future.<\/p>\n

Many people like to look at the Toronto Maple Leafs\u2019\u00a0past<\/em> rather fondly, especially as it compares to the present<\/em>.\u00a0 But consider this: while the Toronto Maple Leafs have won thirteen Stanley Cups, they won\u00a0all thirteen<\/em> of those championships when there were only six teams in the league.\u00a0 There are thirty-two now.<\/p>\n

Perhaps we have a way of glorifying the past without thinking about how it looks through a present-value lens?<\/p>\n

When it comes to the Toronto real estate market, we could probably divide people into three groups: those who are interested in where the market\u00a0is<\/em>, those who want to know where it\u2019s going<\/em>, and those who are completely obsessed with the past<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The latter group is having a tough time out there right now.<\/p>\n

As I have written previously, and as I will share in a blog post this week or next, far too many sellers are looking at where prices\u00a0were<\/em> without thinking about where prices\u00a0are<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Then again, every buyer out there is focused on where prices are going<\/em> rather than where prices\u00a0are<\/em>, relative to where they\u00a0were<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Do you follow?<\/p>\n

A buyer in today\u2019s market should be primarily concerned with where prices\u00a0are<\/em>, and be looking at where prices are\u00a0going<\/em> as a second take.\u00a0 To look at where prices\u00a0were\u00a0<\/em>doesn\u2019t have all that much value, unless the buyer is looking to feel good about his or her purchase, or, if the buyer wants to use the\u00a0past<\/em> to predict the\u00a0future<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The media, to their credit, seem to be primarily reporting on where the market\u00a0is<\/em>, rather than where it\u00a0was<\/em>.\u00a0 I\u2019m surprised I\u2019m not seeing more articles about how much prices have declined in this area, or that area, since this date, or that date.<\/p>\n

That has to do with\u00a0prices<\/em>, however.\u00a0 When it comes to\u00a0sales<\/em>, the media have definitely run with the statistics on new home sales, notably that they\u2019re down 90% from the ten-year average.<\/p>\n

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New home sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1996.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

That\u2019s a sexy headline.\u00a0 I\u2019m not surprised to have seen that many times.<\/p>\n

Speaking of \u201cnot being surprised,\u201d I am also not surprised that the media isn\u2019t doing any reporting on price expectations, or more specifically, making any predictions on where the market is going.\u00a0 Maybe there\u2019s just no value-add there?\u00a0 Maybe the real estate headlines are already catchy enough?<\/p>\n

My favorite saying has always been, \u201cYou can make numbers say anything you want.<\/p>\n

So here\u2019s something:<\/p>\n

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The average GTA<\/strong> home price, as of May, 2025, is\u00a0down<\/em> by 16.0% since the peak in February of 2022.<\/p>\n

The average 416<\/strong> home price, as of May, 20215, is\u00a0down<\/em> by 4.6% since the peak in February of 2022.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

What does that have to do with last month\u2019s TRREB stats?<\/p>\n

Nothing, really.\u00a0 Just making a point before we begin\u2026<\/p>\n

The GTA average home price increased by\u00a01.2%<\/strong>, month-over-month, from $1,107,463 in April to $1,120879 in May.<\/p>\n

For those who felt that the market was in freefall, or at the very least, in decline, the statistics would disagree.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a refresher from 2023 to current:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Our high-water mark remains May of 2023 when the average home price was just shy of $1.2 Million at $1,196,101.<\/p>\n

Of course, we came into 2024 asking, \u201cWill we top $1.2 Million this year?\u201d<\/p>\n

We did not.\u00a0 But the average home price\u00a0did<\/em> peak in May of 2024, as it did in 2023, albeit at a mere $1,165,691.<\/p>\n

Then along came May of 2025.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re down about\u00a04%<\/strong> on a year-over-year basis, which lines up with the data from April as well.<\/p>\n

Since that 2023 \u201cpeak,\u201d we\u2019re off about 6%.<\/p>\n

Given the disparity between\u00a0sales<\/em> and\u00a0inventory<\/em>, you could argue that it\u2019s shocking we\u2019re not off by 40%, as you would expect to see in another industry for a different product.<\/p>\n

That 1.2% month-over-month increase is\u00a0also\u00a0<\/em>in line with historical trends for the period April-to-May:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

We all remember the pronounced market dips in 2017 and 2022, so it\u2019s not surprising to see those figures in\u00a0red<\/em>.\u00a0 But the only other red figures are declines of 0.3%, 0.1%, and 0.1%, so it\u2019s as though a price increase from April to May is automatic.<\/p>\n

The big question, however, is\u00a0will we peak in May<\/em>?<\/p>\n

If history is any indication, we\u2019ve hit the spring peak\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

I could provide you with any number of reasons why the spring market in 2025 will be different, but if you\u2019re simply playing the odds, history tells us that there\u2019s a 62.5% chance that\u00a0May<\/em> will represent the spring pricing peak.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s anybody\u2019s guess as to whether the average home price will be higher in June than it was in May, but I believe, no matter what happens, it\u2019s a function of\u00a0sales<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Sales, or a lack thereof.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t get me wrong, there\u2019s a\u00a0lot<\/em> for sale right now!\u00a0 But fewer buyers are pulling the trigger, and while I think that many folks who continue to sit on the sidelines will regret this in 18 months, that\u2019s a whole other can of worms.<\/p>\n

For now, sales are continuing to represent record lows:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Ignoring May of\u00a02020<\/em>, which was affected by the pandemic, last month\u2019s sales are the lowest in any month of may, all time.<\/p>\n

This follows the trend from March and April which\u00a0also<\/em> saw the fewest sales of all time in those respective months.<\/p>\n

But its not like the number of sales are\u00a0declining<\/em>, at least on a relative basis.<\/p>\n

Sales were up\u00a011.5%<\/strong> on a month-over-month basis, and that\u2019s not a given in the period April-to-May.\u00a0 In fact, sales have\u00a0decreased<\/em> from April to May in three of the last four years:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yes, we saw the lowest sales of all time in May, but it\u2019s simply a continuation of an\u00a0existing<\/em> trend and doesn\u2019t reflect a market that is increasingly declining.<\/p>\n

As for\u00a0new listings<\/em>, the following comes as no surprise:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The only surprise might be the fact that a whopping 21,819 new listings are\u00a0not<\/em> the all-time record for the month of May.<\/p>\n

Many of us remember the market in the spring of 2017 which saw a decline in prices and activity, paired with an increase in listings, that made 2022 look like a walk in the park.<\/p>\n

All told, we saw the\u00a0fewest\u00a0<\/em>sales in May and the\u00a0second-most<\/em> new listings in May, which is going to provide for an all-time low absorption rate, or sales-to-new-listings ratio.<\/p>\n

Think back to 2016 when the ratio was a whopping 73.7% in May.<\/p>\n

That pales in comparison to what we saw last month\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The 28.6% figure is eye-catching.<\/p>\n

But the fact that it\u2019s 9.1%\u00a0lower<\/em> than the next-lowest on the list (which happens to be 2024) is all the more fascinating.<\/p>\n

For those playing along at home, this means we\u2019ve hit a new 2025-low for the absorption rate, with that 28.6% figure just coming in below March\u2019s 29.0%:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

As the previous years show us, the SNLR\u00a0does<\/em> decline in the period April-May-June, but how much lowe could it go in June?<\/p>\n

For the record, the lowest monthly SNLR on the chart above was 27.6% in September of 2024.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s one statistic that I\u2019d like to talk about today, which I don\u2019t\u00a0usually\u00a0<\/em>talk about.<\/p>\n

Active listings.<\/p>\n

All these statistics are related, and since we look at\u00a0sales<\/em> and\u00a0new listings<\/em>, as well as the\u00a0absorption rate<\/em>, we don\u2019t really need to consider \u201cactive listings\u201d on a regular basis.\u00a0 Active listings is an exact tally of what is available on the last day of every month, essentially a measure of the previous month\u2019s holdovers, plus new listings, minus sales.<\/p>\n

As I said: all these statistics are related, and just as \u201cmonths of inventory\u201d or MOI is the\u00a0inverse<\/em> of the \u201csales-to-new-listings\u201d ratio or SNLR, we also know that active listings will increase as the SNLR gets lower.<\/p>\n

But coming off a month when the SNLR was only 28.6%, it seems to reason that active listings were going be high.<\/p>\n

How high?<\/p>\n

Well, as Redman & Methodman once said, \u201cSo high that I could kiss the sky\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n

There were\u00a030,694<\/strong> active listings at the end of May, 2025.<\/p>\n

That is the most\u00a0ever<\/em> recorded in a single month:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a\u00a0lot<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The second-most of all-time was in April, and we saw a 13.1% increase, month-over-month.<\/p>\n

Assuming that sales will\u00a0not<\/em> outpace new listings in June, then active listings will increase.\u00a0 Again.<\/p>\n

Another 13.1% increase would put this figure at a whopping 35,020.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Then again, many sellers could simply terminate their listings before summer begins, so we don\u2019t really need to rely on sales to cover new listings.\u00a0 But either way, this is a figure to watch as we move forward!<\/p>\n

Before we depart, I\u2019ll leave you with this:<\/p>\n

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A colleague of mine suggested that the only reason why the GTA average home price wasn\u2019t lower is because the condominium market is so weak, condo sales are scarce, and thus the average home price is being \u201cpropped up\u201d by the fact that there are proportionally fewer condo sales than usual.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Agree?<\/p>\n

Disagree?<\/p>\n

Anybody want to do the research here?<\/p>\n

Otherwise, I\u2019ll put this in the queue for next Monday\u2026<\/p>\n